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ABFRL Diversified 31 Oct 2024

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Limited — Q2 FY25

ABFRL reported Q2FY25 consolidated revenue of INR 3,644 crore (+13% YoY) and EBITDA of INR 410 crore (+11% YoY) with an 11.2% margin.

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Revenue ₹3,644 Cr +13%
EBITDA ₹410 Cr +11%
EBITDA Margin 11.2%
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ABFRL reported Q2FY25 consolidated revenue of INR 3,644 crore (+13% YoY) and EBITDA of INR 410 crore (+11% YoY) with an 11.2% margin. PAT was negative INR 215 crore due to higher depreciation and interest from TCNS consolidation. The demand environment remained subdued, but festive and wedding spending provided some uplift. Pantaloons delivered a standout performance with EBITDA margin expanding 560 bps YoY to 15%, driven by tight discount control and cost efficiencies. The ethnic business grew 3x YoY to INR 454 crore, aided by TCNS and Tarun Tahiliani. TMRW more than doubled revenue. Management expects improved H2 conditions and plans to complete the demerger by year-end. Risk: sustained weakness in smaller markets could pressure like-to-like growth.

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Weak demand in smaller markets

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Quarter Snapshot

Pantaloons EBITDA margin 15%
+560bps YoY

Pantaloons EBITDA margin expanded significantly due to better planning and cost control.

Ethnic business revenue INR 454 crore
+3x YoY

Ethnic business grew more than three times, driven by TCNS and Tarun Tahiliani.

TMRW revenue growth >100% YoY
+100%+ YoY

TMRW portfolio more than doubled, including inorganic growth from TIGC.

Net debt INR 3,759 crore
+INR 800-900 crore H1

Net debt increased due to investments in ethnic business and acquisitions.

What Changed vs Last Quarter

Comparing Q2 FY25 vs Q1 FY25
3 new guidance2 dropped4 new risk3 risk resolved
NEW
TCNS to break even by Q3FY25

TCNS business is on track to become profitable in Q3FY25, with improving product quality and margins.

NEW
Debt reduction of INR 400-500 crore in H2

Management expects net debt to reduce by INR 400-500 crore in the second half due to seasonal sales pickup.

NEW
Lifestyle brands double-digit CAGR growth

Management expects lifestyle brands to sustain double-digit revenue CAGR over the long term.

UPDATED
Pantaloons store expansion of 20-25 stores per year

Pantaloons plans to open 20-25 stores annually, focusing on larger stores in urban and Tier 1 markets.

DROPPED
TCNS to turn EBITDA positive in H2 FY25

Management expects TCNS to become profitable in the second half of FY25 as inventory corrections are largely complete.

DROPPED
Demerger completion by end of FY25

The demerger of the branded business is expected to be completed by end of fiscal year 2025.

NEW RISK
Weak demand in smaller markets

Smaller markets continue to underperform, pressuring like-to-like growth for Pantaloons and lifestyle brands.

NEW RISK
Impact of warm October on winter sales

An analyst raised concern about warm weather affecting winter portfolio; management downplayed but acknowledged risk.

NEW RISK
High debt and interest burden

Net debt of INR 3,759 crore and elevated interest costs are impacting PAT, especially in H1.

NEW RISK
Franchisee stress limiting expansion

Franchisee partners are cautious due to prolonged demand weakness, slowing store additions in smaller towns.

RISK GONE
Weak demand environment may persist

Consumer spending remains subdued due to a weak wedding season and heat wave; recovery is dependent on H2 festive season.

RISK GONE
TCNS turnaround may take longer

TCNS losses have been higher than expected; management acknowledged that full recovery to historical margins may take 12-18 months.

RISK GONE
TMRW losses increasing

TMRW losses have increased sequentially, and management paused acquisitions until fundraising is completed.

🤫 Topics management stopped discussing

Pantaloons store additions moderated to 35-40 stores in FY24

Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q1 FY25, Q2 FY24, Q3 FY24

Pantaloons plans to add 20-25 stores in FY25, with expansion back-ended.

TCNS integration and recovery uncertainty

Mentioned in Q2 FY24, Q3 FY24, Q4 FY24

TCNS posted losses (EBITDA -INR 41 crore in 6 months) and revenue declined 21% YoY in Q4 due to distribution rationalization.

Debt target of INR 2,700-2,800 crore by March 2024

Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24

Management reiterated debt guidance of INR 2,700-2,800 crore by end of FY24, including GIC warrant proceeds of ~INR 1,400 crore expected by March.

Demerger completion by end of FY25

Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q4 FY24

The demerger of the branded business is expected to be completed by end of fiscal year 2025.

Innerwear business continued losses

Mentioned in Q2 FY24, Q4 FY24

The innerwear business remains unprofitable due to athleisure decline, with only intermittent quarterly profits.

Fast read

Guidance and risk preview

Top guidance TCNS to break even by Q3FY25

TCNS business is on track to become profitable in Q3FY25, with improving product quality and margins.

Top risk Weak demand in smaller markets

Smaller markets continue to underperform, pressuring like-to-like growth for Pantaloons and lifestyle brands.

View Risks →