HUL Management Guidance Tracker
38 forward-looking guidance items tracked across 10 quarters.
Revenue
If commodities remain at current levels, HUL expects price growth to be near flat or marginally negative, with growth fully led by volume.
Q2 FY24Price growth to be marginally negative if commodities stayActiveManagement expects price growth to turn marginally negative in the near term if current commodity prices hold.
Q1 FY25Near-zero pricing in short term, low single-digit positive by end of FY25ActiveExcluding one-off credit in Q2 FY24 base, intrinsic price growth expected near zero in short term, turning low single-digit positive by year-end.
Q2 FY25Low single-digit price growth expected in near termActiveManagement expects low single-digit price growth in the coming quarters due to commodity inflation, while maintaining competitive price-value equation.
Q3 FY25Low single-digit price growth expectedActiveIf commodity prices remain at current levels, HUL expects low single-digit price growth in the near term.
Q4 FY25Price growth expected in low single-digit rangeActiveIf commodities remain at current levels, management expects price growth to be in low single-digit range for the near term.
Q1 FY26Low single-digit price growth if commodities stay in current rangeActiveIf commodity prices remain within the current range, management anticipates low single-digit price growth.
Q2 FY26Low single-digit price growth expectedActiveIf commodity prices remain at current levels, management expects low single-digit price growth going forward.
Q3 FY26FY27 revenue growth better than FY26TrackedManagement expects FY27 top-line growth to exceed FY26, driven by improving macros and internal actions.
Q3 FY26Low single-digit price increases expected over FY27TrackedCalibrated price increases across portfolio, especially in home care, to offset input cost inflation.
Q4 FY26Price increases of 2-5% already takenActiveCalibrated price increases of 2-5% implemented across home care and personal care to offset input cost inflation.
Growth
Management expects to sustain volume growth momentum despite transition, supported by price reductions and A&P investments.
Q2 FY24Volume recovery expected to be gradualActiveManagement expects volume recovery to continue gradually, supported by moderating inflation and festive season.
Q1 FY25Market share breadth to reach 60% by end of calendar yearTrackedMAT business winning metric expected to return to 60% levels by end of calendar year, with last 3-month metric already at ~55%.
Q3 FY25Demand moderation to continue in near termActiveManagement expects current subdued demand trends to persist in the near term, with gradual rural recovery and urban moderation.
Q4 FY25First half of FY26 to be better than second half of FY25ActiveManagement expects growth trends to gradually improve in H1 FY26 due to improving macro conditions and internal portfolio transformation actions.
Q1 FY26First half FY26 better than second half FY25ActiveGrowth guidance unchanged: H1 FY26 expected to be better than H2 FY25, with gradual recovery sustained.
Q2 FY26H2 growth better than H1ActiveManagement expects second half of FY26 to deliver better growth than first half, driven by improving macros and internal initiatives.
Q3 FY26H2 FY26 better than H1 FY26ActiveSecond half of FY26 is expected to show stronger growth than the first half, with Q3 as a normalized base.
Q4 FY26FY27 to be better than FY26TrackedManagement expects FY27 performance to exceed FY26, driven by portfolio transformation and execution improvements.
Margins
Focus on rebuilding gross margins and investing competitively behind A&P; EBITDA margin will be an outcome.
Q2 FY24EBITDA margin to be maintained in a healthy rangeActiveManagement aims to keep EBITDA margin in a healthy range while investing in brands and capabilities.
Q1 FY25EBITDA margins to be maintained at current levels in short termActiveManagement expects to maintain current EBITDA margin levels (~23.8%) in the near term, with modest expansion in medium term.
Q1 FY25Modest margin expansion in medium term via mix and operating leverageTrackedMedium-term margin expansion driven by premiumization (300 bps improvement in premium mix over 3 years) and operating leverage from volume growth.
Q2 FY25EBITDA margin to be maintained at current healthy levelsActiveManagement aims to keep EBITDA margin at current ~23.8% levels, with some basis points fluctuation, through productivity savings and calibrated pricing.
Q3 FY25EBITDA margin at lower end of 23-24% rangeActiveManagement expects EBITDA margin to be at the lower end of the 23-24% band in the near term due to inflationary material prices.
Q4 FY25EBITDA margin guidance of 22%-23% for next 2-3 quartersActiveManagement expects EBITDA margin to be in the 22%-23% range for the next 2-3 quarters as they step up investments behind growth, before returning to modest expansion.
Q4 FY25Gross margin expected to moderate furtherActiveGross margin is expected to moderate due to commodity inflation and continued commitment to provide the right price-value equation to consumers.
Q1 FY26EBITDA margin guidance of 22%-23% for near termActiveManagement expects EBITDA margin to remain in the 22%-23% range for the next few quarters, with sequential gross margin improvement reinvested into the business.
Q2 FY26EBITDA margin guidance 22%-23%ActiveNear-to-mid-term EBITDA margin guidance remains 22%-23%, with ice cream demerger adding 50-60 bps to reported margin from Q3.
Q3 FY26EBITDA margin to stay in 22-23% rangeActiveConsolidated EBITDA margin will remain within the guided range of 22-23% (excluding ice cream), as growth investments are prioritized.
Q4 FY26Medium-term EBITDA margin guidance 22.5-23.5%TrackedMargin guidance maintained at 22.5-23.5% for the medium term, with flexibility to operate at lower end if cost pressures persist.
Other
Board approved separation of ice cream business; mode (sale or demerger) to be decided by end of the year, with listing expected.
Q2 FY25Full-year effective tax rate marginally above 26%TrackedETR for H1 was 26.1%; full-year ETR expected to be marginally above 26%.
Q3 FY25Ice cream demerger and Minimalist acquisition timelinesActiveIce cream demerger scheme approved; Minimalist acquisition expected to close in Q1 FY26, subject to approvals.
Q1 FY26Ice cream demerger completion by Q4 FY26TrackedThe demerger of the ice cream business into Quality Walls India Limited is on track for completion by Q4 FY26, subject to approvals.
Q2 FY26Ice cream demerger timelineActiveIce cream demerger expected to complete in December quarter, with listing in Q4 FY26, subject to regulatory approvals.