Adani Green Energy FY25 Annual Earnings Summary
4 quarters covered · ₹11,212 Cr revenue · ₹2,001 Cr PAT · 79.3% average EBITDA margin.
Quarter-by-quarter progression
Management promises made during the year
Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q3 FY25Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q4 FY25Risks flagged during the year
Delays in grid connectivity by CTU/PGCIL have shifted some projects to the right. Management is coordinating closely but this remains a key risk for future capacity additions.
Q1 FY25 · mediumQ1 solar merchant realization was ~INR 4/unit, below the guided INR 4-4.5, due to seasonal softening.
Q1 FY25 · mediumPumped storage CapEx is INR 4.5-5 crore/MW, but equipment is imported and supplier details undisclosed, posing supply chain risk.
Q2 FY25 · mediumWhile management claims de-risking for 50 GW, analysts questioned evacuation readiness for 7-8 GW; management acknowledged reliance on sister company and Power Grid projects.
Q2 FY25 · mediumMinority interest increased sequentially from INR 182 crore to INR 239 crore, impacting PAT attributable to shareholders, which fell from INR 372 crore to INR 276 crore YoY.
Q2 FY25 · mediumMerchant realizations for solar were subdued in Q2 (INR 2.59/kWh) due to high hydropower availability; recovery expected but not guaranteed.
Q3 FY25 · mediumUpcoming ALMM norms and restrictions on solar cell imports may increase costs by $0.02-$0.03 per watt initially. Management has secured supply agreements but cost impact is uncertain.
Q3 FY25 · mediumAnalyst questioned backup plans if domestic bank refinancing fails. Management cited advanced discussions and multiple options, but any delay could impact liquidity.
Q3 FY25 · mediumDISCOMs are hesitant to sign PPAs due to existing backlog. Management expects RPO obligations to drive demand, but near-term PPA signing may remain slow.
Q4 FY25 · mediumThe ongoing DOJ and SEC cases against individuals (not the company) remain unresolved; management provided no update on hearings or progress.
Q4 FY25 · mediumScaling Khavda to 30 GW by 2029 involves significant execution challenges; any delays could impact capacity addition targets.
Q4 FY25 · mediumWhile equity is funded, debt for the full 50 GW target is not yet tied up; management only has visibility for 1-1.5 years.
What changed through the year
Q1 FY25 · 6 GW capacity addition in FY25
Management guided for 6 GW of new capacity in FY25, including ~700 MW of wind.
Q1 FY25 · 50 GW target by 2030
Reiterated 50 GW capacity target by 2030, including 5 GW of pumped storage.
Q1 FY25 · Portfolio borrowing cost to decline from 9.4%
CFO expects average portfolio interest rate to come down significantly from 9.4%, with new borrowings at 8.6%-8.9%.
Q1 FY25 · 15% merchant/C&I portfolio mix
Targeting 15% of portfolio from merchant and C&I sales by 2030.
Q2 FY25 · 6 GW capacity addition in FY25
Management committed to adding 6 GW of renewable capacity in FY25, with one-third expected in Q3 and remainder by year-end.
Q2 FY25 · Run-rate EBITDA of INR 16,000 crore post 6 GW addition
After adding 6 GW, the company expects a run-rate EBITDA in excess of INR 16,000 crore on an installed base of 17 GW.
Q2 FY25 · Minimum 6 GW annual run-rate going forward
Beyond FY25, the company plans a minimum run-rate of 6 GW per year for capacity additions.
Q2 FY25 · Google data center PPA commissioning in CY Q3 2025
The 61 MW PPA with Google is expected to start supplying power in calendar Q3 2025.
Q3 FY25 · FY25 capacity addition target of 5 GW
Company expects to add approximately 5 GW of new capacity in FY25, with 4.3 GW coming in Q4. Remaining ~1 GW delayed by 4-5 weeks into early Q1 FY26 due to monsoon and regulatory changes.
Q3 FY25 · 50 GW target by 2030 maintained
Management reiterated the long-term strategic objective of reaching 50 GW operational capacity by 2030, with 85% long-term PPAs and 15% merchant/CNI.
Q3 FY25 · Next year capacity addition in 6-8 GW range
Management confirmed the guidance for next year's capacity addition remains in the 6-8 GW range, with plans to ramp up run rate.
Q3 FY25 · Run-rate EBITDA of ₹15,000 crore+ post FY25 additions
CFO indicated that after adding 5 GW in FY25, the run-rate EBITDA would exceed ₹15,000 crore.
Q4 FY25 · 5 GW capacity addition in FY26
Management targets adding 5 GW of operational capacity in FY2026, with a total CapEx of INR 31,000 crore.
Q4 FY25 · 50 GW target by 2030 fully equity-funded
Post full conversion of warrants, equity funding for the 50 GW target is fully secured; debt funding is being arranged progressively.
Q4 FY25 · Chitravathi PSP commissioning by September 2027
The 500 MW pumped storage plant at Chitravathi is expected to be commissioned by September 2027.