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View Bear Cases →Indian Energy Exchange Ltd — Q3 FY24
IEX reported a strong Q3 FY24 with consolidated revenue of ₹141.2 crore (+20.3% YoY) and PAT of ₹91.8 crore (+18.9% YoY), driven by 28.3 BU total volume (+16.8% YoY).
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IEX reported a strong Q3 FY24 with consolidated revenue of ₹141.2 crore (+20.3% YoY) and PAT of ₹91.8 crore (+18.9% YoY), driven by 28.3 BU total volume (+16.8% YoY). Key drivers included regulatory tailwinds from GNA and IEGC implementation, which boosted Day-Ahead Market volumes to 15 BU (+30% QoQ) and improved market share to 95% in December. REC volumes surged 65% YoY after price deregulation. Management expects continued volume growth from rising power demand, improved fuel supply, and new thermal capacity. Risks include potential market coupling regulation, which could alter competitive dynamics, though management views implementation as distant.
IEX ने वित्त वर्ष 2024 की तीसरी तिमाही में अच्छा प्रदर्शन किया। कंपनी की कुल कमाई ₹141.2 करोड़ रही, जो पिछले साल से 20.3% ज़्यादा है। मुनाफा ₹91.8 करोड़ रहा, जो 18.9% बढ़ा। इसकी वजह बिजली कारोबार की मात्रा में 16.8% की बढ़ोतरी थी। नियमों में बदलाव से डे-अहेड मार्केट में बिजली की बिक्री 15 बिलियन यूनिट तक पहुँच गई, जो पिछली तिमाही से 30% ज़्यादा है। दिसंबर में बाजार हिस्सेदारी 95% हो गई। REC की बिक्री में 65% का उछाल आया। कंपनी को उम्मीद है कि बिजली की माँग बढ़ने से कारोबार और बढ़ेगा। हालाँकि, बाजार में नए नियमों से प्रतिस्पर्धा बदल सकती है, लेकिन कंपनी को लगता है कि यह जल्दी नहीं होगा।
Bear Cases1 alive · 1 deadPromises0 met · 2 missedRisks3 trackedTranscriptfull text
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Focused Modules
Promises
2 promises
Promise Tracker
0 delivered, 0 close, 2 missed.
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Risks
3 risks
Risk Intelligence
Market coupling regulation
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Transcript
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Read Transcript →Quarter Snapshot
Total traded volume
28.3 BU
+16.8% YoY
Total electricity volume across all segments in Q3 FY24.
Day-Ahead Market volume
15 BU
+30% QoQ
DAM volume increased sharply due to shift from DAC after GNA regulations.
Market share (electricity, Dec)
97%
+10pp YoY (approx)
IEX's market share in electricity segment reached 97% in December 2023.
REC volume growth
65%
+65% YoY
REC volumes surged after removal of base price and increased trading frequency.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Volume growth driven by thermal capacity addition and power demand
Management expects 20 GW thermal capacity addition in FY24 and power demand to exceed 256 GW in FY25, boosting exchange volumes.
NEW
URS power offering to improve sell liquidity
Draft rules mandate generators to offer un-requisitioned surplus power on exchanges, with penalties for non-compliance, expected to finalize within a month.
NEW
International Carbon Exchange launch via GIFT City
IEX plans to launch carbon exchange from GIFT City to facilitate dollar-denominated transactions, targeting launch in FY25.
DROPPED
Launch of 11-month long-duration contracts by January 2024
IEX will file a petition with CERC in 10-15 days to offer contracts up to 11 months, expecting approval by end-December and launch from January 2024.
DROPPED
Expect volume growth from GNA implementation
Management expects improved volumes in coming months due to GNA regulations, with October electricity volume growth already at ~20%.
DROPPED
Market coupling implementation unlikely in near term
Management believes CERC has not taken a view on market coupling; even if pursued, implementation would take 1.5-2 years.
NEW RISK
Decline in green market volumes
GDAM and GTAM volumes declined due to lower merchant renewable generation and higher captive consumption by states like Karnataka.
NEW RISK
Gas exchange volume volatility
IGX volumes declined 65% YoY in Q3 due to gas price fluctuations, though management expects recovery with lower prices.
RISK GONE
Shift to bilateral trades during high demand
In Q2, high power demand led DISCOMs to prefer bilateral contracts over exchange, reducing IEX's market share. This trend could recur during peak demand periods.
RISK GONE
Delays in green market liquidity
Green market volumes remain low despite policy support; management acknowledges need to improve liquidity but faces execution challenges.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Management expects 20 GW thermal capacity addition in FY24 and power demand to exceed 256 GW in FY25, boosting exchange volumes.
CERC is exploring market coupling, which could reduce IEX's competitive advantage and market share if implemented.
View Risks →