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What the record says.
Bajaj Finance reported a solid Q3 FY25 with PAT of ₹4,308 crore (+18% YoY) and AUM growth of 28% YoY to ₹3.98 lakh crore. New loan bookings hit a record 12 million and customer franchise reached 97.12 million, on track to cross 100 million by year-end. Credit costs stabilized at 2.16% of average AUM, with management guiding Q4 credit cost to 2.00-2.05% and FY26 below 2%. Operating efficiency improved as OpEx-to-NTI fell to 33.1% from 33.9% a year ago. However, asset quality remains under watch: Stage 2 and Stage 3 formations are still elevated, particularly in urban B2C and two-wheeler portfolios. The company is proactively pruning risky segments and expects credit normalization by Q4. The strategic partnership with Bharti Airtel and the FinAI transformation (BFL 3.0) are key medium-term growth drivers. Risk: A sharper-than-expected economic slowdown could delay credit cost recovery and pressure growth.
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Guidance to track
- Management expects loan loss to average AUF to decline to 2.00-2.05% in Q4, from 2.16% in Q3, driven by portfolio pruning and improving collection efficiency.
- If Q4 credit cost lands in the guided range, management expects FY26 credit cost to be sub-2%, barring significant macro deterioration.
- Management targets consolidated balance sheet growth of around 25% in FY26, with profit growth of 22-23%.
- After returning to growth mode, the rural B2C segment is expected to grow 20-23% in the next fiscal year.
Risks flagged
- Despite lower default rates, collection efficiency in urban B2C remains below normal, and management expects this segment to take the longest to normalize.
- The two-wheeler and three-wheeler portfolio is classified as 'amber' with Stage 2 rising from 3.83% to 5.53% YoY, though part of the degradation is due to portfolio degrowth.
- Management acknowledged that pricing pressure has intensified as credit growth slows, which could compress NIMs if not offset by operating leverage.
- Management flagged that high-frequency data shows the economy slowing, which could worsen asset quality and delay credit cost recovery.
Key quotes
- Loan losses have begun to stabilize, or have rather stabilized. Came in flat in terms of percentage points virtually between Q2 and Q3.
- We are well on course to cross 100 million customer franchise. It'll be a big milestone, I would say, for us as a firm.
- We have pruned businesses. We've talked about it over the last two quarters. Three businesses I would flag out. The largest increase in contribution was two-wheeler. That's a winding down book.
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