Hindalco Industries FY24 Annual Earnings Summary
4 quarters covered · ₹2,15,962 Cr revenue · ₹10,155 Cr PAT · 0.0% average EBITDA margin.
Quarter-by-quarter progression
Management promises made during the year
Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q2 FY24Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q2 FY24Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q3 FY24Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q4 FY24Risks flagged during the year
LME aluminum prices remain volatile between $2,100-2,300/ton, with uncertainty around Chinese production and demand.
Q3 FY24 · highThe project cost escalated from $2.5B to $4.1B due to civil/structural underestimation; further overruns could impact returns.
Q1 FY24 · mediumRegulatory issues with Coal Bearing Areas Act continue to delay allocation of Meenakshi mine; Chakla mine expected only in FY25.
Q1 FY24 · mediumNovelis shipments declined 6% QoQ due to lower can shipments; recovery hinges on return of promotional activities in North America.
Q2 FY24 · mediumSpot auction premiums rose in October due to high power demand; Q3 coal costs may increase.
Q2 FY24 · mediumPrices remain range-bound; macro headwinds could delay recovery despite tight supply-demand.
Q2 FY24 · mediumRBI monitoring crude oil impact; could affect input costs and demand.
Q3 FY24 · mediumIndia Aluminium EBITDA per ton is highly dependent on LME prices; a sustained downturn could compress margins.
Q3 FY24 · mediumNew entrants in copper may pressure margins; spot TC/RC is already declining due to supply tightness.
Q4 FY24 · mediumThe Chakla coal mine box cut has been delayed to Q3 CY2025 due to land acquisition and forest clearance issues, which could impact coal cost stability.
Q4 FY24 · mediumAluminum prices remain volatile due to geopolitical factors and sanctions, which could impact realized prices despite hedging.
Q4 FY24 · mediumDisruptions in copper mines and new smelter commissioning are causing subdued TC/RC levels, which may pressure copper margins in the short to medium term.
What changed through the year
Q1 FY24 · India aluminum cost reduction of 3% in Q2
Management expects costs to decline by 3% sequentially in Q2 FY24, driven by higher linkage coal share (57-60%) and lower coal prices.
Q1 FY24 · Novelis EBITDA per ton to reach $525 by Q4 FY24
Management expressed increased confidence in achieving $525/ton EBITDA by the Jan-Mar quarter, with near-term range of $450-500.
Q1 FY24 · India downstream aluminum volumes to exceed 90 KT in Q2
Downstream volumes expected to cross 90 KT in Q2 FY24, with EBITDA per ton remaining well above $200.
Q1 FY24 · Novelis CapEx guidance of $1.6-1.9 billion for FY24
Annual CapEx for Novelis guided at $1.6-1.9 billion; Q1 spend was $333 million, expected to ramp up.
Q2 FY24 · Q3 FY24 cost of production flattish QoQ
Coal costs expected slightly up, but offset by lower input costs like caustic, furnace oil, CP coke.
Q2 FY24 · Novelis CapEx guidance lowered to $1.5-$1.8 billion
CapEx expected at lower end of range; Bay Minette commissioning late calendar 2025.
Q2 FY24 · India CapEx for FY24: INR 4,000-4,500 crore
Includes strategic projects; detailed FY25 guidance in February call.
Q2 FY24 · Alumina refinery in Odisha: first 1M tons in 36 months
CapEx ~INR 6,000 crore for first phase; bauxite supply secured via OMC MOU.
Q3 FY24 · Novelis Q4 FY24 EBITDA per ton of $525
Novelis expects to deliver a sustainable $525 EBITDA per ton in Q4 FY24, driven by market recovery.
Q3 FY24 · Bay Minette project cost at $4.1 billion with P85 confidence
Management is 85% confident of completing the Bay Minette project at $4.1 billion, with commissioning in H2 CY2026.
Q3 FY24 · Consolidated net leverage to rise to ~3x in 2-2.5 years
Net leverage will increase to around 3x as Bay Minette spending ramps up, from below 2.5x at FY24 end.
Q3 FY24 · India CapEx of INR 6,000-7,000 crore per year without borrowing
India operations can sustain CapEx of INR 6,000-7,000 crore annually from internal cash generation.
Q4 FY24 · Costs expected to decline 1-2% in Q1 FY25
Management guided that aluminum costs in Q1 FY25 will likely be 1-2% lower than Q4 FY24, driven by lower coal and input costs.
Q4 FY24 · Alumina sales of 160-170 KT in Q1 FY25
Management expects alumina sales of about 160-170 KT in Q1 FY25, up from 22 KT in Q4 FY24, as brownfield expansion ramps up.
Q4 FY24 · Chakla coal mine box cut expected in Q3 CY2025
The Chakla coal mine box cut is expected to occur in Q3 of calendar year 2025 (Q3 FY2025), delayed from earlier guidance due to land acquisition issues.
Q4 FY24 · Copper inner groove tubes project commissioning by end of CY2024
The copper inner groove tubes project is on track and expected to be commissioned by the end of calendar year 2024.