Adani Power vs HPCL Q4 FY26

AD

Adani Power

Q4 FY26 · Energy

Adani Power reported a strong Q4 FY26 with EBITDA of ₹6,498 crore, up 27% YoY, driven by higher PPA tariffs, cost discipline, and improved operating efficiency. PAT surged 64% YoY to ₹4,700 crore, aided by lower tax charges. Full-year PAT stood at ₹12,971 crore, demonstrating earnings resilience despite subdued merchant prices. The company has tied up 95% of its 18.15 GW operating capacity under long/medium-term PPAs, reducing merchant exposure to 5%. Capacity expansion is on track: Korba Phase 2 (1.32 GW) to commission in Q2 FY27, Mahan (1.6 GW) by Q4 FY27/Q1 FY28. Management guided for EBITDA to reach ₹50,000 crore by FY30-31. Key risk: merchant prices could decline further as renewable penetration increases, impacting residual open capacity.

Guidance read

Korba Phase 2 commissioning in Q2 FY27: The 1.32 GW Korba Phase 2 project is expected to commission between June and September 2026. Mahan commissioning by Q4 FY27/Q1 FY28: First unit of Mahan (1.6 GW) likely by end of FY27, second unit six months later. Capex of ₹25,000 cr in FY27 and ₹33,000 cr in FY28: Capital expenditure for capacity expansion estimated at ₹25,000 crore in FY27 and ₹33,000 crore in FY28. EBITDA target of ₹50,000 crore by FY30-31: Management expects EBITDA to reach ₹50,000 crore by 2030-31, driven by capacity expansion and new PPAs.

Risk read

Key risks include Merchant price decline due to renewable addition — Management acknowledged that increasing renewable capacity could suppress merchant power prices, impacting residual open capacity.; Geopolitical impact on project timelines — Analyst raised concern about Mahan delay; management cited geopolitical issues affecting labor and LTG availability, pushing commissioning to FY28.; Bangladesh receivable dispute — Outstanding from Bangladesh Power Development Board has reduced, but a disputed amount is under expert determination; potential escalation to international arbitration..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

HI

HPCL

Q4 FY26 · Energy

HPCL delivered a strong Q4 FY26 with standalone PAT of ₹4,901 crore (+46% YoY), driven by robust Jan-Feb momentum and lagged crude benefits in March. Full-year standalone PAT of ₹17,175 crore (133% YoY) was 17% above the previous best. Key drivers included cost savings of ₹1,691 crore under the Samriddhi program, tight working capital management reducing debt by ₹15,724 crore to ₹47,599 crore, and lower interest costs. The Barmer refinery (HRRL) commissioning was delayed by a minor fire but is expected to achieve COD shortly, with ramp-up to 60% capacity in June. The new RFCC unit at Mumbai refinery is stabilizing after catalyst clogging issues. However, Q1 FY27 is expected to be very tough due to high crude prices and product price caps, with management acknowledging losses but declining to quantify. The key risk is prolonged geopolitical turmoil further squeezing margins and delaying the recovery of marketing losses.

Guidance read

Barmer refinery COD in Q1 FY27: Expect to achieve COD shortly, operate at 60% capacity in June, full ramp-up from Q2. RFCC unit full ramp-up in 1-2 months: After catalyst clogging, unit is back on stream; full benefits expected from end of Q1 or Q2. Q1 FY27 expected to be loss-making: Management guided that Q1 will be very tough with losses due to high crude and low product prices. Capex flexibility in FY27: Projected capex slightly lower than FY26; discretionary spends deferred; committed capex continues.

Risk read

Key risks include Prolonged geopolitical crisis — Continued supply disruptions and high crude prices could deepen losses and delay recovery.; LPG under-recoveries escalating — LPG loss per cylinder rose from ₹84 in Q4 to ₹170 in April and ₹670 in May, straining finances.; Barmer refinery startup delays — Fire incident on April 20 delayed commissioning; any further setbacks could impact self-sufficiency.; No forward guidance on losses — Management declined to quantify daily loss rate, leaving uncertainty for investors..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.