UltraTech Cement — Q2 FY25

ULTRACEMCO Q2 24/25 Earnings Conference Call https://stockanalysis.com/quote/nse/ULTRACEMCO/transcripts/208413-q2-24-25/ Published: sourced from public earnings transcript

Operator Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the UltraTech Cement Limited Q2 FY25 earnings conference call. We must remind you that the discussion on today's call may include certain forward-looking statements and must be therefore viewed in conjunction with the risks that the company faces. The company assumes no responsibility to publicly amend, modify, or revise any forward-looking statement on the basis of any subsequent development, information, or events or otherwise. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Atul Daga, CFO of the company. Thank you, and over to you, Mr. Daga. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Thank you. Good evening, everybody, and welcome to this earnings call today. This quarter, I believe, has turned out as expected. Pre-election slowdown, followed by a slowdown in April, June, with elections, and then monsoons, which have been intense in most parts of the country, and also the longer duration of monsoons this season. Some parts of the country have been witnessing rains as of now, also. All of this put together has resulted into UltraTech's capacity utilization at 68%, delivering a 3% growth in volume terms. Good monsoons is not just not good for the short term, but results in a good season for rural markets in the long run with improved cash flows. Thus, we understand and expect good rural demands in the coming seasons. Agricultural production for both summer and winter crops is likely to be higher, as reflected by the sowing activities during summers and increasing water reservoir levels, which bode well for the winter season. We have to also keep in mind global events which have an impact, which do not directly impact our business because it's domestic, but global events being of the nature that they are, can always have an indirect impact. Ocean trades, to name one of the key elements which can go up and impact our input costs. China has introduced a stimulus package. We have not yet seen the big impact on the global market, but I'm sure there will be some positive, some negative out of that. Let me come to the burning question of all quarters: fuel costs. Our high-cost fuel contracts have almost come to an end, with a very small impact left in Q3. You would have noticed petcoke ratios have gone up 54% this quarter, and rupees per Gcal has dropped to INR 1.84 from about INR 2 in the last quarter, a decline of almost 8% QOQ. The most important factor would be demand, which we need to keep an eye on. Urban housing has been doing well so far, as is being visible from the growing number of registered projects across the country. We believe that new infrastructure projects orders will start gaining momentum, although it has been a subdued start from Q1 and during the quarter in the reporting. We believe that things have started moving and awards have started picking up. 589 kilometers of road projects have been awarded by NHAI and MoRTH, though lower on a year-to-year basis. During the quarter, various projects approved to improve country's infrastructure have come to light. Some of them are Chennai Metro, INR 63,000 crores; Mumbai Ring Roads , INR 58,000 crores; Pune Ring Roads, another INR 42,000 crores. The PMGSY for INR 70,000 crores, out of which INR 52,000 crores is for roads. Central government approval for Bangalore Metro Phase Three, approval for Thane Integrated Metro Rail Project, and so on and so forth. The list will keep on increasing. We are very confident that there is not going to be a slowdown. These are just few announcements, as I mentioned. With the government's continued stress on infrastructure, investment outlay is estimated to increase to about INR 75 trillion over the next five years, increasing to 1.6x from investments of INR 47 trillion over the last five years. Housing launches are continuously growing at double digits since last three years. Urban population in the country has increased from 26% in 1990 to about 36% in 2024, and we believe that the pace of urbanization will continuously accelerate further. Urbanization is gonna lead to increase in demand for housing across all categories: affordable, mid-level, luxury, ultra luxury. Also, we have to keep in mind that this is forming a low base, this quarter is forming a low base, which will generate a good growth in percentage terms. We are also seeing improvement in demand in the commercial space, which is represented by commercial offices, warehouses, data centers, and the likes. Talking about our own growth plans, our expansion projects are on track, and we will commission another eight million tons of capacity in H2, taking us to 157 million tons of capacity by the end of fiscal 2025. As per our announced organic growth plans, we should be reaching 184 million tons of capacity by FY 2027 in India. On to the acquisitions, RAK White, a white cement company which we had invested in a couple of years ago, became a subsidiary with effect from 10 July this year. The results of RAK White have been incorporated in our consolidated financial statements. The cement business of Kesoram that is under acquisition, the transaction is in its last phases, with the NCLT hearings scheduled on 25th October and 12th November for Kesoram and UltraTech, respectively. We hope that there are no delays in these processes, and this being the last step, the transaction should see a conclusion in Q4 FY2025. With respect to the acquisition that we had announced for India Cements, we are awaiting CCI approval for the transaction, after which the open offer will be launched. Let me come back to the efficiency improvement program that we had talked about, I think, a couple of quarters ago. Our efficiency improvement program is very specific, precise, and measurable. We started tracking this program from the close of fiscal 2024, and let me reiterate the various line items included therein. WHRS capacity, we had ended the financial year with 278 MW. Currently, we are at 308 MW and will reach 450 MW by the end of fiscal 2027. Renewable energy capacity, we were at 612 MW at the beginning of the year. We have reached 681 MW as of now, and we will be reaching 1.8 GW by fiscal 2027. Clinker conversion ratio is again on track from 1.44 to 1.54 by FY 2027. Alternate fuel mix is set to rise from 5% at the end of fiscal 2024 to 15% at the end of fiscal 2027. Lead distance, as we already have spoken about, has started dropping, and we will see further drop and definitely reach about 360 kilometers by fiscal 2027. Over and above that, there are smaller areas like power consumption reduction, efficiency improvement in operations, operating leverage, all of them will be delivered in each year, step by step. To summarize, UltraTech today is at 150.66 million tons of capacity. March 2025, we should be reaching about 159 million tons of capacity. By the end of Q2 fiscal 2027, we should be touching around 180 million tons of capacity, wherein I'm not including the acquisitions in progress and anything in future. All the efficiency improvement programs that I've talked about will be delivering delta gains on the expanded base, and this is what, to my mind, is a sustainability agenda for us. With that, I don't have anything else to add further in this commentary, and I hand it over for questions. Operator Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets when asking questions. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from Amit Murarka, from Axis Capital. Please go ahead. Amit Murarka Equity Research Analyst, Axis Capital Yeah. Hi, good evening, Mr. Daga. Thanks for the opportunity. So, the first question is on the fuel cost. So you had guided for normalization of fuel cost by the Q3, and it's good to see a sharp drop in Q2 itself. So could you help understand, like, in Q3 or by Q4, what could be the expected fuel cost when you kind of normalize back to the spot cost levels? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited It should drop further, Amit. And as I mentioned, on average, we would have a consumption of give or take three million tons of fuel between coal and pet coke. It's not just the cost of purchase, but the fuel mix also is equally important. And you would have noticed that we have gone up on pet coke significantly, which will keep on going up further. What will the number be like? Difficult for me to give you an exact estimate, but we will be going down south only. Amit Murarka Equity Research Analyst, Axis Capital Sure. And also on your costs, so I see that there's a sharp jump in employee costs. I know you do annual increments from Q2, but it's almost a 24% QOQ jump. So is there any one-off, one-time bonus or anything like that in that? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Yeah, there have been one-time bonus or extra bonuses which were given during this period, so our average increase should be around 9%-10%, and over and above that would be one-off. Amit Murarka Equity Research Analyst, Axis Capital Okay. And lastly, on the other expenses as well, like last quarter, you had said that you had higher marketing spends. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Correct. Amit Murarka Equity Research Analyst, Axis Capital But, the other expenses, at least on a percent basis, have gone up another INR 100. So how do we think about other expenses now? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Other expenses, right. Operator Maintenance cost is the one- Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited So, no. Okay. In the printed accounts, because all the maintenance costs are included in other expenses, this being the quarter for maintenance, that is where you will see other expenses always being higher as compared to remaining quarters. Amit Murarka Equity Research Analyst, Axis Capital Yeah, no, I know, but I thought that Q1 was a bit elevated because of some one-off marketing spends, so. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Q1 had that one-off, you know, expense, which will not be there, now or in future. This quarter we had maintenance shutdown costs, which are part of my other expenses. Amit Murarka Equity Research Analyst, Axis Capital Got it. Thanks. I'll come back in the Q&A. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Sure. Operator Thank you. The next question is from Raashi Chopra from Citigroup. Please go ahead. Raashi Chopra Analyst, Citigroup Global Markets India Pvt Ltd Thank you. So could you just tell us a little bit on pricing, in the sense that, what's happened after the quarter? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited How come I missed on the favorite question for everybody? Prices have been improving, while you know, the average for the quarter will be a misrepresentation of things going forward. From August to September also we saw improvement in prices, and September to October also, the prices have been steady. So we have seen an improvement from INR 347, which was August exit, to about INR 354 currently. Raashi Chopra Analyst, Citigroup Global Markets India Pvt Ltd On average versus the Q2? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited One second. The Q2 average was about INR 348, which is now INR 354. Raashi Chopra Analyst, Citigroup Global Markets India Pvt Ltd Got it. Thank you. And in this quarter, the other operating income seems to have moved up sequentially. What is that attributable to? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited There were incentives. Dhar incentives ? Yeah, there was a plant incentive which kicked in, long overdue. Raashi Chopra Analyst, Citigroup Global Markets India Pvt Ltd Okay, so this should continue? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited No, this was again, there'll be small portions left, but not forever. Maybe one or two more quarters, we might see a decent incentive income. Raashi Chopra Analyst, Citigroup Global Markets India Pvt Ltd Okay. And on the last question, on India Cements, the CCI approval is awaited. Is there any sort of delay or, I mean- Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited No, no, no. It's a normal process. So there was first query list which was received, which we responded to on the twelfth of October. There might be one more list of queries if it comes in, otherwise nothing else. So there are a lot of questions around, you know, details of markets and where we are selling, where India Cement is selling, et cetera. Raashi Chopra Analyst, Citigroup Global Markets India Pvt Ltd So likely closure within this fiscal? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Yes, within this fiscal, the confidence level is very high. Raashi Chopra Analyst, Citigroup Global Markets India Pvt Ltd Okay. Okay, thank you. Operator Thank you. The next question is from Prateek Kumar from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Prateek Kumar SVP, Jefferies India Yeah, good morning, sir. My first question is on pricing versus, or profitability versus volumes. So our current quarter EBITDA per ton is like sort of probably four- or five-year low on a quarterly basis at least. So is there a point where you as a company or industry probably like look at the profitability versus volumes, or how should we look at going forward? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Demand is the key for any industry. So if demand is good, everything falls in line. So we would fundamentally focus on how India is shaping, how India is growing in the next few years. And I guess, the hypothesis of seven to eight percent growth is still there, will be there, and India will deliver that growth, which means we will deliver that growth higher than that. So I think, maybe I've not answered your question fully. If there is growth, obviously there will be profitability. Prateek Kumar SVP, Jefferies India Yeah, of course, growth will be in the profitability, but like, your whole cost-cutting initiatives, industry cost, labor cost coming down seems to already more than, more than passed to the consumer. Historically, we have, as an industry, like, looked at better profits generally. It seems there is a significant deviation from there, and even like for second half, not sure how much better pattern we are looking for improvement overall, but maybe related question, like, if there is a prolonged slowdown in demand, do we really look, relook at our organic expansion plans at all or like how should we look at capacity expansion also? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited No, no, no. So, you know, these, the one quarter, two quarter slowdowns will not impact our underlying hypothesis of growth. We are not slowing down on our growth agenda. That's very clear, because we don't get disturbed by these one quarter, two quarter, you know, upsets. Fundamentally, we need to believe that India will deliver a 7%-8% CAGR growth. That is happening, and that is why I downloaded some data, which I, you know, read out, just now, on various projects which the government has started announcing. Rural markets have started growing, rural housing has started growing. If you, if you are looking at a short-term, window, then good monsoons, which have depressed cement sector this quarter, will be a positive gain for April, June quarter when, crop harvesting takes place. Which we are already seeing right now, rural demand. The FMCG sector is positive about rural demand. We are seeing positive trajectory in rural demand also. Prateek Kumar SVP, Jefferies India Okay. And then, other question is on white segment revenues, which like sort of slipped 10% year-on-year this quarter. Any specific reason there? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited I'm sorry, what? Prateek Kumar SVP, Jefferies India The white segment revenues was like lower year-on-year than- Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited The prices were depressed. Cement prices have taken a beating this quarter. Prateek Kumar SVP, Jefferies India Okay. Is that continuing or like, they expected to revise? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited No, no, I think they have stabilized. We have not seen decrease in prices as of now. Prateek Kumar SVP, Jefferies India Sure. Thank you, Atul. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Thank you. Operator Thank you. The next question is from Rahul Gupta from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Rahul Gupta Analyst, Morgan Stanley Hi. Thank you for taking my question. Atul sir, I have one broad question, which may not be a near-term thing. Just want to understand one thing. You have been continuously surprising positively on realization versus what we see on pan-India prices. If I look at, if I compare numbers for the last quarter, your trade segment has not changed much. So what drives UltraTech's continued delivery on realization versus the industry? Just to understand this better. Thank you. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited So I think this is a compliment for us. Thank you for that. It all boils down to us being building solutions provider, us being top-notch in quality, us being able to meet our customer requirements with a strong dealer network footprint. And being consistently brand A player, we have maintained our positioning, brand positioning, our quality parameters, never compromising over there, which is helping us deliver whatever we are delivering. Rahul Gupta Analyst, Morgan Stanley Thank you, sir. Sir, just a follow-up on this. Is it fair to say that, apart from being a preferred brand, you being a pan-India player, helps you cushion some of the regional disturbances on prices? Or, is it a more multiple? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited You know, pan-India presence, the diversity of our physical presence comes to our advantage as well as disadvantage. So when let's say there is an imbalanced movement in one particular region, that will have an overhang on our results. But luckily, as we are growing forward, our own capacity would be balanced across all regions. That will help us to be a really diverse, diversified player and will not get impacted by any regional imbalances. Rahul Gupta Analyst, Morgan Stanley That's very clear, and thank you so much. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Next question. Operator Thank you. The next question is from Sumangal Nevatia, from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead. Sumangal Nevatia Director, Kotak Securities Yeah, good evening, everyone. Thanks for the chance. So my first question is on industry demand. So is it possible to share your sense what would have been the industry demand growth in second quarter? And in your presentation, we see a lot of down arrows across regions. Is it possible to give some color as to some regional color and in our growth, I mean, looks like we would have grown in some region and we have seen some decline. So some region-wise color specifics will be very helpful, sir. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Sumangal, all India, I believe the demand would be negative or zero or, you know, between -0.5% to 1%. As for specific regions, I won't have exact percentage color, but the direction which we have indicated are based on whatever information we have. But till we have competition results declared, we will not be able to comment on that. Sumangal Nevatia Director, Kotak Securities Okay. But the east and south, I mean, there are a lot of down arrows. I mean, is it a firm decline on our volumes in these two regions, or? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited We have grown. Sumangal Nevatia Director, Kotak Securities Okay. Okay, got it. Got it. So second question on the fuel cost versus what we are doing at around 1.85. I mean, I understand the trajectory is downwards and difficult to say guide on the timeline, but just for our understanding, at the spot level of pet coke, say, around $95, what would be the cost? I mean, of course, timeline will depend on inventory, but some- Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited No. So, you know, so, you know, from our 1.84 , we could drop ten points further. As for current prices, I think it has plateaued. We'll have to wait and watch the global events on how markets shape up. Not seeing too much of volume in terms of supplies taking place at these levels. Sumangal Nevatia Director, Kotak Securities Okay, understand. And just the last one, I mean, for India Cement, we are expecting the CCI by what, November end or December, any Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Oh, it's, you know, it's difficult for us to comment. Typically, after we have responded to their, you know, queries, it could take two months, it could take three months, depending upon any further queries. Sumangal Nevatia Director, Kotak Securities Okay. But based on the queries, do we see any risk or any? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited No risk. It's only a matter of time. These are- Sumangal Nevatia Director, Kotak Securities Okay. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited I would say, statistical questions which CCI also needs to be sure about by analyzing the way they ask questions, that there's no consolidation or there's no, you know, monopolistic situation in any micro market. That is what they analyze. So we don't foresee any challenge in getting the approvals. It's a process one has to follow. Sumangal Nevatia Director, Kotak Securities Understand. Got it, sir. That's all from my side. All the best. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Thank you. Operator Thank you. The next question is from Parth Bhavsar from Investec. Please go ahead. Parth Bhavsar Equity Research Associate, Investec India Hi, sir. So thank you for the opportunity. So I have one question. So we are adding approximately fifteen million tons this year, and we have, you know, acquired Kesoram and India Cements. So going ahead in a situation where, you know, the demand is not strong, so would we go after market share gains, or would we, you know... Like, how would we, you know, go about the market share? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited And so our game plan, long-term game plan is always profitable growth. I think these two words sum up what we want to do. We want to grow. We want to deliver profitability also. Parth Bhavsar Equity Research Associate, Investec India Okay. So you would, like, hold up your pricing, like, just in case, like, and you won't go after market share? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited I would drop prices, yeah. It's day-to-day business, so whether tomorrow, if God forbid, if there is a war, then something, anything could happen. So as of now, given the status quo, we expect the demand should start rising, and I'm still looking at double digit growth for H2, which will deliver our numbers, and you will see improvement in profitability. Parth Bhavsar Equity Research Associate, Investec India Okay. Okay. Thank you so much, sir. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Thank you. Operator Thank you. The next question is from Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead. Shravan Shah Director Research, Dolat Capital Market Pvt Ltd Yeah. So, double digit growth for us, for H2 and for industry, how much we are looking at, for H2? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited I think we will deliver better than the industry. Shravan Shah Director Research, Dolat Capital Market Pvt Ltd Okay. Okay, got it. And is it possible, sir, in terms of the 68% utilization for second quarter, can you break it down region-wise for us, how was the utilization? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Would be average, plus, minus here or there, yeah. Shravan Shah Director Research, Dolat Capital Market Pvt Ltd Okay. And, CapEx for full year, now, last time you said INR 8-9,000 crore, so- Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited We will, we will spend that money. We are on track. We will spend that money. Shravan Shah Director Research, Dolat Capital Market Pvt Ltd For next year also, the similar run rate one can look at? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Yes, because after this, concluding this year, we would have almost 20 million tons of expansion to complete, which will see its regular outflow. Shravan Shah Director Research, Dolat Capital Market Pvt Ltd Okay. And in terms of the cost savings that previously we have talked about, around INR 300 per ton, definitely we have also given in terms of the line item-wise. But how much we have already achieved in this year and next year? Possible, if you can share, how much more cost reduction from here on we can look at? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Yeah, so, you know, instead of doing on a quarter-to-quarter basis, it is not logical, and I'll explain that to you. We will definitely showcase at the end of the year what the achievement has been. And now to come to the point why each quarter is not relevant, because, for example, lead distance. We have reduced substantially, but being monsoon, lead distance went up a kilometer or two. Does that mean that I have lost? No. The downward movement in lead distance is ongoing, and we will reach our targets. So at the end of the year, we will publish the performance against the target, which I spoke about. I was vocal about each and every number. We will publish our performance at the end of the year. Shravan Shah Director Research, Dolat Capital Market Pvt Ltd Okay. Okay. Thank you, sir, and all the best. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Thank you. Operator Thank you. Next question is from Navin Sahadeo from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead. Navin Sahadeo Institutional Equity Research Analyst, ICICI Securities Yeah. Good evening, sir, and thank you for the opportunity. Two questions. So while we are awaiting the regulatory clearances at both the Kesoram and India Cements deal, is there any initial assessment done as to the CapEx that may be required at both these entities to bring the quality of the plant at par to our operating standards? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited So after CCI approval for Kesoram was received, we have done our deep dive, and we will invest in WHRS for Kesoram. And there will be other, you know, minor CapEx program which will be undertaken. Rupee terms might be INR 400-500 crores over a period of two years to bring it up to the level of performance of UltraTech. As for India Cements, nothing as yet. We will await. We will follow the law. We will await CCI approval before we start engaging with them. Navin Sahadeo Institutional Equity Research Analyst, ICICI Securities Understood, and I'm assuming that the yearly targets that you have given, and thank you so much for giving that, because it gives us more conviction to build in that, those kind of cost savings. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Yeah. Navin Sahadeo Institutional Equity Research Analyst, ICICI Securities So, the yearly targets that you have given for waste heat recovery, I'm assuming they are not- Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Let me preempt you, does not include the acquisitions. Navin Sahadeo Institutional Equity Research Analyst, ICICI Securities Understood. Understood. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Yeah. Navin Sahadeo Institutional Equity Research Analyst, ICICI Securities Sir, second is just a clarification. Did you mention that the current petcoke, at the current low levels of petcoke prices, not much transactions are happening? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Correct. Navin Sahadeo Institutional Equity Research Analyst, ICICI Securities So is it because the seller is not willing to, or they are expecting further decline? How should one look at it? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited If the seller was willing for a decline, waiting for a decline, there's a problem. We want, because we are regular consumers, so we will keep buying. There seems to be a possibility that prices might go up. That is why sellers might be holding onto their you know, inventories and offers. Navin Sahadeo Institutional Equity Research Analyst, ICICI Securities Fair point. But that's very, very, helpful. Thank you so much, sir. Operator Thank you. The next question is from Ritesh Shah from Investec. Please go ahead. Ritesh Shah Co-Head Research and Head of Mid-Market Research Coverage and ESG, Investec India Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Couple of questions. Sir, first, at industry-wide, what is the sort of capacity additions that we are expecting, say, this fiscal and next two fiscals? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited For the year, we would see about 30 million tons of capacity this year, out of which UltraTech would be 50%. Next year, again, there should be 30 million tons, and UltraTech being a main driver for that growth. Ritesh Shah Co-Head Research and Head of Mid-Market Research Coverage and ESG, Investec India Sir, earlier you had given a number of 35-40. So is it, a few companies are scaling back to your knowledge? How should one read into this? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited No, not scaling back. There are delays. Hello? Ritesh Shah Co-Head Research and Head of Mid-Market Research Coverage and ESG, Investec India Okay. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited So it might not get commissioned on time, is what I meant, Ritesh. That's why the numbers get scaled down. Ritesh Shah Co-Head Research and Head of Mid-Market Research Coverage and ESG, Investec India Okay. That's, that's all good. So my second question is, you have indicated on sustainability bond. I think the prior one, the coupon was at around 2.8. Is it possible that you can break up that number of less than 7.25 into hedging costs and the actual coupon? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Sure. Sorry, do you want to give that? Yeah. The cost of the bond is, the hedging cost is about 3%. The total cost of the bond, including the spread, 4%. Ritesh Shah Co-Head Research and Head of Mid-Market Research Coverage and ESG, Investec India Sir, I could not hear. Sorry. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited So the spread, including the software, is around 4%. The hedging cost is around 3%. Ritesh Shah Co-Head Research and Head of Mid-Market Research Coverage and ESG, Investec India That helps, and sir, last question. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Since you touched upon it, you know, I feel so glad or thrilled about it, that the domestic market borrowing cost would be about 7.5%. Ritesh Shah Co-Head Research and Head of Mid-Market Research Coverage and ESG, Investec India Yes. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Yeah. Ritesh Shah Co-Head Research and Head of Mid-Market Research Coverage and ESG, Investec India Yeah, uh- Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Just to know, UltraTech is capable of raising dollar-denominated debt, fully hedged, at very competitive price. Ritesh Shah Co-Head Research and Head of Mid-Market Research Coverage and ESG, Investec India Yes, sir. Yes, sir. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Okay. Ritesh Shah Co-Head Research and Head of Mid-Market Research Coverage and ESG, Investec India Yep. Sir, last question. You emphasized a lot on cost. My basic question was, do you consider discount as a cost, and the reason to ask is, if I look at that number, over a five-year CAGR, the number has increased very, very steeply, at almost 19% CAGR, which probably is a reflection of competitive intensity in the marketplace. So any thoughts on this particular variable, and would you not consider it as a cost as well? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Discounts normally get netted off from selling prices, and there are some promotion expenses which would be in other expenses. So I don't know where you're picking this number up from, but it'll be good if you can catch up with Ankit separately to, you know, elaborate. While you can do that, but I can assure everybody that our sales promotion spends or discounts will not vary, but would not have varied over a longer period of time. Prateek Maheshwari Equity Analyst, HSBC Securities & Capital Markets Sure, sir. I'll connect with you on this separately. Thank you so much for the answers. Thank you. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited All right. Got it. Operator Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sanjay Nandi from VT Capital. Please go ahead. Sanjay Nandi Senior Equity Research Analyst, VT Capital Market Private Limited Hello, hello. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Yes, please. Sanjay Nandi Senior Equity Research Analyst, VT Capital Market Private Limited Yeah, thank you for the opportunity, sir. Sir, can you please share the regional utilization for our company across different regions? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited As I had mentioned earlier, with an average of 68%, almost all locations would either be at 75% or 65%, in that range only. Sanjay Nandi Senior Equity Research Analyst, VT Capital Market Private Limited Okay, got it. And what has been the clinker utilization for the company for this quarter, sir? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Clinker utilization, I think it remains strong. Just one second. Do we have it here? 70% 70%, yeah, 73%. Sanjay Nandi Senior Equity Research Analyst, VT Capital Market Private Limited Okay, sir, that's it from my side. I'm coming back in the queue, sir. Wish you a very happy Diwali in advance. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Thank you. Same to you. Sanjay Nandi Senior Equity Research Analyst, VT Capital Market Private Limited Yeah. Operator Thank you. Next question is from Sukant Garg, from Equirus Research. Please go ahead. Sukant Garg Director, Equible Research Pvt Ltd Hi, so my question is regarding, you know, a guidance on the further acquisitions that the company is planning to do. So after this finishes, what kind of acquisitions the company is looking into as of now? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Acquisitions are always opportunistic, so I really cannot comment on that. Sukant Garg Director, Equible Research Pvt Ltd No, I mean to say, are there any in the pipeline as of now, currently? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited I really can't comment on that. Sukant Garg Director, Equible Research Pvt Ltd Okay, okay. No problems. Thank you. My next set of questions is answered again. Thank you. Operator Thank you. Next question is from Prateek Maheshwari from HSBC. Please go ahead. Prateek Maheshwari Equity Analyst, HSBC Securities & Capital Markets Thank you for the opportunity, sir. Sir, just wanted to ask you if there is anything to call out in your cash conversion. So, just saw that, your year versus last year, your cash conversion has dropped to some 65%. And, I think the main reason has been the decrease in your trade payables and other liabilities. So, is there... Is it a seasonal thing, or is there any change in terms? I just wanted to understand that. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Cash conversion means operating cash flow. EBITDA, yeah, operating cash flow. Yeah, operating cash flow was low, lower because of July, September. We have built our inventory, slightly receivables go up. It's typical of July, September quarter, and you will start seeing positive OCF going forward. Prateek Maheshwari Equity Analyst, HSBC Securities & Capital Markets And so, anything on your trade payables decline and the liability? We saw similar things, similar trend with the other peer as well. Is it related to your fuel at all? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited One second, I'm just checking, Prateek Maheshwari Equity Analyst, HSBC Securities & Capital Markets Yeah. It's normal. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited It's normal. I think there's no abnormal trend. My DSO, I think this question was asked earlier also by somebody. Have my credit terms changed? No. We are having our credit days, credit terms are standard. There might be some payments for CapEx creditors, which might have increased, but I don't see any adverse situation in our OCF. Prateek Maheshwari Equity Analyst, HSBC Securities & Capital Markets Okay. And so I just wanted to understand the second half demand drivers. So would you see that, the infra increasing, and so the non-trade share increasing? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited You see H2, you will see infra, you will see rural growing, infra growing, urban urban markets continue to grow. Prateek Maheshwari Equity Analyst, HSBC Securities & Capital Markets Very similar to your unhedged drivers in terms of trade, non-trade. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Yes, yes. Prateek Maheshwari Equity Analyst, HSBC Securities & Capital Markets Okay. Got it, sir. Thank you so much for the opportunity. Operator Thank you. Next question is from Amit Murarka, from Axis Capital. Please go ahead. Amit Murarka Equity Research Analyst, Axis Capital Hi. Thanks for the opportunity again. So given that we are very close to now Kesoram integration, could you provide a brief overview of ongoing financials, Kesoram? 1H Financials . I think they declared their results. Yeah, but they didn't have the cement in that. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited No, no, I’ll share with you. They delivered volumes of about 1.7 million tons. EBITDA per ton on cement was 264 per ton. On a capacity utilization of 74, 70? 74 74% Amit Murarka Equity Research Analyst, Axis Capital EBITDA per ton was only 264, you said? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited 264 Amit Murarka Equity Research Analyst, Axis Capital Okay, okay, and also, what is the rebranding strategy there now? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited I think once we step into that asset, then only we will want to move forward on the branding, if at all. We will, you know, tell you about it as and when we step into it. Amit Murarka Equity Research Analyst, Axis Capital Sure. So I believe by Q3, I think we should be able to kind of include that in our numbers also. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Yeah. So, NCLT hearings, I told you about the dates, so it all depends upon NCLT hearings taking place. Once the hearing is done, order is passed, might take 15-20 days to get the printed order, which has to be filed with the Registrar of Companies to conclude, and then we step in, you know, big bang. It could happen in October, December quarter, failing which, January, March seems to be definitely happening. Amit Murarka Equity Research Analyst, Axis Capital Got it. Got it. Yeah, that's all I was asking for. Thank you. Operator Thank you. The next question is from Rajesh Ravi from HDFC Securities. Please go ahead. Rajesh Ravi SVP and Institutional Equities Analyst, HDFC Securities Ltd Hi, sir. Good evening. My question pertains to the cement margin. If I look at the blended reported number, INR 725 is already multiyear low performance. If I exclude the contribution from RMC, white cement, and the other operating income, this number would be closer to INR 600. So, you know, as an industry leader, if that is operating at, say, close to INR 600, you know, where do we see, you know, a bottom in terms of the pricing? Because why I'm talking about this, everyone, including you and other major players, we are all talking about INR 200-INR 400 cost reduction happening over the next two years. In that context, you know, what is the certainty of these prices recovering to a, you know, respectable level of, say, where margins on the cement business turns up north of INR 400 ? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited First and foremost, INR 600 is a wrong analysis. Rajesh Ravi SVP and Institutional Equities Analyst, HDFC Securities Ltd Of anything between INR 600 to INR 650. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited No, no. So from a INR 732, it might come down to somewhere around INR 700, if you are to or INR 710, INR 720, not more than that. Because the... If you look at the percentages, the overall percentage of RMC or anything else is very small. And as far as other incomes is concerned, that's part and parcel of the business. Rajesh Ravi SVP and Institutional Equities Analyst, HDFC Securities Ltd Correct. Correct. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited It is, you know, for example, fiscal incentive. It's a regular phenomenon for cement industry. It will be there. Rajesh Ravi SVP and Institutional Equities Analyst, HDFC Securities Ltd Mm-hmm. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited So it's regular. I wouldn't want to say it's to call it out as one-off. Rajesh Ravi SVP and Institutional Equities Analyst, HDFC Securities Ltd Agree. No, my point is, you know, for you, we are one of the most significant players with better brand positioning. If you have to operate at, such low levels, you know, why should the prices not go up? You know, and obviously, when you are giving those numbers, others will also be reporting similar numbers. So, you know, where we were looking at 1300 , 1400 margins for the industry, you know, how should that shape up? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Rajesh, we will talk about the same thing. I'm noting down your question, and we'll talk about it at the end of next quarter results. Then your question will change totally. So the point is, cement industry, you cannot measure on a quarter-to-quarter basis. It's a long-term play. Rajesh Ravi SVP and Institutional Equities Analyst, HDFC Securities Ltd Mm-hmm. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited When an asset is being built, it does not get built in one quarter. This quarter, and I've been telling all investors not to panic well in advance before this quarter started also, that this quarter is going to be depressing. Rajesh Ravi SVP and Institutional Equities Analyst, HDFC Securities Ltd Got it. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited How depressing or how low that I would not be able to gauge while beginning of the quarter. But yes, it was. Everybody knows the way the monsoon has been this quarter. It impacts dispatches. The intensity of monsoon has been highest this year as compared to several years, which for us, it was impacting dispatches. It was increasing our costs, which will not be there in Q3, Q4, and Q1 next fiscal. Rajesh Ravi SVP and Institutional Equities Analyst, HDFC Securities Ltd Mm-hmm. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Good part is, we are already seeing positive traction from rural markets, which should be very positive in the coming months. My guess is, whilst we have looked at INR 732 as a bottom this quarter, we'll bounce back. Very confident. Rajesh Ravi SVP and Institutional Equities Analyst, HDFC Securities Ltd Okay. Great, sir. That's all from my end. All the best. Thank you. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Thank you. Operator Next question is from Ashish Jain, from Macquarie. Please go ahead. Ashish Jain Analyst, Macquarie Hi, sir. Good evening. My first question is on your capacity addition. You know, while if I look at the regional breakup of the capacity addition, it's heavily skewed in favor of south and eastern India, and some of the acquisitions which you will do, which are not factored there, are also, you know, southwest centric. How do you plan to grow market share or volumes in north and central, where I guess you're operating at very high utilization and not much capacity is there in terms of the current pipeline, I think? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited For north, you will see organic capacity addition as part of our phase four in future years. Central being Central by itself, and I'm seeing a chart which you've already seen. We have got about 5.7 million tons getting added in the next couple of years in northern market. Ashish Jain Analyst, Macquarie Right. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited This is what I, in fact, in one question I clarified, Ashish. Our diversity is our strongest strength, our biggest strength. You know, if you look at it, 30-35 million tons average we will have in all the regions. South was having a full weightage in terms of our overall capacity balancing, roughly 20 million tons. If I go back in history, we were at 20 million tons of capacity for a very long time. Yes, the two acquisitions, India Cements, as and when it gets completed, is South dominant. It has a small capacity which will get added in the North. Kesoram is South, you rightly said, South and West, so we are balanced. Ashish Jain Analyst, Macquarie Right. No, sir, I completely get that. You know, my only point was that, while we are getting balanced, the mix from capacity point of view is, in my view, worsening. Because the share of weaker profit markets are, is actually going up, based upon this number at least. I was coming- Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited No, but, Ashish, if you look at the announcement by the CM of Andhra Pradesh, within three years, he wants to complete Amaravati City. The kind of development which is taking place, I heard from my marketing colleagues, the kind of development of new townships and cities that is taking place, you'll have huge amount of demand growth in South market also. Ashish Jain Analyst, Macquarie Got it. Got it. So secondly, you know, some of the optimism, you know, you shared for, let's say, second half profitability, is it fair to assume that a large part of it, if it comes through, will be price-led and normalization of seasonal cost? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Yes. Ashish Jain Analyst, Macquarie Because normalization of seasonal cost is well understood. Coal and all is not a major tailwind, I guess, from, you know. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Ashish, pricing is. If I look at, as I mentioned, August to September, September to October, I already see a delta of 200%, minimum. Ashish Jain Analyst, Macquarie Right. Right. Yeah, yeah, so basically it's price-led, right? Because on cost side, Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Yes. Yes. Ashish Jain Analyst, Macquarie Okay. Got it. Got it. Thank you, sir. Thanks so much, and best of luck. Operator Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sanyam Chhangani Sanyam Chhangani Analyst, J.P. Morgan Hi. Am I audible? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Yes, please. Sanyam Chhangani Analyst, J.P. Morgan Yeah. I just wanted to ask whether what is the current limestone capacity for UltraTech? And, like, do we what is the expiry schedule, like, in the next two to five years, how many limestone reserves do we expect? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Yes, no expiry. FY 2030, there will be a couple of mines which will expire. Our limestone reserves are long-dated. We have more than around 10 billion tons of reserves all India put together, so we're not really worried about it. Sanyam Chhangani Analyst, J.P. Morgan Okay. So, and what kind of bids do we expect to place in the coming two years to three years, let's say, for further additions in limestone reserves? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited It all depends on where the limestone mine auction is taking place, what is the reserve, what is the market potential, what is our intention of growth in that marketplace. Accordingly, we'll make our bidding strategy. Cannot be done at this time, because the government has also not announced long-term or, let's say, three-year, four-year plans of auction mine auctions. They happen on a day-to-day basis. Sanyam Chhangani Analyst, J.P. Morgan Okay. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Thank you. Operator Thank you. The next question is from Rahul Gupta, from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Rahul Gupta Analyst, Morgan Stanley Hi. Thank you. Hello? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Can't hear you. Operator Rahul, we can't hear you. If you're in a headset, we request you to use the handset. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Can't hear you at all. Rahul Gupta Analyst, Morgan Stanley Hello, can you hear me? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Yeah, that's better. Rahul Gupta Analyst, Morgan Stanley Sorry about it. Thank you for giving me a chance again. You mentioned that 30 million ton capacity would get added each in this year and next year. And you also mentioned that there are, there have been some delays. Just want to understand, are there structural issues? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Delays are not on our side. Rahul Gupta Analyst, Morgan Stanley No, no, yeah, I understand that. I am asking more from the industry perspective, and the reason I ask this question is because if I look at industry outside large players, even normalized profitability levels would make almost impractical to add capacity, so does this mean that you will see accelerated market share gains, even on organic capacity addition basis, or how should we look at the industry dynamics from the next two, three years perspective, given how profitability levels are? Thank you. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited You asked the question and answered it yourself. What can I say? Rahul Gupta Analyst, Morgan Stanley So let me ask this question differently, sir. Is there a risk that capacity expansion delays may happen structurally for the industry over the next two years? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Really cannot comment about the capability and ability of competition to execute their expansion. But whatever I knew from ground realities, I told the forum. Rahul Gupta Analyst, Morgan Stanley Okay, great. Thank you so much. Operator Thank you. The next question is from Pulkit Patni from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Pulkit Patni Analyst, Goldman Sachs Hello, sir. Most of my questions are answered. If you could just give a sense for the first twenty days of October, what has been the kind of demand pick up? That would be helpful for us to get confidence in third quarter demand number, please. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited But Pulkit, you know, like several other industries, cement also plays up big time in the third quartile of the month. Third, the last ten days is bigger. And as of now, it's not a decline or a dramatic improvement. It is steady build up. Pulkit Patni Analyst, Goldman Sachs Sure, sir. But the last couple of weeks will be impacted by Diwali, so looks like it will be only post Diwali. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited October, October month. Oh, sorry, I should have mentioned that. Laju did that. October month will be a slow month because Diwali is also happening here. Diwali, Dussehra, Durga Puja, [Foreign] . This month will be slow. But, you know, the under- which creates a pent-up demand, which creates a backlog next, next month. Pulkit Patni Analyst, Goldman Sachs Sure, sir. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited November, December onwards, it should be very buoyant. Pulkit Patni Analyst, Goldman Sachs Got it. Thank you, sir. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Thanks. Operator Thank you. The next question is from Jashandeep Singh Chadha from Nomura. Please go ahead. Jashandeep Chadha Equity Research Analyst, Nomura Hello. Hi, sir. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Hi. Jashandeep Chadha Equity Research Analyst, Nomura Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, most of my questions are answered. Just, you know, one question, and before that, a clarification. You said that in this quarter, you, UltraTech also paid a one-time bonuses over and above the usual bonus that you pay in second quarter. And excluding that, the employee cost would have increased 10% quarter on quarter. Is that understanding right, sir? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Yes. Jashandeep Chadha Equity Research Analyst, Nomura Thank you. And sir, my question is, largely on the Tamil Nadu, you know, limestone auction. Has there been any update in from last two to three years? Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Nothing. No update. Jashandeep Chadha Equity Research Analyst, Nomura Okay. Okay, thank you, sir. Most of my questions are answered. Thank you very much. Atul Daga CFO, UltraTech Cement Limited Thank you. Operator Thank you very much. We'll take that as the last question. On behalf of UltraTech Cement, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect your lines. Powered by