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View Promises →APL Apollo Tubes Limited — Q3 FY26
APL Apollo delivered a strong Q3 FY26 with record monthly volume of 375,000 tons in December, implying an annualized run rate of 4.4 million tons.
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APL Apollo delivered a strong Q3 FY26 with record monthly volume of 375,000 tons in December, implying an annualized run rate of 4.4 million tons. The company upgraded its volume growth guidance to 20% for Q4 FY26 and FY27, with EBITDA per ton guidance raised to ₹5,500 (from ₹4,800-5,000). The dual-brand strategy (APL Apollo premium + SG brand) is driving market share gains, with APL Apollo maintaining a 65% market share in structural steel tubes. Management outlined a capex plan of ₹1,500 crore to expand capacity from 5 million to 8 million tons by FY28, funded through internal accruals. The company expects RoCE to improve to 40% in FY27. Key risks include potential sharp commodity price swings and execution delays in greenfield expansions.
एपीएल अपोलो ने तीसरी तिमाही में शानदार प्रदर्शन किया। दिसंबर में 3,75,000 टन बिक्री का रिकॉर्ड बना, जो सालाना 44 लाख टन के बराबर है। कंपनी ने अगली तिमाही और अगले साल के लिए बिक्री वृद्धि अनुमान 20% कर दिया है। हर टन पर कमाई का अनुमान भी ₹5,500 (पहले ₹4,800-5,000) किया गया। दो ब्रांडों (एपीएल अपोलो प्रीमियम + एसजी ब्रांड) की रणनीति से बाजार हिस्सेदारी बढ़ रही है। स्टील पाइप में 65% हिस्सेदारी है। कंपनी 2028 तक उत्पादन क्षमता 50 लाख से बढ़ाकर 80 लाख टन करने के लिए ₹1,500 करोड़ निवेश करेगी, जो अपने मुनाफे से होगा। अगले साल निवेश पर रिटर्न 40% होने की उम्मीद है। जोखिम: कीमतों में तेज उतार-चढ़ाव और नए कारखानों के निर्माण में देरी।
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Sharp commodity price swings
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Read Transcript →Quarter Snapshot
Monthly Volume (Dec)
375,000 tons
+50% YoY
Record monthly volume, implying annualized run rate of 4.4 million tons.
Market Share
65%
+25pp vs pre-COVID
Structural steel tube market share maintained above 60% for four years.
Capacity Target FY28
8 million tons
+60% vs current
Expansion from 5 million tons via greenfield and debottlenecking.
SG Brand Volume (Q3)
60,000-70,000 tons
New launch
Low-cost brand contributed ~60-70k tons in Q3, EBITDA/ton ₹1,500-2,000.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
EBITDA per ton guidance raised to ₹5,500
EBITDA per ton target increased from ₹4,800-5,000 to ₹5,500, driven by cost controls and mix improvement.
NEW
Capacity expansion to 8 million tons by FY28
Capex of ₹1,500 crore to add 3 million tons capacity (2 million greenfield/brownfield, 1 million debottlenecking) by FY28.
NEW
RoCE target of 40% in FY27
Return on capital employed expected to improve to ~40% in FY27 from current 33%.
UPDATED
Volume growth 20% for Q4 FY26 and FY27
Management upgraded volume growth guidance to 20% for Q4 FY26 and full year FY27 over FY26.
DROPPED
FY26 EBITDA spread of 4,600-5,000 rupees per ton
Annual EBITDA per ton guidance maintained at 4,600-5,000 rupees, despite Q2 achieving 5,200 rupees.
DROPPED
Q3 FY26 volume target of 900,000 tons
Management targets monthly volume of 270,000-275,000 tons in October, implying Q3 volume of ~900,000 tons.
DROPPED
Capex of 1,500 crore fully funded internally
Capacity expansion of 1.5 million tons over 2-3 years will be entirely funded through internal cash flows.
NEW RISK
Sharp commodity price swings
A sudden 10%+ move in HRC prices could temporarily impact margins before pass-through, though management notes this is rare.
NEW RISK
Execution risk in greenfield expansions
Four greenfield plants and debottlenecking require timely execution; delays could impact volume growth targets.
NEW RISK
Market share sustainability at 65%
Competitors are also adding capacity; maintaining 65% share may become challenging as the market grows.
RISK GONE
Weak government capex and demand slowdown
Management acknowledged that demand is 'very bad' due to weak government spending and extended monsoons, which could pressure volumes.
RISK GONE
Steel price volatility and inventory losses
Steel prices fell 5,000 rupees per ton in Q2, causing minor inventory losses; further declines could impact margins.
RISK GONE
Competition from new primary steel capacity
Analyst raised concern about 1 million tons of new capacity from competitors; management downplayed but did not quantify impact.
RISK GONE
Execution risk in new capacity expansion
Planned capacity addition of 1.5 million tons in new geographies (East India, Dubai) may face ramp-up challenges.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Management upgraded volume growth guidance to 20% for Q4 FY26 and full year FY27 over FY26.
A sudden 10%+ move in HRC prices could temporarily impact margins before pass-through, though management notes this is rare.
View Risks →