Indian Energy Exchange Management Guidance Tracker

Management expects total electricity volume to grow around 15% in FY24, supported by July volumes already up 22%.

Management expects volumes in the Long Duration Contracts segment to exceed 5 billion units in FY24.

Management expects improved volumes in coming months due to GNA regulations, with October electricity volume growth already at ~20%.

Management expects 20 GW thermal capacity addition in FY24 and power demand to exceed 256 GW in FY25, boosting exchange volumes.

Draft rules mandate generators to offer un-requisitioned surplus power on exchanges, with penalties for non-compliance, expected to finalize within a month.

Management expects IEX volume growth to exceed 15% in FY25, driven by 7-8% power demand growth and market share gains.

REC volumes expected to grow 25-30% in FY25, supported by lower prices and increased compliance.

Green market volumes expected to grow ~50% in FY25, recovering from a low base in FY24.

Management targets ~15 BU in long duration contracts in FY25, up from 10 BU in FY24.

Management expects India's power demand to grow at ~7% CAGR, with incremental demand of ~130 billion units, a good portion coming to exchanges.

Management expects 15-20% volume growth in FY26, assuming GDP-linked power demand growth of 6-7% and continued supply-side improvements.

Management expects up to 2 GW of renewable capacity (including VPPA and merchant) to participate in spot markets by end of FY25.

Management expects to trade about 20 billion units (20 million RECs) in FY26, implying ~12% growth over FY25's 17.8 million.

Management expects to maintain electricity volume growth between 15-20% for the remaining fiscal year.

Management expects the carbon credit trading market to be as big as the REC market once regulations are finalized.

Management expects IEX electricity volumes to grow at 15-20% per annum, consistent with historical trends.

IGX volumes are expected to grow at 25-30% annually over the next 4-5 years, driven by lower gas prices.

Management expects to maintain 15-20% volume growth in FY27, supported by rising power demand and new capacity additions.

IGX volumes may be flat in Q1 FY27 due to Middle East disruptions but should recover from Q2 onwards.

IEX plans to launch its voluntary carbon credit exchange platform within the current financial year.

IEX will file a petition with CERC in 10-15 days to offer contracts up to 11 months, expecting approval by end-December and launch from January 2024.

IEX plans to launch carbon exchange from GIFT City to facilitate dollar-denominated transactions, targeting launch in FY25.

IEX has filed for approval of an 11-month contract; hearings are complete and order is reserved. Launch expected after regulatory nod.

IEX is exploring diversification into coal exchange and EPR trading platforms, subject to government decisions and regulatory approvals.

CERC has admitted the petition for green real-time market; management expects launch within 2-3 months after public consultation and hearing.

Hearings completed, order reserved; management expects launch within 3-4 months, potentially opening a 40 BU market.

CERC approval for extending Term-Ahead Market contracts from 90 days to 11 months is expected soon, unlocking a 40 BU addressable market.

Government is working on amending the MMDRA to facilitate coal exchange; IEX is engaging with stakeholders but timeline is uncertain.

Petitions for green RTM and 3-11 month term-ahead contracts are pending CERC approval; hearings completed for green RTM.

Stakeholder comments closed for coal exchange; awaiting MMDR amendment. EPR platform EOI filed with CPCB, decision pending.

Board has approved in-principle to explore establishing a coal exchange, pending final regulations from Ministry of Coal.

Management believes CERC has not taken a view on market coupling; even if pursued, implementation would take 1.5-2 years.

CERC ordered coupling of day-ahead markets by Feb 2026; IEX management expressed skepticism about timeline feasibility due to operational complexities.

IEX has applied for a 1.5-year extension to reduce its IGX equity stake from 47.5% to 25% as per PNGRB regulations.

IEX plans to proceed with the IPO of Indian Gas Exchange this fiscal year, subject to regulatory approvals.