Dabur Management Guidance Tracker

Management reiterated maintaining EBITDA margin in the 19-19.5% range, with any gross margin upside reinvested into media.

Management reiterated commitment to ~19.5% annual operating margin despite INR 63 crore legal cost in H1 and recurring costs of ~INR 20 crore per quarter.

Management expects Q4 EBITDA margin expansion to be higher than the 50 bps seen in the first nine months, despite seasonal mix effects.

On a like-to-like basis (excluding legal costs), operating margin is expected to be around 20%, with gradual improvement.

Around 80% of gross margin gains will be reinvested into advertising and promotion, with balance flowing to operating margin.

Post-merger, Sesa's operating margin is expected to inch up to 18-19%, similar to Dabur, once synergies are realized.

Management aims to maintain current margin levels in Q4 through price increases and cost savings.

Expects ~5% inflation and plans calibrated price increases across categories to offset input cost pressures.

Management targets a significant improvement in operating margin for the full year, supported by premiumization and cost initiatives.

Management indicated margins will be better than top line, supported by cost savings of ~INR 60 crore in H1 and continued initiatives.

Management anticipates EBITDA margin expansion in Q4 compared to last year, despite Q4 being a lower margin quarter.

Management aims to return to 20% operating margin through cost savings and proactive price increases.

Management aims to improve margins year-on-year through pricing, premiumization, and cost savings, despite 10% input cost inflation.

Foods portfolio (Hommade + Badshah) expected to reach INR 450 crore exit run rate this year, targeting INR 500 crore next year.

Despite high spice inflation, Dabur remains committed to exiting the fiscal year with a run rate of INR 500 crore from its foods portfolio.

Management committed to exiting the fiscal year with a run rate of INR 500 crore from the foods portfolio, including Badshah.

Beverage business targets double-digit growth in FY25, assuming normal summer weather.

Management expects second-half revenue growth to return to mid-to-high single digits, subject to good winters and normal FMCG demand.

Management expects sequential improvement and mid-single-digit value growth in Q4, driven by price increases and volume recovery.

Management expects full-year FY26 India business to achieve high single-digit value growth, with sequential improvement through the year.

Management expects high single-digit consolidated revenue growth for FY26, with Q2 likely double-digit due to a low base.

Due to a favorable base (5.5% decline last year), Q2 is expected to deliver double-digit growth, though beverages may be low single-digit.

Management expects second-half revenue growth in mid-to-high single digits, backed by low-to-mid single-digit volume growth.

Management expects Q4 revenue growth to be high single-digit, in line with or slightly above Q3's 6.1%.

Targeting high single-digit to low double-digit revenue growth for FY27, with volume growth being the primary driver.

Management upgraded from high single-digit to low double-digit revenue growth for FY27, driven by price increases and volume growth.

New therapeutics division with 400 specialists targeting INR 150 crore incremental revenue in FY24, reaching 70,000 allopathic doctors.

Full-year guidance for international business: double-digit growth in constant currency, with distribution changes fully resolved.

Management expects international business to continue high double-digit constant currency growth in second half, barring escalation of Middle East conflict.

Management targets volume growth of 5-7.5% for FY25, driven by rural recovery and distribution expansion.

Management expects volume growth to continue picking up in subsequent quarters, driven by rural recovery and government spending.

Management expects the home care portfolio to grow from INR 700 crore to INR 1,000 crore in a two- to three-year time frame.

Dabur aims to achieve sustainable double-digit CAGR in both top line and bottom line by financial year 2028.

HPC portfolio is expected to grow at least double-digit in FY27, with hair oils, shampoos, and home care continuing strong momentum.

Despite Middle East disruptions, management expects international business to grow in double digits, aided by rupee depreciation and price increases.

Direct distribution reach will increase from current 1.4 million to 1.5 million outlets by end of fiscal year.

Direct distribution reach to increase from 1.42 million to 1.5 million outlets by end of FY24.

Management aims to grow home care (Odomos, Odonil) from ~INR 800 crore to INR 1,000 crore by expanding total addressable market.

Company is scouting for M&A targets in wellness foods and health, with a path to profitability equitative to base margins.

Legal costs related to the U.S. case are expected to be lower in FY25 due to a change to more cost-effective lawyers.

The US legal case will incur similar costs as FY24, around INR 80-90 crore, spread quarterly.

Legal costs expected to be ~INR 80 crore for FY25 vs INR 100 crore last year, with potential insurance recovery of 50%.

Management aims to reduce distributor inventory from 21 days to around 19 days by end of December 2024.

Partnered with McKinsey to refine three-year strategy, focusing on beverages and healthcare; exercise to conclude by end of FY25.

Management plans to exit tea, baby diapers, and Vita (MFD) categories, which are margin-dilutive and contribute less than 1% of revenue.

Capital allocation of INR 500 crore for minority/majority stakes in digital-first brands within existing categories (HPC, healthcare, foods).