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Canara Bank reported a mixed Q4 FY26. Full-year net profit grew 12.69% to ₹19,187 crore, driven by strong credit growth of 15.30% and NIM improvement of 9 bps QoQ to 2.5-2.6%. However, quarterly operating profit fell sharply due to the absence of ₹1,930 crore listing gains from Canara HSBC and Canara Rebecca, and MTM losses of ₹800 crore from bond yield volatility. Asset quality improved with GNPA down 110 bps YoY to 1.84% and SMA book declining. Management guided for 11-12% credit growth in FY27 (confident of exceeding), NIM of 2.5-2.6%, and ROA above 1%. ECL implementation impact of ~₹10,000 crore can be absorbed over four years. Key risk: elevated slippages in MSME and agri segments could pressure credit costs.
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Guidance to track
- Management guided for 11-12% advances growth, but expressed confidence in exceeding this, similar to last year's 10-11% guidance which ended at 15.30%.
- Net interest margin is expected to sustain at 2.5-2.6% in FY27, supported by conscious pricing on deposits and focus on high-yield RAM credit.
- Return on assets is guided to be above 1% for the full year, despite the absence of one-time listing gains.
- The bank estimates a total ECL provision requirement of about ₹10,000 crore, which can be staggered over four years, with profits of ₹19,000-20,000 crore providing ample buffer.
Risks flagged
- Out of total slippages of ₹2,771 crore in Q4, ₹1,333 crore came from MSME, indicating stress in this segment.
- While the one-time impact is manageable, the run-rate impact of ECL on credit costs is not yet quantified and could be higher than current levels.
- Management cited geopolitical tensions causing bond yield movements and MTM losses of ₹800 crore in Q4, which could recur.
- Recent media reports of gold loan frauds pose operational risk, though management has implemented checks and NPA remains minimal.
Key quotes
- Our credit growth is very high at 15.30%. So that places us uniquely to negotiate on pricing. We are not entertaining low yield advances.
- We are very very conscious on pricing on bulk deposits and CD. So we work on the blended model only and we are very conscious what is the rate of inflow and what is the rate of outgo.
- Our SMA is best in the industry it is only 2.75%.
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