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AGR liability uncertainty
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Bharti Airtel Limited — Q3 FY26
Bharti Airtel reported a steady Q3 FY26 with consolidated revenue of INR 54,000 crore (up 3.5% QoQ) and EBITDA of INR 27,700 crore (margin 51.3%, up 30bps QoQ).
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Bharti Airtel reported a steady Q3 FY26 with consolidated revenue of INR 54,000 crore (up 3.5% QoQ) and EBITDA of INR 27,700 crore (margin 51.3%, up 30bps QoQ). India mobile revenue growth decelerated to below 10% YoY, with ARPU at INR 259, driven by premiumization and 4.4M revenue-earning customer adds. Broadband posted record net adds of 1.2M, crossing 13M connected homes. Management emphasized continued ARPU growth through upgrades and international roaming in the absence of tariff repair. CapEx was INR 11,800 crore, with stepped-up investment in data centers (targeting 1GW capacity in 3-4 years) and fiber. The balance sheet strengthened with net debt/EBITDA at 1.02. Risks include AGR liability uncertainty and potential slowdown in wireless market growth.
भारती एयरटेल की तीसरी तिमाही (अक्टूबर-दिसंबर 2025) की कमाई स्थिर रही। कंपनी ने कुल 54,000 करोड़ रुपये कमाए, जो पिछली तिमाही से 3.5% ज्यादा है। कमाई पर खर्च घटाने के बाद बचत (EBITDA) 27,700 करोड़ रुपये रही, यानी हर 100 रुपये कमाई पर 51.3 रुपये बचत। मोबाइल सेवा से कमाई पिछले साल से 10% से कम बढ़ी। हर ग्राहक से औसत कमाई (ARPU) 259 रुपये हुई, जो प्रीमियम पैकेज और नए 44 लाख ग्राहक जुड़ने से बढ़ी। ब्रॉडबैंड में 12 लाख नए ग्राहक जुड़े, कुल 1.3 करोड़ घरों तक पहुंच। कंपनी ने कहा कि टैरिफ बढ़ाने के बजाय अपग्रेड और अंतरराष्ट्रीय रोमिंग से ARPU बढ़ाएगी। निवेश (CapEx) 11,800 करोड़ रुपये रहा, जिसमें डेटा सेंटर और फाइबर पर जोर है। कर्ज कम हुआ, अब कमाई का सिर्फ 1.02 गुना है। जोखिम: सरकार को एजीआर बकाया और मोबाइल बाजार की धीमी ग्रोथ।
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ARPU
INR 259
+?% YoY
ARPU improved sequentially due to portfolio premiumization and customer upgrades.
Broadband net adds
1.2M
Record high
Highest-ever quarterly net adds, driven by FWA and fiber expansion.
5G population coverage
74%
+?pp YoY
5G coverage expanded with 11,000 new sites added in the quarter.
FWA customer base
3M
+?% QoQ
FWA base crossed 3 million, expanding addressable market for broadband.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Continued ARPU growth without tariff repair
Management expects to drive ARPU through feature-to-smartphone upgrades, prepaid-to-postpaid, data monetization, and international roaming.
NEW
Step-up in fiber home passes to 2M per quarter
Airtel is rolling out 2 million fiber home passes per quarter to support broadband growth.
UPDATED
Data center capacity target of 1GW in 3-4 years
Airtel plans to scale data center capacity from ~130MW to 1GW, targeting ~25% market share.
DROPPED
Home broadband industry to reach 100 million homes in 5-6 years
Management expects the home broadband market to grow from ~50 million to 100 million connected homes over the medium term, with Airtel investing aggressively to capture share.
DROPPED
Capex to moderate directionally over time
While near-term capex may be elevated due to home broadband and data center investments, management expects a directional decline in capex as a percentage of revenue over the medium term.
NEW RISK
AGR liability uncertainty
Airtel has written to DoT seeking parity on AGR dues treatment but has not received a response, creating cash flow uncertainty.
NEW RISK
Wireless revenue growth deceleration
India mobile revenue growth fell below 10% YoY for the first time in years, with market growth averaging ~6%.
NEW RISK
Capital allocation and leverage concerns
With strong free cash flow and low leverage, management has not outlined clear plans for excess capital beyond data centers and cloud.
RISK GONE
Elevated capex from home broadband and data centers
Accelerated home pass rollout and data center investments could keep capex elevated, potentially impacting free cash flow and leverage targets.
RISK GONE
Competitive intensity in customer acquisition
Management noted that quality of acquisition has deteriorated due to high commissions and churn, which could pressure ARPU and margins if not managed.
RISK GONE
Data center overcapacity risk
Analyst raised concern about multiple data center announcements potentially leading to oversupply; management acknowledged but expressed confidence in demand.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q1 FY26, Q2 FY26
Management noted that quality of acquisition has deteriorated due to high commissions and churn, which could pressure ARPU and margins if not managed.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q3 FY25, Q4 FY25
Management guided that total CapEx will trend downwards in FY26, driven by substantially lower rural rollout and moderation in radio CapEx.
Mentioned in Q2 FY26, Q4 FY25
Airtel aims to scale Nextra's capacity to over 1 GW in the next few years, a four-fold increase from current operating capacity, driven by the Google partnership and organic expansion.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q2 FY25
Management expects the full impact of the recent tariff increase to be reflected in the coming quarters, with normalization of customer trends already seen in October.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Airtel plans to scale data center capacity from ~130MW to 1GW, targeting ~25% market share.
Airtel has written to DoT seeking parity on AGR dues treatment but has not received a response, creating cash flow uncertainty.
View Risks →