Adani Ports Management Guidance Tracker

Management maintained the full-year cargo volume guidance of 370-390 MMT, despite Q1 achieving 101.4 MMT, citing prudence and potential for revision in Q3.

With record cargo of 240 MMT in first seven months, APSEZ is well positioned to achieve full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance on the higher end.

Revenue from operations is expected to be in the range of INR 29,000-31,000 crore for FY25.

Management raised FY25 EBITDA guidance from ₹17,000-18,000 crore to ₹18,800-18,900 crore, driven by strong execution and diversification.

Management guided FY26 revenue in the range of INR 36,000-38,000 crore, implying 12-18% growth over FY25.

Management reaffirmed the full-year EBITDA target despite Q1 volume headwinds, citing recovery in July and diversified revenue streams.

Management reiterated the full-year EBITDA guidance range despite strong H1 performance, indicating confidence in sustained momentum.

Full-year EBITDA guidance increased by INR 800 crore to INR 22,800 crore, including one quarter of NQXT contribution (INR 300 crore EBITDA).

Management guided for FY27 revenue growth of 11-16%, assuming conservative assumptions amid West Asia disruptions.

CapEx for FY24 remains within the guided range of INR 4,500-5,000 crore, with no changes announced.

Capital expenditure is planned at INR 10,500-11,500 crore, with INR 7,300 crore for ports, INR 2,300 crore for logistics, INR 1,500 crore for renewable energy, and INR 400 crore for marine services.

Breakdown: ports INR 7,300 cr, marine services INR 400 cr, logistics INR 2,300 cr, renewables INR 1,500 cr.

Management announced the next expansion phase of Vizhinjam port with a planned investment of INR 20,000 crore.

Capex of INR 10,000-12,000 crore planned, primarily for container terminal expansion and logistics.

Investments in container berths at Mundra, Hazira, Gangavaram, Vizhinjam, and Colombo are underway to capture containerized trade growth.

Capex will be deployed across ports (₹45,000-50,000 crore), logistics, and marine, with focus on container capacity and evacuation infrastructure.

INR 16,000 crore capex for Vizhinjam Phase II, increasing total capacity to 5.7M TEUs, with cash flows spread from FY2026 to FY2030.

Capex guided at ₹12,000-14,000 crore for FY27, accelerated for Mundra CT5, Dhamra expansion, and Vizhinjam phase two.

Phase 1 of Vizhinjam transshipment port is expected to be commissioned by March 2024, with first cranes arriving in October 2023.

Phase 1 of Colombo Port expected to be commissioned and operationalized by December 2024.

Management plans to increase the logistics rake fleet from 115 to 300 by FY28, driven by GPWIS and container growth.

Nameplate capacity of 1 million TEUs, expandable to 1.5 million, with full utilization expected in FY26.

Haifa Port is expected to handle 12-14 million tons of cargo by the end of FY24, with union negotiations for cost reduction targeted for completion by December 2023.

Management reiterated that the 500 MMT volume guidance by FY25 is on track.

Management revised full-year volume guidance upward from 370-390 MMT to over 400 MMT, citing strong demand.

Management guided that logistics ROIC, currently ~6%, should converge with company-level ROIC within three years as assets ramp up.

Management expects cargo volumes to increase to 460-480 million metric tons in FY25, implying 10-14% YoY growth.

Management reaffirmed full-year cargo volume target, supported by strong Q1 performance and ramp-up of new assets.

Management reiterated full-year cargo volume guidance of 460-480 million metric tons, confident in H2 recovery from agro/fertilizer season and new asset contributions.

CFO indicated FY26 EBITDA growth in the region of 20%±, though formal guidance will be given in Q4 results.

Logistics EBITDA contribution is expected to first reach 5% and eventually 10% of total company EBITDA.

Marine services revenue expected to cross INR 3,300 crore by FY27, driven by fleet expansion and long-term contracts.

Long-term volume target remains unchanged, with international ports expected to contribute 115 million MT.

Management reiterated the five-year plan targets, with revenue of INR 65,500 crore and EBITDA of INR 36,500 crore by FY2029.

Management guided that coal's share of total cargo will decline to 20-22% over five years, driven by container and oil & gas growth.

Target to handle 1 billion tonnes of cargo by FY31, including 850 million tonnes domestic, with 20% ROCE.

Management targets leverage of around 2.5x and cash balance of INR 8,000 crore by year-end.

Management guided net debt to EBITDA in the range of 2.2-2.5x at end-FY25, factoring in acquisitions and H2 capex.

Management reiterated net debt to EBITDA ceiling of 2.5x, with flexibility for strategic M&A up to ~3.2x.

Management expects logistics EBITDA margins to improve to ~50% as agri silo capacity scales to 4 MMT by FY26.

EBITDA is expected to be between INR 17,000-18,000 crore for FY25.

Current EBITDA margin of 38-42% expected to improve to benchmark levels through operational efficiencies.

Based on H1 momentum, management expects to hit the upper end of the FY25 EBITDA guidance range.

Management expects international port EBITDA margins to improve to 30% within two years, driven by operational efficiencies.

EBITDA guided at INR 21,000-22,000 crore for FY26, with margin expansion expected.

Management expects logistics margins to creep up to 35-40% as the business mix shifts toward asset-light segments.

Long-term target for stabilized international port margins, with Colombo at ~50%, Haifa 30-40%, and Australia ~65%.

Management expects domestic port EBITDA margins to remain in the 75-77% range over the long term, driven by operating efficiencies.