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Mahindra & Mahindra Limited — Q4 FY24
M&M delivered a strong FY24 with standalone PAT up 48% YoY (64% excluding one-offs) and consolidated PAT up 25%, driven by auto (PAT up 2.5x to INR 4,700 crore) and resilient farm margins (core tractor margin 17.7%).
bullish
high
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M&M delivered a strong FY24 with standalone PAT up 48% YoY (64% excluding one-offs) and consolidated PAT up 25%, driven by auto (PAT up 2.5x to INR 4,700 crore) and resilient farm margins (core tractor margin 17.7%). Auto revenue grew 36% with SUV market leadership and LCV market share at 49%+. The XUV 3XO launch saw 50,000 bookings in 60 minutes, and management guided for mid-to-high teen volume growth in FY25. Farm sector is expected to grow ~5% in FY25 with favorable monsoons. Key risks include potential EV adoption slowdown and competitive pressure in last-mile mobility. Management reiterated 15-20% EPS growth and 18% ROE targets, with a INR 27,000 crore auto capex plan (including INR 12,000 crore for EVs) and INR 5,000 crore for farm over three years.
M&M का FY24 का प्रदर्शन शानदार रहा। कंपनी का मुनाफा (PAT) पिछले साल की तुलना में 48% बढ़ा। ऑटो सेक्टर में मुनाफा 2.5 गुना बढ़कर ₹4,700 करोड़ हो गया। ट्रैक्टर सेक्टर का मार्जिन 17.7% रहा। XUV 3XO लॉन्च के 60 मिनट में 50,000 बुकिंग हुई। कंपनी को FY25 में ऑटो सेल्स में 15-20% और फार्म सेक्टर में 5% ग्रोथ की उम्मीद है। EV अपनाने की रफ्तार धीमी होने और लास्ट-माइल मोबिलिटी में प्रतिस्पर्धा जोखिम हैं। कंपनी ने 15-20% EPS ग्रोथ और 18% ROE का लक्ष्य रखा है। ऑटो में ₹27,000 करोड़ (EV के लिए ₹12,000 करोड़) और फार्म में ₹5,000 करोड़ का निवेश तीन साल में होगा।
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EV adoption slower than expected
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XUV 3XO bookings (first 60 minutes)
50,000
N/A
Record initial bookings for the new SUV launch, indicating strong demand.
Auto SUV order book
220,000
N/A
Order book cleaned up; management prefers lower number for faster delivery.
Auto capacity (exit FY24 → FY26)
49,000/month → 72,000/month
+47%
Capacity expansion to support growth, including 18,000 for EVs by FY26.
Tractor market share (April 2024)
46%
+12.8pp in 20-30HP segment Sep-Mar
Market share recovered after inventory correction; Oja launch drove gains.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Farm sector growth of ~5% in FY25
Farm sector expected to grow around 5% in FY25, with potential upside from favorable monsoons and farmer terms of trade.
NEW
Auto capex of INR 27,000 crore over three years
Includes INR 12,000 crore for EVs, INR 8,500 crore for SUV ICE, INR 4,000 crore for CVs, and INR 1,500 crore for Susten.
NEW
Farm capex of INR 5,000 crore over three years
Includes INR 2,800 crore for product development, INR 700 crore for capacity, and INR 600 crore for TREM V readiness.
UPDATED
Auto volume growth mid-to-high teens in FY25
Management expects auto volume growth in the mid-to-high teens for FY25, driven by new launches like XUV 3XO and Thar 5-door.
DROPPED
Auto capacity to reach 49,000/month by Q4 FY24
Capacity expansion on track to 49,000 units per month by end of current quarter, though near-term volumes may be impacted by XUV300 ramp-down.
DROPPED
Tractor industry Q4 FY24 decline of 10%
Management guided for tractor industry to decline 10% in Q4 FY24, with full-year decline around 5%.
DROPPED
Farm machinery breakeven in 1.5-2 years
Farm machinery business expected to break even in about 1.5 to 2 years with current growth plans.
NEW RISK
EV adoption slower than expected
Global EV slowdown and low penetration in India may impact BEV launch success; management relies on 'wow' products to drive demand.
NEW RISK
Competition in last-mile mobility
New entrants in electric three-wheelers may reduce market share, though management expects category growth to offset.
NEW RISK
Mahindra Finance fraud recurrence
A INR 136 crore fraud in Aizawl branch raised concerns about internal controls; management claims strengthened processes.
NEW RISK
Tractor industry recovery uncertainty
Farm sector growth of 5% is tentative; weak monsoon or unfavorable terms of trade could delay recovery.
RISK GONE
Rural demand weakness
Tractor industry down ~5% due to weak rural sentiment; recovery depends on monsoon and government spending.
RISK GONE
Red Sea supply chain disruption
Analyst raised concern about 55-60 day delays; management downplayed impact but acknowledged potential cost and export delays.
RISK GONE
Tech Mahindra turnaround risk
TechM profit down 61%; management acknowledged it as a sore spot and expects recovery but with uncertainty.
RISK GONE
XUV700 order book decline
Bookings fell as deliveries improved; management sees this as positive but risk of demand softening if perception of long wait persists.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24, Q3 FY24
Capacity expansion on track to 49,000 units per month by end of current quarter, though near-term volumes may be impacted by XUV300 ramp-down.
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24, Q3 FY24
TechM profit down 61%; management acknowledged it as a sore spot and expects recovery but with uncertainty.
Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24
Management expects farm machinery revenue to grow about 40% for the full year, up from 35% in H1.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Management expects auto volume growth in the mid-to-high teens for FY25, driven by new launches like XUV 3XO and Thar 5-door.
Global EV slowdown and low penetration in India may impact BEV launch success; management relies on 'wow' products to drive demand.
View Risks →