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DEEPAKFRTLSRSANDPTRCHMCL Diversified 10 Feb 2026

Deepakfrtlsrsandptrchmcl Ltd — Q3 FY26

Deepak Fertilizers reported a challenging Q3 FY26 with consolidated revenue of ₹2,830 crore (+10% YoY) but EBITDA fell 27% YoY to ₹353 crore and PAT dropped 34% to ₹141 crore.

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Revenue ₹2,830 Cr +10%
EBITDA ₹353 Cr -27%
PAT ₹141 Cr -34%
EBITDA Margin 12.47% -640bps
Duration 61 min
Read Time 1 min read

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2-Minute Summary

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Deepak Fertilizers reported a challenging Q3 FY26 with consolidated revenue of ₹2,830 crore (+10% YoY) but EBITDA fell 27% YoY to ₹353 crore and PAT dropped 34% to ₹141 crore. The miss was driven by extended monsoon impacting mining activity and TAN demand, raw material cost inflation (ammonia prices rising to $420-430/ton), and weak IPA realizations (down ~22-23% YoY). Crop nutrition margins were squeezed by inadequate subsidy pass-through and a shift to lower-value products. Management expects recovery in Q4 as mining normalizes and Rabi season picks up. Key catalysts: Gopalpur TAN project (91% complete) and H2 nitric acid project (79% complete) to commission in Q1 FY27, and a 15-year LNG contract expected to reduce ammonia break-even costs by double-digit percentage. Risk: sustained softness in IPA and nitric acid pricing could delay margin recovery.

Promises0 met · 2 missedRisks3 trackedTranscriptfull text
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12 analyst questions audited, 1 evaded or deflected.

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Promises 2 promises

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!Risks 3 risks

Risk Intelligence

Sustained softness in IPA pricing

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Quarter Snapshot

TAN market share 40%
flat YoY

Company holds ~40% market share in technical ammonium nitrate in India.

B2C segment growth (mining chemicals) 26%
+26% YoY

B2C segment in mining chemicals grew 26% YoY in Q3, driven by direct sales and downstream solutions.

Specialty & crop tech share of CNB revenue 30%
+8pp QoQ

Specialty fertilizers and crop tech contributed 30% of crop nutrition revenue, up from previous quarter.

Gopalpur TAN project completion 91%
N/A

Gopalpur technical ammonium nitrate project is 91% complete, expected commissioning in Q1 FY27.

What Changed vs Last Quarter

Comparing Q3 FY26 vs Q2 FY26
2 new guidance3 dropped3 new risk3 risk resolved
NEW
15-year LNG contract to reduce ammonia break-even by double-digit percentage

The long-term LNG contract with a Norwegian giant will lower gas costs, reducing the ammonia break-even level significantly from current ~$430-440/ton.

NEW
Export quota for TAN may be removed

Discussions with ministries suggest the 50,000 ton/year export quota may be removed as India becomes self-sufficient in ammonium nitrate.

UPDATED
Gopalpur TAN and H2 nitric acid projects to commission in Q1 FY27

Both projects are progressing well (91% and 79% completion) and will materially enhance competitiveness and margin resilience once operational.

DROPPED
New TAN plant capacity utilization: 70% in FY27, 80%+ in FY28

Management expects the new TAN plant to achieve ~70% capacity utilization in FY27 and 80%+ in FY28.

DROPPED
Ammonia plant capacity increase of ~10% after Q4 shutdown

A planned shutdown in Q4 FY26 is expected to increase ammonia plant capacity by ~10% and improve efficiency.

DROPPED
LNG contract with Equinor to reduce gas costs from May 2026

The new LNG contract with Equinor will start supply from May 2026, expected to materially reduce gas costs and lower ammonia breakeven.

NEW RISK
Sustained softness in IPA pricing

IPA prices have corrected ~22-23% YoY due to weak acetone prices and imports; management expects muted sentiment to continue for at least a couple of quarters.

NEW RISK
Increased competition from new TAN capacity

Analyst raised concern about 500 KTPA additional TAN capacity from Chambal and GNFC by FY27-28, which could create supply glut and pressure margins.

NEW RISK
Nitric acid pricing pressure from imports

Excess imports and dumping from abroad have kept nitric acid prices under pressure, though management views this as a short-term phenomenon.

RISK GONE
IPA margin pressure from global oversupply

IPA segment faces margin pressure due to global oversupply and US imports after anti-dumping duties on China, with no near-term recovery visibility.

RISK GONE
Ammonia plant incentive reduction due to GST rate cut

GST rate cuts have reduced state incentives for the ammonia plant, impacting returns. Management is representing to the government but no resolution yet.

RISK GONE
Potential delay in ammonia turnaround benefits

While ammonia prices have rebounded, the planned Q4 shutdown and efficiency gains may take time to materialize, and global price volatility remains a risk.

Fast read

Guidance and risk preview

Top guidance Gopalpur TAN and H2 nitric acid projects to commission in Q1 FY27

Both projects are progressing well (91% and 79% completion) and will materially enhance competitiveness and margin resilience once operational.

Top risk Sustained softness in IPA pricing

IPA prices have corrected ~22-23% YoY due to weak acetone prices and imports; management expects muted sentiment to continue for at least a couple...

View Risks →