Maruti vs Grasim Q2 FY25

Maruti Suzuki reported Q2 FY25 net sales of INR 35,589 crore, nearly flat YoY, while PAT fell 17.4% to INR 3,069 crore due to a one-time tax provision. Domestic wholesale volumes declined 3.9% YoY, but exports grew 12.1%. Festive retail sales surged 14% YoY, driven by rural demand and higher discounts averaging INR 29,300 per car. CNG mix reached 33% of sales. Management expects full-year retail growth of 3-4% and stable discounts. The upcoming EV launch in January 2025 and Kharkhoda plant commissioning by Q4 are key catalysts. Risk: small car segment remains weak due to affordability challenges, with no clear recovery timeline.

Guidance read

Full-year retail sales growth of 3-4%: Management expects retail sales to grow 3-4% for FY25, with April-October already at 3.9%. Kharkhoda plant commissioning by Q4 FY25: The new 300,000-unit capacity plant in Kharkhoda is on track to be commissioned by end of this financial year. EV launch in January 2025 with high range: The first EV (e-SUV) will be launched at Bharat Mobility Global Expo, featuring a ~60 kWh battery and high range. One EV launch per year on average till end of decade: Management plans to launch 5-6 EVs by the end of the decade, averaging one per year.

Risk read

Key risks include Small car segment weakness — Affordability challenges persist in the small car segment, with no clear recovery timeline despite limited edition launches.; Discount pressure on margins — Higher discounts (INR 29,300/car) are compressing margins; sustainability depends on demand recovery.; Yen volatility and hedging effectiveness — CFO noted yen uncertainty due to macro factors (US elections), though hedging is being stepped up to reduce volatility.; Model portfolio complexity — Expanding to 28 models from 18 raises complexity in dealership footprint and operations, acknowledged by management as a key challenge..

Promise ledger

Of 2 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 2 missed.

Grasim's Q2 FY25 consolidated revenue grew 11% YoY to ₹33,563 crore, marking the 16th consecutive quarter of growth. However, consolidated EBITDA fell 10% YoY to ₹4,042 crore, dragged by lower profitability in cement and initial investments in the paints business (Birla Opus). The VSF division achieved its highest-ever quarterly sales volume of 219,000 tons, while chemicals EBITDA rose 16% YoY. Paints business is on track to exit FY25 with high single-digit market share, with three plants commissioned and two more starting trial runs. Management maintained guidance for Birla Opus and Birla Pivot (targeting $1B revenue in three years). Key risk: sustained competitive intensity in paints could pressure margins and delay profitability.

Guidance read

Paints: exit FY25 with high single-digit market share: Birla Opus is on track to achieve high single-digit market share in decorative paints by end of FY25, with three plants commissioned and two more starting trial runs. Birla Pivot: $1 billion revenue in three years: B2B e-commerce platform targeting $1 billion revenue within three years from FY24, with current ramp-up ahead of expectations. UltraTech: 200 MTPA cement capacity by FY27: UltraTech on track to achieve gray cement capacity of over 200 million tons per annum by FY27, including acquisitions. Net debt to EBITDA at 3.5x: Management guided net debt to EBITDA of about 3.5x, with balance rights issue of ₹2,000 crore expected in Q4.

Risk read

Key risks include Paints competitive intensity and margin pressure — Increased trade discounts and promotional spending by incumbents could pressure Birla Opus's margins and delay profitability.; Cement demand slowdown and realization decline — Cement business faced demand slowdown due to elections, heat, and extended monsoons, leading to lower realizations and impacting consolidated EBITDA.; Chlorine oversupply depressing ECU — Oversupply of chlorine led to higher negative realization, impacting chemicals ECU despite improvement in caustic prices.; Paints revenue and profitability disclosure opacity — Management declined to share specific revenue or EBITDA numbers for the paints business, citing competitive sensitivity, which limits visibility for investors..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.