Bear Cases
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Market coupling regulation threatens IEX's dominant position Alive 4, weakening 1, dead 0.
View Bear Cases →Indian Energy Exchange Ltd — Q2 FY26
IEX reported Q2 FY26 revenue of INR 183.3 crore (+9.2% YoY) and PAT of INR 123.4 crore (+13.9% YoY), driven by 16.1% YoY growth in electricity volumes to 35.2 BU.
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2-Minute Summary
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IEX reported Q2 FY26 revenue of INR 183.3 crore (+9.2% YoY) and PAT of INR 123.4 crore (+13.9% YoY), driven by 16.1% YoY growth in electricity volumes to 35.2 BU. RTM volumes surpassed DAM for the first time, growing 39% YoY to 15 BU, aided by ample supply and lower prices. Management guided for 15-20% volume growth for FY26, citing favorable policy tailwinds like VPPA recognition, carbon market draft regulations, and battery storage expansion. Key risks include market coupling implementation (appeal pending in APTEL) and potential revenue dilution from lower REC fees and certificate volumes.
IEX ने दूसरी तिमाही में 183.3 करोड़ रुपये की कमाई की, जो पिछले साल से 9.2% ज्यादा है। मुनाफा 123.4 करोड़ रुपये रहा, जो 13.9% बढ़ा। बिजली की बिक्री 35.2 बिलियन यूनिट तक पहुंची, जो 16.1% ज्यादा है। पहली बार रीयल-टाइम बाजार (RTM) में डे-अहेड बाजार (DAM) से ज्यादा बिजली बिकी। RTM में 39% बढ़ोतरी हुई, क्योंकि बिजली सस्ती और भरपूर थी। कंपनी को इस साल 15-20% बिक्री बढ़ने की उम्मीद है, क्योंकि सरकार नई नीतियां ला रही है जैसे VPPA, कार्बन बाजार और बैटरी स्टोरेज। लेकिन कुछ जोखिम भी हैं - बाजार में बदलाव (मार्केट कपलिंग) पर फैसला अभी कोर्ट में है, और REC फीस कम होने से कमाई घट सकती है।
Bear Cases4 alive · 0 deadRisks3 trackedTranscriptfull text
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Risks
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Risk Intelligence
Market coupling implementation
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Read Transcript →Quarter Snapshot
Electricity Volume
35.2 BU
+16.1% YoY
Total electricity traded volume on IEX in Q2 FY26.
RTM Volume Share
36%
+6pp YoY
Real Time Market share surpassed DAM for the first time.
DAM Average Price
INR 3.93/unit
-12.5% YoY
Day Ahead Market price declined due to higher supply liquidity.
REC Volume
44 lakh
-30% YoY
Renewable Energy Certificates traded lower YoY.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
FY26 volume growth of 15-20%
Management expects to maintain electricity volume growth between 15-20% for the remaining fiscal year.
NEW
IGX stake reduction to 25% by Dec 2025 with extension request
IEX has applied for a 1.5-year extension to reduce its IGX equity stake from 47.5% to 25% as per PNGRB regulations.
NEW
Carbon credit trading market size comparable to REC market
Management expects the carbon credit trading market to be as big as the REC market once regulations are finalized.
DROPPED
Market coupling implementation by February 2026
CERC ordered coupling of day-ahead markets by Feb 2026; IEX management expressed skepticism about timeline feasibility due to operational complexities.
DROPPED
Green RTM and term-ahead contract approvals awaited
Petitions for green RTM and 3-11 month term-ahead contracts are pending CERC approval; hearings completed for green RTM.
DROPPED
Coal exchange and EPR platform development
Stakeholder comments closed for coal exchange; awaiting MMDR amendment. EPR platform EOI filed with CPCB, decision pending.
NEW RISK
Revenue divergence from volume growth
Revenue grew only 9.2% vs volume growth of 16.1% due to lower REC volumes and fee reduction from INR 40 to INR 20 per certificate.
NEW RISK
Slow progress on new product approvals
Key petitions like Green RTM, 11-month TAM contracts, and peak DAM/RTM segments are pending regulatory approval, delaying potential volume catalysts.
RISK GONE
Competition using transaction fee cuts
Analyst raised possibility of rivals cutting fees to gain share; management deflected, saying they will 'deal with it when we reach there'.
RISK GONE
Implementation delays and regulatory uncertainty
Management noted many operational aspects (common software, settlement) need resolution; timeline may slip, creating uncertainty.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q2 FY25, Q4 FY25
CERC approval for extending Term-Ahead Market contracts from 90 days to 11 months is expected soon, unlocking a 40 BU addressable market.
Mentioned in Q1 FY26, Q2 FY25
Stakeholder comments closed for coal exchange; awaiting MMDR amendment. EPR platform EOI filed with CPCB, decision pending.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Management expects to maintain electricity volume growth between 15-20% for the remaining fiscal year.
CERC order mandates DAM coupling by Jan 2026; IEX has appealed in APTEL.
View Risks →