Bharat Petroleum Corporation vs Bajajfinsv Q3 FY24

BPCL reported Q3 FY24 revenue of ₹1,29,976 crore and PAT of ₹3,397 crore, with nine-month PAT at ₹22,449 crore (vs loss last year). Refinery throughput hit 9.86 MMT (100%+ capacity) despite Mumbai shutdown, with GRM of $13.35/bbl (premium to Singapore). Russian crude accounted for 40% of imports, discounts stable. Marketing sales grew 5.1% Apr-Dec, market share in petrol/diesel improved. Management outlined Project Aspire with ₹1.5-1.7 lakh crore capex over 5 years, targeting net zero by 2040. Key projects: Bina refinery expansion (7.8 to 11 MMT) and Kochi polypropylene unit (₹5,044 crore). Mozambique LNG restart expected by mid-2024. Risk: volatility in crude prices and petchem margins due to global demand weakness.

Guidance read

Capex of ₹1.5-1.7 lakh crore over 5 years: Planned capital outlay includes ₹75,000 crore for refineries/petchem, ₹32,000 crore upstream, ₹25,000 crore each for gas and marketing, ₹10,000 crore for renewables. Rights issue to be completed by March 2024: Board approved rights issue; management aims to complete within current financial year (FY24). Mozambique LNG restart by mid-2024: Force majeure expected to be lifted around June/July 2024; work to commence shortly after. Petrol demand growth 4-5%, diesel 1.5-2% over 5 years: Management expects MS growth of 4-5% and HSD growth of 1.5-2% CAGR over next 5 years despite EV adoption.

Risk read

Key risks include Crude price volatility and marketing margins — Crude oil prices range-bound $80-90/bbl; marketing margins could turn negative if prices spike above $85/bbl.; Petchem margins under pressure from Chinese demand — Polypropylene margins remain negative due to weak Chinese demand; recovery uncertain.; Red Sea disruptions impacting crude sourcing — While currently covered till April, prolonged Red Sea tensions could raise shipping costs and narrow Russian crude discounts.; High capex may strain balance sheet — Peak debt-equity expected at 1x; returns from large projects (Bina, Mozambique) will take 4-5 years to materialize..

Promise ledger

Of 3 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 3 missed.

Bajaj Finserv reported a strong Q3 FY24 with consolidated total income up 34% to INR 29,038 crore and PAT up 21% to INR 2,158 crore. Growth was driven by robust performance across subsidiaries: Bajaj Finance (AUM +35%, PAT +22%), Bajaj Allianz General Insurance (GDPI +18.7% despite Nat Cat impact), and Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance (IRNB +24%, NBV +19%). The company announced the acquisition of Vidal Healthcare for INR 325 crore to strengthen its healthcare payment ecosystem. Management expressed confidence in sustained growth, citing favorable macro conditions and strategic investments. Key risks include potential regulatory changes on life insurance surrender norms and competitive pressure in motor insurance.

Guidance read

Bajaj Allianz Life to maintain market-leading growth: Management expects continued strong growth in IRNB, with focus on product mix and channel diversification. Bajaj Allianz General to sustain above-industry growth: The company aims to grow faster than the industry in profitable segments, leveraging distribution expansion. Bajaj Finserv Health to scale via Vidal acquisition: The acquisition of Vidal Healthcare will accelerate Finserv Health's position in the healthcare payment spectrum. Bajaj Finance to resume digital card issuance soon: Deficiencies pointed out by RBI have been mostly cleared; disbursements expected to resume after regulatory approval.

Risk read

Key risks include Regulatory risk on life insurance surrender norms — Proposed IRDAI changes to surrender values could impact product profitability and persistency.; Intense competition in motor insurance — Motor insurance growth slowed to 5% due to competitive pricing and conservative underwriting stance.; Dependence on bank insurance partners — Banks may prioritize deposits over third-party products, pressuring bancassurance growth.; Natural catastrophe claims impact — Frequent Nat Cat events increased combined ratio to 102.9% in Q3; core profitability remains strong..

Promise ledger

Of 3 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 3 missed.