UPL vs Lupin Q4 FY26

UP

UPL

Q4 FY26 · Other

UPL delivered a strong FY26 with revenue up 11% to ₹52,000 crore and EBITDA up 18%, driven by volume-led growth across all regions and platforms. Contribution margin expanded 220bps to 31.5% in crop protection, while net debt/EBITDA fell to 1.6x from 2.1x. The company provided a Q1 FY27 guidance of 10-14% revenue growth and 14-18% EBITDA growth, citing cautious optimism despite Middle East supply disruptions. A key risk is the elevated ECL provision of ₹350 crore in Q4, reflecting credit stress in Latin America. Management also announced a reorganization to unlock value in Advanta and Superform, though some investors raised concerns about shareholder dilution.

Guidance read

Q1 FY27 Revenue Growth 10-14%: Management guided Q1 FY27 revenue growth of 10-14% YoY, driven by volume and price, with FX tailwind of 7-9%. Q1 FY27 EBITDA Growth 14-18%: EBITDA growth guided at 14-18% for Q1 FY27, reflecting operating leverage despite seasonally low quarter. Capex Guidance $300-350M for FY27: Capex expected to increase to $300-350 million from $261 million in FY26, focused on specialty chemicals and backward integration. Net Debt/EBITDA Target 1.2-1.5x Medium Term: Target leverage ratio of 1.2-1.5x in the medium term, with current at 1.6x; will maintain optimal capital structure.

Risk read

Key risks include Middle East Supply Chain Disruption — Geopolitical tensions could increase raw material costs and working capital needs; management is managing via disciplined sourcing and pricing.; Elevated Credit Loss Provisions in LatAm — Q4 ECL provision of ₹350 crore (full year ₹750 crore) reflects credit stress in Latin America; analyst questioned if this is the new normal.; Shareholder Dilution from Reorganization — Analyst raised concern that the proposed demerger structure could trigger a conglomerate discount and dilute existing shareholders.; Fertilizer Price Impact on Farmer Economics — Higher fertilizer costs may reduce farmer incomes and potentially lower agrochemical consumption, though management expects crop protection demand to hold..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

LU

Lupin

Q4 FY26 · Other

Lupin delivered a stellar Q4 FY26 with revenue of ₹7,475 crore (+32% YoY) and EBITDA of ₹2,171 crore (+68% YoY), marking the 15th consecutive quarter of growth. The US business was a standout, reaching $1.31 billion for the full year (+40% YoY), driven by complex generics like Tolvaptan and Mirabegron. India prescription business grew 14.5% YoY, outperforming IPM. Management guided for high single-digit revenue growth and ~25% EBITDA margin in FY27, factoring in competition on key products and higher R&D spend. Key risks include potential generic competition for Mirabegron and Tolvaptan, and inflationary pressures from global trade disruptions.

Guidance read

FY27 Revenue Growth: High Single Digit: Management expects high single-digit revenue growth in rupee terms for FY27. FY27 EBITDA Margin: ~25%: EBITDA margin guided to around 25% for FY27, down from 29.7% in FY26, factoring in competition and higher R&D. R&D Spend: ~8% of Sales in FY27: R&D expenditure expected to be around 8% of sales for the next fiscal year. US Business: Sustain >$1B in FY27: US revenue expected to remain above $1 billion in FY27 despite competition, supported by new launches.

Risk read

Key risks include Mirabegron Competition — A third player has settled and may enter the market, potentially pressuring Lupin's market share and margins.; Tolvaptan Patent Expiry — Patent expiry in September 2026 could bring generic competition, impacting US revenue.; Inflationary Pressures — Rising freight and raw material costs due to geopolitical tensions could impact margins, though management has factored this into guidance.; Dapagliflozin 505(b)(2) Launch Delay — Challenges in achieving product PK for the Dapagliflozin 505(b)(2) could delay launch beyond FY27..

Promise ledger

Of 2 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 2 missed.