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AUBANK Diversified 24 Jul 2024

AU Small Finance Bank Limited — Q1 FY25

AU Small Finance Bank reported a steady Q1 FY25, with the board approving a universal bank application.

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AU Small Finance Bank reported a steady Q1 FY25, with the board approving a universal bank application. The bank maintained a cautious deposit strategy, keeping the book flat at INR 97,290 crore to optimize costs, resulting in a 7 bps reduction in cost of funds to 7.03%. Disbursements reached 20% of the INR 60,000+ crore annual target, with yields improving to 15.8%, up 250 bps QoQ. Asset quality remained stable, with annualized credit cost at 1.28%, within the guided 1.10-1.15% range for the year. Management reiterated FY25 ROA guidance of 1.6%, though margin pressure from deposit repricing is expected. Key risks include rising competition in deposits and potential stress in microfinance, where a 3% credit cost provision is being built. The universal bank license could enhance brand trust and deposit franchise, but near-term cost of funds may rise by 35-40 bps.

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Deposit cost pressure from competition

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Quarter Snapshot

Disbursement Yield 15.8%
+250bps QoQ

Yield on new disbursements improved significantly due to focus on high-yield assets and reduced competition.

CASA Ratio 32.9%
+1.8% vs March 2024 pro forma

CASA deposits grew to INR 32,034 crore, aided by strategic deposit mix optimization.

Credit Card Issuance 75,000
Calibrated down

Card issuance was deliberately reduced to improve underwriting quality amid industry stress.

Microfinance Provision Coverage 93%
N/A

Provision coverage on microfinance GNPA is high, with additional 3% annual credit cost being built.

What Changed vs Last Quarter

Comparing Q1 FY25 vs Q4 FY24
3 new guidance3 dropped4 new risk4 risk resolved
NEW
Deposit growth target of 25% for FY25

Management aims to grow deposits by 25% this fiscal, with INR 25,000 crore incremental deposits needed over the next nine months.

NEW
Full-year ROA guidance of 1.6%

Management reiterated ROA guidance of 1.6% for FY25, with potential upside if deposit costs remain favorable.

NEW
Cost-to-income ratio around 61-62% for FY25

Management expects cost-to-income ratio to be around 61-62% for the full year, with Q1 being seasonally lower.

UPDATED
Credit cost guidance of 1.10-1.15% on advances

Annualized credit cost expected to be in the guided range of 1.10-1.15%, including 3% provision on microfinance book.

DROPPED
Balance sheet growth of ~25% annually over next 3 years

Management expects to grow the balance sheet by around 25% per annum over the next three years, consistent with historical growth rates.

DROPPED
Defend 1.6% ROA in FY25

The bank aims to defend a return on assets of 1.6% in FY25, despite cost of funds expected to rise by 40-45 bps, by leveraging the Fincare merger and shifting to high-yield assets.

DROPPED
Credit card issuance moderated to ~600,000 cards per year

Credit card issuance will be moderated to around 600,000 cards per year, similar to FY24 levels, to control upfront acquisition costs.

NEW RISK
Deposit cost pressure from competition

Intense competition for deposits, especially from mid-sized banks, could push cost of funds higher than guided 35-40 bps increase.

NEW RISK
Microfinance asset quality stress

Collection efficiency in microfinance has dipped due to heatwave and elections, with over-leverage concerns in the sector.

NEW RISK
Credit card delinquency trends

Industry-wide stress in unsecured lending could impact credit card portfolio, though management has tightened underwriting.

NEW RISK
Universal bank license timeline uncertainty

The application process and approval timeline for universal bank license are uncertain, with no specific guidance provided.

RISK GONE
NIM pressure from rising cost of funds

Management expects cost of funds to increase by 40-45 bps in FY25, which could compress NIMs further if not offset by yield improvements.

RISK GONE
Credit card profitability uncertain

Credit card business is not expected to be profitable for at least two years, with high credit costs (~6-6.5%) and potential regulatory changes adding uncertainty.

RISK GONE
Regulatory risk on microfinance pricing

An analyst raised the possibility of RBI imposing a yield cap on microfinance loans, which could impact the bank's strategy to grow MFI to 10% of the book.

RISK GONE
Integration execution risk from Fincare merger

The merger with Fincare adds complexity; integration of systems, cultures, and branches must be seamless to realize synergies and avoid disruption.

🤫 Topics management stopped discussing

Credit card business to break even by FY25

Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q3 FY24

Management expects credit card business to break even by the last quarter of FY25, as the book seasons and term book builds.

Credit cost to remain similar to FY23

Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24

Full-year cost-to-income ratio expected to land similar to last financial year, despite investments.

Integration execution risk from Fincare merger

Mentioned in Q2 FY24, Q4 FY24

The merger with Fincare adds complexity; integration of systems, cultures, and branches must be seamless to realize synergies and avoid disruption.

NIM for FY24 at lower end of 5.5%

Mentioned in Q2 FY24, Q3 FY24

Management guided that full-year NIM will be at the lower end of 5.5%, considering cost of funds pressure and securitization income recognition.

Fast read

Guidance and risk preview

Top guidance Deposit growth target of 25% for FY25

Management aims to grow deposits by 25% this fiscal, with INR 25,000 crore incremental deposits needed over the next nine months.

Top risk Deposit cost pressure from competition

Intense competition for deposits, especially from mid-sized banks, could push cost of funds higher than guided 35-40 bps increase.

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