JSW Steel FY25 Annual Earnings Summary
4 quarters covered · ₹1,68,824 Cr revenue · ₹3,491 Cr PAT · 13.6% average EBITDA margin.
Quarter-by-quarter progression
Management promises made during the year
Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q1 FY25Current-quarter commentary contains related evidence, but delivery is not conclusive enough for a clean met verdict.
Q2 FY25Current-quarter commentary contains related evidence, but delivery is not conclusive enough for a clean met verdict.
Q2 FY25Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q3 FY25Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q3 FY25Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q4 FY25Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q4 FY25Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q4 FY25Risks flagged during the year
Imports up 27% YoY in Q1; management raised concern about lack of trade measures making India a soft target.
Q2 FY25 · highIndia's Q2 imports jumped 43% YoY to 3.18M tons, driven by Chinese exports, pressuring domestic prices and market share.
Q3 FY25 · highIndia remained a net steel importer with net imports doubling to 3.6 million tons in 9M FY25. Trade safeguard measures are awaited; any delay could keep imports elevated and pressure domestic prices.
Q4 FY25 · highSupreme Court rejected JSW Steel's resolution plan for BPSL and directed refunds; management is pursuing legal remedies but outcome uncertain.
Q1 FY25 · mediumOhio and Texas combined EBITDA loss of $2.6 million due to HRC price decline from $900 to $720/ton.
Q1 FY25 · mediumLand clearance issues with government; approvals expected during the year but timeline uncertain.
Q2 FY25 · mediumNMDC increased iron ore prices twice recently, which management deemed unwarranted, potentially squeezing spreads despite coking coal savings.
Q2 FY25 · mediumOhio and Texas combined posted an EBITDA loss of $11 million due to price drops and unplanned maintenance shutdown, with uncertain recovery timing.
Q2 FY25 · mediumNet debt rose ~INR 4,900 crore to ~INR 85,000 crore due to CapEx, acquisition, and working capital build; CFO expects release of INR 1,500-2,000 crore in H2.
Q3 FY25 · mediumProposed state-level taxes on mineral rights and land could increase costs. Management expressed concern about sustainability but expects rational outcome.
Q3 FY25 · mediumUS operations reported EBITDA loss of $17.9 million, and Italian operations saw lower EBITDA. These entities are a small drag on cash flows, though improvement is expected in Q4.
Q4 FY25 · mediumCountries like Vietnam, Japan, and Korea with FTAs continue to pose import risks despite safeguard duties; management noted vigilance.
What changed through the year
Q1 FY25 · Consolidated production guidance of 28.4 million tons and sales guidance of 27 million tons for FY25 remains on track.
Management reaffirmed annual production and sales targets despite Q1 disruptions.
Q1 FY25 · Consolidated CapEx for FY25 expected to be about INR 30,000 crore.
Capital expenditure guidance for the full year, including expansions and mining payments.
Q1 FY25 · Q2 raw material cost savings: coking coal down $23-$28/ton, iron ore softer.
Benefits from lower input costs expected to improve steel spreads in Q2.
Q1 FY25 · New capacities at Vijayanagar and BPSL to ramp up in Q3 FY25.
Blast furnace and SMS at Vijayanagar commissioning by end-July/August; BPSL phase two ramp-up by Q3.
Q2 FY25 · FY25 volume guidance maintained at 27M tons sales, 28.4M tons production
Management reaffirmed full-year sales and production targets despite H1 headwinds, expecting H2 ramp-up from new capacities.
Q2 FY25 · Q3 coking coal cost reduction of $20-25/ton
Coking coal costs expected to decline further in Q3, aiding margin expansion.
Q2 FY25 · FY25 CapEx revised down to INR 16,000-17,000 crore
Reduction due to slurry pipeline transfer to JSW Infrastructure and BF3 shutdown deferral to FY26.
Q2 FY25 · Net debt to EBITDA target of 2.5-3x in medium term
CFO committed to reducing leverage, with absolute debt expected to taper in H2 from working capital release.
Q3 FY25 · FY25 volume guidance at ~98% of 28.4M tons production target
Management expects to achieve around 98% of the guided production volume of 28.4 million tons for FY25, due to delayed startup of JVML facility.
Q3 FY25 · Q4 coking coal cost reduction of $10-$15 per ton
Coking coal costs are expected to be lower by about $10-$15 per ton in Q4, aiding margins.
Q3 FY25 · Q4 iron ore cost benefit of ~₹350/ton from NMDC price cut
NMDC's iron ore price reduction of about ₹350 per ton in January will reflect in consumption costs in February and March.
Q3 FY25 · FY26 iron ore production target of ~28M tons from captive mines
Management targets about 15 million tons from Karnataka, 12 million tons from Odisha, and 1.3-1.4 million tons from Goa in FY26.
Q4 FY25 · FY26 production guidance of 30.5 million tons
Consolidated crude steel production expected at 30.5 million tons, implying ~10% growth over FY25.
Q4 FY25 · FY26 sales guidance of 29.2 million tons
Steel sales guided at 29.2 million tons, also ~10% growth, in line with domestic demand growth.
Q4 FY25 · Q1 FY26 coking coal cost reduction of $10-$15/ton
Coking coal costs expected to be lower by $10-$15 per ton in Q1 FY26 compared to Q4 FY25.
Q4 FY25 · Q1 FY26 price improvement of INR 3,200-3,250/ton
Realizations expected to improve by INR 3,200-3,250 per ton in Q1 FY26 vs Q4 FY25 due to price hikes in March-April.