Sbin Management Guidance Tracker

40 forward-looking guidance items tracked across 10 quarters.

Growth

Q1 FY24Credit growth of 14-15% in FY24Active

Management expects domestic advances to grow 14-15% in FY24, supported by robust pipeline and broad-based demand.

Q2 FY24Loan growth guidance of 12-14% for FY24Tracked

Management expects overall loan growth in the range of 12-14%, with potential to surprise on the higher side.

Q2 FY24SME book target of INR 4 trillion by FY24Tracked

SME advances are expected to reach INR 4 trillion by FY24, driven by analytics-led products and improved infrastructure.

Q3 FY24Loan growth of 14-15% for FY24Active

Management expects credit growth to be in line with nominal GDP plus 3-4%, targeting 14-15% for FY24.

Q3 FY24ROE to exceed 20% going forwardTracked

Management expects ROE to sustainably exceed 20% as one-time provisions normalize and productivity improves.

Q1 FY25CD ratio target of 70-72%Active

Credit-deposit ratio expected to be around 70%, potentially rising to 72%.

Q2 FY25Credit growth guidance of 14-16% for FY25Active

Management expects domestic credit growth to remain in the 14-16% range, supported by strong corporate pipeline and retail segments.

Q2 FY25Deposit growth target of 10-10.5%Active

Efforts to mobilize deposits through data analytics and branch-level focus aim to push deposit growth above 10%.

Q3 FY25Credit growth of 14-16% for FY25Active

Management reiterated guidance of 14-16% credit growth for FY25, supported by strong corporate pipeline and retail momentum.

Q3 FY25Deposit growth of ~10% for FY25Active

Deposit growth guidance revised to ~10% for FY25, with focus on improving CASA mix.

Q4 FY25Credit growth target of 12-13% for FY26Tracked

Management expects domestic credit growth of 12-13% in FY26, driven by corporate pipeline and SME/agriculture segments.

Q1 FY26Credit growth guidance of 12-13% for FY26Tracked

The bank expects overall credit growth of around 12%, with potential upside to 13% as uncertainties clear.

Q3 FY26Credit growth guidance revised to 13-15% for Q4 FY26Active

Management raised the earlier 12-14% guidance to 13-15% for the current quarter, driven by strong momentum across all segments.

Q4 FY26Credit growth of 13%-15% for FY27Tracked

Management expects credit growth in the range of 13%-15% for FY27, driven primarily by RAM (retail, agriculture, MSME) segments.

Margins

Q1 FY24NIM to sustain around 3.47%Active

Chairman stated effort to retain domestic NIM at 3.47% for the full year, despite sequential volatility.

Q1 FY24Cost-to-income ratio improvement via digital and productivityTracked

Management aims to reduce cost-to-income ratio by shoring up income and improving staff productivity through digital sourcing and SBOSS.

Q2 FY24Domestic NIM to compress 3-5bps more then stabilizeActive

Management expects domestic NIM to decline by another 3-5 basis points from current 3.43% and then stabilize around that level by year-end.

Q3 FY24NIM to remain stable with 2-3 bps dipActive

Margins expected to be maintained around current levels, with a maximum dip of 2-3 bps.

Q1 FY25NIM to remain stable within ±10 bpsActive

Management expects net interest margin to stay near current levels, with variation not exceeding 10 bps.

Q1 FY25Credit cost guidance of ~0.50%Active

Sustainable credit cost expected to be around 0.50% going forward.

Q2 FY25ROA to remain above 1%Active

Management guides for ROA of at least 1%, with potential upside from non-interest income and cost control.

Q2 FY25Credit cost to be around 50 bpsActive

Slippage ratio expected below 60 bps and credit cost below 40 bps, with PCR at 75.66% providing buffer.

Q3 FY25NIM above 3%Active

Management guided NIM to remain above 3% going forward, despite rate cut expectations.

Q3 FY25Credit cost of ~50bps through cyclesTracked

Credit cost guidance of around 50 basis points through business cycles, reflecting confidence in asset quality.

Q4 FY25NIM protection around 3%Active

Despite repo rate cuts, management aims to protect domestic NIM at around 3% through deposit rate adjustments.

Q4 FY25Cost-to-income ratio below 50-51%Active

Management guided to keep cost-to-income ratio below 50-51% by focusing on income growth and digital efficiencies.

Q1 FY26NIM guidance of 3% for FY26Tracked

Management expects domestic NIM to be around 3% for the full year, with a U-shaped trajectory—declining in Q2 and improving from Q3 onwards.

Q1 FY26Cost-to-income ratio below 50%Tracked

Management aims to keep the cost-to-income ratio below 50% through the cycle, supported by productivity initiatives like Project SARAL.

Q3 FY26Exit NIM of 3% for FY26 and 3% through cyclesActive

Management reiterated NIM guidance of 3% for Q4 exit and long-term, with no significant upside expected.

Q3 FY26ROA guidance of 1% through cyclesActive

Management maintained 1% ROA guidance, emphasizing consistency over cycles despite current outperformance.

Q3 FY26Cost-to-income ratio below 50%Active

Management reiterated target to keep cost-to-income below 50%, supported by operating leverage and digital initiatives.

Q4 FY26Domestic NIM above 3% for FY27Tracked

Management guided for domestic net interest margin to remain above 3% for the full year FY27, supported by stable repo rates and asset mix improvement.

Q4 FY26Credit cost guidance of 50bps for FY27Tracked

Management reiterated credit cost guidance of 50 basis points for FY27, confident in asset quality despite potential West Asia conflict impact.

Q4 FY26Cost-to-income ratio below 50%Tracked

Management aims to keep cost-to-income ratio below 50% for FY27, with efforts to contain overheads and improve operational efficiency.

Expansion

Q1 FY24Add ~300 branches in current yearTracked

Bank plans to add about 300 branches in FY24, focusing on potential areas, alongside digital expansion.

Other

Q2 FY24CET1 ratio expected above 11% by year-endTracked

With profit plough-back, CET1 ratio is expected to improve to over 11% by March 2024, from current 9.94%.

Q3 FY24CET1 to get 50 bps boost from investment valuation normsTracked

Revised valuation norms from April 2024 are expected to add ~50 bps to CET1 ratio.

Q1 FY26ROA above 1% and ROE above 15%Tracked

Structural targets of return on assets above 1% and return on equity above 15% through the cycle are reaffirmed.

Capex

Q1 FY25Capital raise of INR 25,000 crore approvedTracked

Board approved raising INR 10,000 crore Tier 1 and INR 15,000 crore Tier 2 capital.

Q4 FY25Equity capital raise up to INR 25,000 crore (enabling resolution)Tracked

Board approved raising equity capital up to INR 25,000 crore, contingent on business needs and market conditions.