Coalindia vs Bajajfinsv Q3 FY24

Coal India reported a strong Q3 FY24 with highest-ever nine-month revenue of INR 104,914 crore (+5% YoY) and PAT of INR 23,849 crore. Production grew 11% YoY to 531.9 MT, driven by robust demand from power plants and improved logistics. Management maintained FY24 production guidance of 780 MT (likely ~770 MT due to SCCL lag) and set FY25 target at 838 MT. E-auction premiums moderated to 36-48% in Jan-Feb from Q3's 116% due to higher domestic availability. CAPEX guidance for FY25 is INR 17,500 crore, funded largely through internal accruals. Key risks include potential further decline in e-auction premiums and execution challenges in SCCL's ramp-up.

Guidance read

FY24 production target of ~780 MT: Management expects to achieve ~770 MT production for FY24, slightly below the original 780 MT target due to SCCL lag, but with efforts to minimize the gap. FY25 production target of 838 MT: Ministry has set a production target of 838 MT for FY25, down from initial 850 MT due to high coal stocks, with a review in April. CAPEX of INR 17,500 crore for FY25: CAPEX target for FY25 is INR 17,500 crore, including coal mining expansion, solar projects, and diversification initiatives. E-auction volume to be at least 15% of production: Management aims to maintain e-auction volumes at 15% or more of production, with potential to increase up to 20% if demand permits.

Risk read

Key risks include Declining e-auction premiums — E-auction premiums have fallen sharply from 116% in Q3 to 36-48% in Jan-Feb, which could pressure realizations if the trend continues.; SCCL production shortfall — SCCL is lagging its target by 8-9 MT due to land issues and EC clearances, posing a risk to overall production targets.; Accounting policy change impact on tax — Change in shipping activity adjustment accounting may lead to tax implications, though management expects limited net impact.; Receivables buildup — Trade receivables increased from INR 13,000 crore to INR 17,000 crore, driven by delayed payments from power utilities, which could strain cash flows..

Promise ledger

Of 2 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 2 missed.

Bajaj Finserv reported a strong Q3 FY24 with consolidated total income up 34% to INR 29,038 crore and PAT up 21% to INR 2,158 crore. Growth was driven by robust performance across subsidiaries: Bajaj Finance (AUM +35%, PAT +22%), Bajaj Allianz General Insurance (GDPI +18.7% despite Nat Cat impact), and Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance (IRNB +24%, NBV +19%). The company announced the acquisition of Vidal Healthcare for INR 325 crore to strengthen its healthcare payment ecosystem. Management expressed confidence in sustained growth, citing favorable macro conditions and strategic investments. Key risks include potential regulatory changes on life insurance surrender norms and competitive pressure in motor insurance.

Guidance read

Bajaj Allianz Life to maintain market-leading growth: Management expects continued strong growth in IRNB, with focus on product mix and channel diversification. Bajaj Allianz General to sustain above-industry growth: The company aims to grow faster than the industry in profitable segments, leveraging distribution expansion. Bajaj Finserv Health to scale via Vidal acquisition: The acquisition of Vidal Healthcare will accelerate Finserv Health's position in the healthcare payment spectrum. Bajaj Finance to resume digital card issuance soon: Deficiencies pointed out by RBI have been mostly cleared; disbursements expected to resume after regulatory approval.

Risk read

Key risks include Regulatory risk on life insurance surrender norms — Proposed IRDAI changes to surrender values could impact product profitability and persistency.; Intense competition in motor insurance — Motor insurance growth slowed to 5% due to competitive pricing and conservative underwriting stance.; Dependence on bank insurance partners — Banks may prioritize deposits over third-party products, pressuring bancassurance growth.; Natural catastrophe claims impact — Frequent Nat Cat events increased combined ratio to 102.9% in Q3; core profitability remains strong..

Promise ledger

Of 3 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 3 missed.