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Adani Power Ltd — Q4 FY26
Adani Power reported a strong Q4 FY26 with EBITDA of ₹6,498 crore, up 27% YoY, driven by higher PPA tariffs, cost discipline, and improved operating efficiency.
bullish
high
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Adani Power reported a strong Q4 FY26 with EBITDA of ₹6,498 crore, up 27% YoY, driven by higher PPA tariffs, cost discipline, and improved operating efficiency. PAT surged 64% YoY to ₹4,700 crore, aided by lower tax charges. Full-year PAT stood at ₹12,971 crore, demonstrating earnings resilience despite subdued merchant prices. The company has tied up 95% of its 18.15 GW operating capacity under long/medium-term PPAs, reducing merchant exposure to 5%. Capacity expansion is on track: Korba Phase 2 (1.32 GW) to commission in Q2 FY27, Mahan (1.6 GW) by Q4 FY27/Q1 FY28. Management guided for EBITDA to reach ₹50,000 crore by FY30-31. Key risk: merchant prices could decline further as renewable penetration increases, impacting residual open capacity.
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Merchant price decline due to renewable addition
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Power Sales Volume (Q4)
27.2 BU
+3.4% YoY
Quarterly power sales reached 27.2 billion units, supported by higher operating capacity and stable plant availability.
Plant Load Factor (Q4)
74%
Flat YoY
PLF for Q4 was 74%, reflecting healthy utilization despite weather-induced demand volatility.
Capacity Tied Up Under PPAs
95%
+11pp YoY
95% of operating capacity (18.15 GW) is now under long/medium-term PPAs, up from 84% last year.
Expansion Capacity Tied Up
13.3 GW
+2.9 GW YoY
Long-term PPAs tied for 13.3 GW of the 23.7 GW expansion pipeline, ensuring revenue visibility.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Mahan commissioning by Q4 FY27/Q1 FY28
First unit of Mahan (1.6 GW) likely by end of FY27, second unit six months later.
NEW
Capex of ₹25,000 cr in FY27 and ₹33,000 cr in FY28
Capital expenditure for capacity expansion estimated at ₹25,000 crore in FY27 and ₹33,000 crore in FY28.
NEW
EBITDA target of ₹50,000 crore by FY30-31
Management expects EBITDA to reach ₹50,000 crore by 2030-31, driven by capacity expansion and new PPAs.
UPDATED
Korba Phase 2 commissioning in Q2 FY27
The 1.32 GW Korba Phase 2 project is expected to commission between June and September 2026.
DROPPED
Capacity expansion of 23.7 GW by FY32
Planned addition of 23.7 GW thermal capacity, with 2.9 GW commissioning next fiscal, 2.4 GW in FY28, 2.4 GW in FY29, 8 GW in FY30, 5.6 GW in FY31, and 2.4 GW in FY32.
DROPPED
Reduce open capacity to 3-4% over 6-7 years
Management targets reducing merchant exposure from current 10% to 3-4% over the medium term by signing more long-term PPAs.
NEW RISK
Geopolitical impact on project timelines
Analyst raised concern about Mahan delay; management cited geopolitical issues affecting labor and LTG availability, pushing commissioning to FY28.
NEW RISK
Bangladesh receivable dispute
Outstanding from Bangladesh Power Development Board has reduced, but a disputed amount is under expert determination; potential escalation to international arbitration.
RISK GONE
Rajasthan PPA regulatory hurdle
Regulator questioned the need for full 3,200 MW PPA; DISCOM has been allowed to re-present its case, causing potential delays.
RISK GONE
Bangladesh geopolitical risk
Continued supply to Bangladesh amid political turmoil; though payments are regular, any escalation could impact Godda plant operations.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q1 FY26, Q2 FY25, Q3 FY26, Q4 FY25
Planned addition of 23.7 GW thermal capacity, with 2.9 GW commissioning next fiscal, 2.4 GW in FY28, 2.4 GW in FY29, 8 GW in FY30, 5.6 GW in FY31, and 2.4 GW in FY32.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q1 FY26, Q2 FY25, Q4 FY25
Merchant realizations fell 14.3% YoY due to early monsoon and weak demand; further weakness could impact earnings.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q2 FY25, Q3 FY25
Outstanding from Bangladesh is ~INR 800 crore, with ~INR 100 crore pending reconciliation due to formula interpretation issues.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q2 FY25
Management aims to secure long-term PPAs for 80% of new capacity, keeping 20% for merchant sales to balance risk and reward.
Mentioned in Q2 FY26, Q4 FY25
Massive capex of INR 2 lakh crore and tight timelines (2032) pose execution and funding risks, though management cites pre-ordered equipment and brownfield advantages.
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Guidance and risk preview
The 1.32 GW Korba Phase 2 project is expected to commission between June and September 2026.
Management acknowledged that increasing renewable capacity could suppress merchant power prices, impacting residual open capacity.
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