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Lupin Ltd — Q4 FY26
Lupin delivered a stellar Q4 FY26 with revenue of ₹7,475 crore (+32% YoY) and EBITDA of ₹2,171 crore (+68% YoY), marking the 15th consecutive quarter of growth.
bullish
high
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Lupin delivered a stellar Q4 FY26 with revenue of ₹7,475 crore (+32% YoY) and EBITDA of ₹2,171 crore (+68% YoY), marking the 15th consecutive quarter of growth. The US business was a standout, reaching $1.31 billion for the full year (+40% YoY), driven by complex generics like Tolvaptan and Mirabegron. India prescription business grew 14.5% YoY, outperforming IPM. Management guided for high single-digit revenue growth and ~25% EBITDA margin in FY27, factoring in competition on key products and higher R&D spend. Key risks include potential generic competition for Mirabegron and Tolvaptan, and inflationary pressures from global trade disruptions.
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US Sales (FY26)
$1.31B
+40% YoY
Full year US revenue driven by new product launches and volume growth.
India Prescription Growth (Q4)
14.5%
+2.9pp vs IPM
Core prescription business grew 14.5% YoY, outperforming IPM growth of 11.6%.
Chronic Share in India
66%
+2pp YoY
Chronic segment now 66% of India portfolio, up from 64% in FY25.
Gross Margin (Q4)
75%
+1330bps YoY
Gross margin improved to 75% from 61.7% in Q4 FY25, driven by product mix and efficiencies.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
FY27 Revenue Growth: High Single Digit
Management expects high single-digit revenue growth in rupee terms for FY27.
NEW
US Business: Sustain >$1B in FY27
US revenue expected to remain above $1 billion in FY27 despite competition, supported by new launches.
UPDATED
FY27 EBITDA Margin: ~25%
EBITDA margin guided to around 25% for FY27, down from 29.7% in FY26, factoring in competition and higher R&D.
UPDATED
R&D Spend: ~8% of Sales in FY27
R&D expenditure expected to be around 8% of sales for the next fiscal year.
DROPPED
FY26 EBITDA margin guidance raised to 27-28%
Management raised full-year EBITDA margin guidance to 27-28% from earlier 25-26%, citing strong operational performance.
DROPPED
Semaglutide launch in India with first-year revenue target
Management expects semaglutide to be a ₹1,500 crore market opportunity in year one, with Lupin targeting ₹50-60 crore in first-year sales.
NEW RISK
Tolvaptan Patent Expiry
Patent expiry in September 2026 could bring generic competition, impacting US revenue.
NEW RISK
Inflationary Pressures
Rising freight and raw material costs due to geopolitical tensions could impact margins, though management has factored this into guidance.
NEW RISK
Dapagliflozin 505(b)(2) Launch Delay
Challenges in achieving product PK for the Dapagliflozin 505(b)(2) could delay launch beyond FY27.
RISK GONE
US base business price erosion
Low single-digit price erosion in the US base business persists, which could offset volume gains if new product launches slow.
RISK GONE
Biosimilar market competition
Increasing competition in biosimilars, including PBM private labels, could pressure margins despite Lupin's cost advantage.
RISK GONE
Elixa development delays
The respiratory product Elixa has faced development delays; management expects material progress only in calendar 2026.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Management expects high single-digit revenue growth in rupee terms for FY27.
A third player has settled and may enter the market, potentially pressuring Lupin's market share and margins.
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