Lupin vs Swiggy Q4 FY26

LU

Lupin

Q4 FY26 · Other

Lupin delivered a stellar Q4 FY26 with revenue of ₹7,475 crore (+32% YoY) and EBITDA of ₹2,171 crore (+68% YoY), marking the 15th consecutive quarter of growth. The US business was a standout, reaching $1.31 billion for the full year (+40% YoY), driven by complex generics like Tolvaptan and Mirabegron. India prescription business grew 14.5% YoY, outperforming IPM. Management guided for high single-digit revenue growth and ~25% EBITDA margin in FY27, factoring in competition on key products and higher R&D spend. Key risks include potential generic competition for Mirabegron and Tolvaptan, and inflationary pressures from global trade disruptions.

Guidance read

FY27 Revenue Growth: High Single Digit: Management expects high single-digit revenue growth in rupee terms for FY27. FY27 EBITDA Margin: ~25%: EBITDA margin guided to around 25% for FY27, down from 29.7% in FY26, factoring in competition and higher R&D. R&D Spend: ~8% of Sales in FY27: R&D expenditure expected to be around 8% of sales for the next fiscal year. US Business: Sustain >$1B in FY27: US revenue expected to remain above $1 billion in FY27 despite competition, supported by new launches.

Risk read

Key risks include Mirabegron Competition — A third player has settled and may enter the market, potentially pressuring Lupin's market share and margins.; Tolvaptan Patent Expiry — Patent expiry in September 2026 could bring generic competition, impacting US revenue.; Inflationary Pressures — Rising freight and raw material costs due to geopolitical tensions could impact margins, though management has factored this into guidance.; Dapagliflozin 505(b)(2) Launch Delay — Challenges in achieving product PK for the Dapagliflozin 505(b)(2) could delay launch beyond FY27..

Promise ledger

Of 2 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 2 missed.

Swiggy reported Q4 FY26 results with a focus on quick commerce (QC) achieving contribution margin break-even in March, exiting at +110 bps CM. Food delivery grew 18-20% YoY, with steady-state margins of 5%. QC GOV reached ₹1 lakh crore medium-term ambition, driven by differentiation via private labels (e.g., 'Noise') and improved take rates. Management emphasized balancing growth and profitability, deliberately churning low-AOV users to improve unit economics. MTU additions slowed to 0.5M net, but high-value cohorts retained well. Risks include sustained competitive intensity from multiple players, which could pressure marketing spend and delay EBITDA profitability. Capex is moderating after warehousing investments.

Guidance read

Quick Commerce Contribution Margin Break-Even in Q1 FY27: Management confirmed achieving contribution margin break-even for the full quarter in Q1 FY27, with March exit at +110 bps. Quick Commerce Medium-Term GOV Target of ₹1 Lakh Crore: Target to reach ₹1 lakh crore GOV in 3.5-5 years, implying 35-50% CAGR, driven by store densification and geographic expansion. Food Delivery Steady-State Margin of 5%: Food delivery business expected to maintain steady-state EBITDA margin of 5% with medium-term growth of 18-20%. Capex to Moderate Significantly: Capex expected to decline as warehousing investments are largely complete; Q4 capex was ~₹195 Cr.

Risk read

Key risks include Sustained Competitive Intensity in Quick Commerce — Multiple players (6-7) remain aggressive, potentially pressuring marketing spend and delaying EBITDA profitability.; MTU Growth Headwind from Low-AOV Churn — Deliberate churn of low-AOV users may suppress MTU growth for another two quarters, impacting top-line momentum.; LPG Crisis Impact on Food Delivery Volumes — March LPG shortage caused <0.5% price increase; situation easing but could recur.; Uncertainty in Toy Business Model — Toy (low-price food app) is early-stage; cannibalization risk and unclear path to profitability..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.