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BANKBARODA Diversified 01 Apr 2025

Bank of Baroda — Q4 FY25

Bank of Baroda reported a stable Q4 FY25 with PAT of INR 5,048 crore, contributing to a record full-year PAT of INR 19,581 crore.

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Bank of Baroda reported a stable Q4 FY25 with PAT of INR 5,048 crore, contributing to a record full-year PAT of INR 19,581 crore. Domestic advances grew 13.7% YoY, driven by retail (19.4%) and agri/MSME (14.2%), while corporate growth moderated to 8.6%. Global NIM declined to 3.02% (domestic 3.18%) due to elevated deposit costs and repo rate cuts, with Q1 FY26 expected to remain under pressure before recovering in H2. Asset quality improved further: GNPA fell to 2.26% and net NPA to 0.58%, with slippage ratio at 1% and credit cost at 0.47%—well below guidance. Management refrained from giving full-year NIM guidance, citing an inflection point in rates and liquidity. Key risks include margin compression from lagging deposit repricing and potential stress in MSME slippages, though overall asset quality remains robust.

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NIM compression from lagging deposit repricing

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Quarter Snapshot

Domestic Advances Growth 13.7%
+13.7% YoY

Domestic loan book grew 13.7% YoY, driven by retail (19.4%) and agri/MSME (14.2%).

Global NIM 3.02%
-8bps YoY

Full-year global NIM declined to 3.02% from 3.10% due to elevated deposit costs and repo rate cuts.

Gross NPA Ratio 2.26%
-66bps YoY

GNPA improved to 2.26%, the best in 13 years, with unidirectional downward trend for 12 quarters.

CASA Ratio 39.97%
+0.6pp YoY

CASA ratio remained strong at 39.97%, with retail CASA growing 5% YoY despite tight liquidity.

What Changed vs Last Quarter

Comparing Q4 FY25 vs Q3 FY25
2 new guidance2 dropped4 new risk4 risk resolved
NEW
NIM expected to be flat YoY in FY26

Management expects full-year NIM to be similar to FY25, with Q1 under pressure and recovery from Q2 onwards.

NEW
Slippage ratio guidance of 1-1.25% for FY26

Slippage ratio guidance maintained at 1-1.25%, with actuals trending well below this range.

UPDATED
Loan growth guidance of 11-13% for FY26

Management maintained loan growth guidance of 11-13% for FY26, with potential upside if liquidity improves.

UPDATED
Deposit growth guidance of 9-11% for FY26

Deposit growth guidance maintained at 9-11%, with focus on reducing bulk deposit dependency.

DROPPED
Full-year NIM guidance revised to 3.00-3.10%

Management guided NIM for FY25 at 3.05% ± 5 bps (3.00-3.10%), with an upside bias due to potential rate cuts and improved liquidity.

DROPPED
Credit cost guidance maintained below 0.75%

Management maintained credit cost guidance of less than 0.75% for FY25, despite 9M credit cost of 0.47%.

NEW RISK
NIM compression from lagging deposit repricing

Deposit costs are slow to reprice downward, pressuring NIM in Q1 FY26 before expected recovery in H2.

NEW RISK
MSME slippage uptick

MSME slippages increased by INR 300-500 crore in Q4, though management attributes it to legacy accounts and remains confident in overall asset quality.

NEW RISK
International NIM decline

International NIM fell to 1.97% from over 2% due to repricing of assets in a lower rate environment, impacting global NIM given the large international book.

NEW RISK
Pension amortization overhang

The bank continues to amortize pension liabilities (INR 290 crore remaining), unlike peers who have fully written off, creating a future earnings drag.

RISK GONE
Elevated CD ratio and tight liquidity

CD ratio at 84.24% and tight liquidity conditions could pressure margins if deposit costs remain high.

RISK GONE
Rising personal loan NPAs

Personal loan GNPA rose to 3.9% from 3.16% QoQ, though management downplayed it as small in absolute terms.

RISK GONE
Potential regulatory changes in gold loans

RBI discussions on collateral-free agri loans and stricter gold loan norms could impact business, but management declined to comment.

RISK GONE
Margin pressure from one-off recovery normalization

Q2 had a one-off recovery of ~₹350 crore boosting interest income; its absence in Q3 contributed to margin decline.

🤫 Topics management stopped discussing

Credit cost guidance maintained below 0.75%

Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q2 FY25, Q3 FY25

Management maintained credit cost guidance of less than 0.75% for FY25, despite 9M credit cost of 0.47%.

Full-year NIM guidance revised to 3.00-3.10%

Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q2 FY25, Q3 FY25

Management guided NIM for FY25 at 3.05% ± 5 bps (3.00-3.10%), with an upside bias due to potential rate cuts and improved liquidity.

Margin pressure from one-off recovery normalization

Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q3 FY25

Q2 had a one-off recovery of ~₹350 crore boosting interest income; its absence in Q3 contributed to margin decline.

Fast read

Guidance and risk preview

Top guidance Loan growth guidance of 11-13% for FY26

Management maintained loan growth guidance of 11-13% for FY26, with potential upside if liquidity improves.

Top risk NIM compression from lagging deposit repricing

Deposit costs are slow to reprice downward, pressuring NIM in Q1 FY26 before expected recovery in H2.

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