Senco Gold vs Schaeffler India Q3 FY26

Senco Gold delivered a historic Q3 FY26 with revenue of ₹3,000 Cr (+50% YoY), EBITDA of ₹400 Cr (13.2% margin, +210bps YoY), and PAT of ₹264 Cr (+689% YoY). The stellar performance was driven by strong festive and wedding demand, a shift to lightweight and diamond studded jewelry (studded value +38% YoY), and operating leverage from higher own-store sales (65% of revenue). Management guided for Q4 revenue growth of 25-30% YoY and a sustainable EBITDA margin of 7.5-7.8% for FY27, with near-term margins benefiting from elevated gold prices. Key risks include gold price volatility impacting volume growth (gold volume -10% in 9M) and working capital strain from high inventory levels (₹4,602 Cr).

Guidance read

Q4 FY26 revenue growth of 25-30% YoY: Management guided for 25-30% revenue growth in Q4, conservatively, despite gold price volatility and seasonal factors like Holi. FY27 sustainable EBITDA margin of 7.5-7.8%: For FY27, management expects EBITDA margin of 7.5-7.8% at current gold prices, with 7.3-7.5% if prices moderate. FY27 store addition of 18-20 stores: Plans to open 18-20 stores in FY27, with a mix of 8-10 own stores and 8-10 franchise stores, focusing on franchise expansion. Hedging ratio to remain 55-60% near-term: Hedging ratio will stay at 55-60% due to gold price volatility and working capital constraints; may increase to 80-90% if stability returns.

Risk read

Key risks include Gold price volatility impacting volume — Gold volume declined 10% in 9M FY26; further price spikes could compress consumer budgets and reduce footfalls, pressuring revenue growth.; Working capital strain from high inventory — Inventory value rose to ₹4,602 Cr (from ₹2,963 Cr), funded by borrowings; elevated gold prices increase working capital needs and interest costs.; Hedging policy opacity and margin call risk — Management declined to disclose detailed hedging strategies; recent gold price swings caused margin calls, and low hedging (55-60%) exposes balance sheet to price drops.; Realization gain dependency on gold price rise — 2-2.5% of EBITDA margin in 9M came from realization gains; if gold prices stabilize or fall, margins could revert to 7.5-7.8% guidance..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

Schaeffler India delivered a stellar Q4 CY25 with revenue of ₹2,643 crore (+26.9% YoY) and EBITDA of ₹505.6 crore (+19.1% YoY), driven by strong volume growth across automotive (42% YoY in AT), industrial, and aftermarket segments. The company benefited from robust end-market demand, GST 2.0 reforms, and new business wins in hybrid and e-mobility. PAT came in at ₹328 crore with EBITDA margin of 19.1%. Management guided for sustained double-digit growth in CY26, with capex stepping up to over ₹500 crore to support capacity expansion (current utilization >85%). Key risk: export growth may moderate to 5-10% in CY26 due to slower European demand.

Guidance read

Capex to exceed ₹500 crore in CY26: Management plans to step up capex to over ₹500 crore in 2026, returning to average levels of 2022-2024, to support capacity expansion and new technologies. Export growth to moderate to 5-10% in CY26: Export order book for 2026 is in line with 2025, but growth is expected to moderate to 5-10% due to economic conditions in Europe and Asia Pacific. Sustained double-digit revenue growth in CY26: Management reiterated commitment to double-digit growth in the medium term, supported by strong pipeline and market demand.

Risk read

Key risks include Export growth moderation — Management guided export growth to slow to 5-10% in CY26 from 30-35% in CY25, due to weaker European and Asia Pacific demand.; Competitive intensity in industrial bearings — Analyst raised concern about a competitor's new SRB plant; management acknowledged competition but emphasized localization strategy.; KRSV subsidiary losses — KRSV's losses widened to 18.3% margin in Q4; management expects improvement in CY26 through channel and product mix optimization..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.