Union Bank of vs Niva Bupa Health Q4 FY26

UN

Union Bank of

Q4 FY26 · Financial Services

Union Bank of India reported a strong Q4 FY26 with net profit of ₹18,697 crore and recommended a dividend of ₹5 per share. The bank achieved robust business growth, with gross advances up 9.74% YoY and a significant improvement in CASA ratio to 35.21% from 32.51% in September. Management highlighted a strategic shift from bulk deposits to retail term deposits and CASA, reducing bulk deposits by ₹70,000 crore. The bank also created a ₹700 crore contingency provision without impacting profit or capital. NIM compressed to 2.64% due to the December rate cut but management expects stabilization and gradual improvement. Credit cost was low at 23 bps for the year, with guidance of ~1% for FY27. Key risks include potential stress from West Asia disruptions and elevated SMA1 levels, though management sees no material impact yet. The bank targets 13-14% credit growth in FY27 while maintaining asset quality and profitability.

Guidance read

Credit growth target of 13-14% for FY27: Management expects to achieve 13-14% credit growth in FY27, in line with industry trends and better than the 9.74% YoY growth in FY26. NIM to stabilize and improve from 2.64%: Management expects NIM to defend current levels and gradually improve, driven by CASA expansion and better asset-liability management. Credit cost guidance of ~1% for FY27: Management guided credit cost around 1% for FY27, up from 23 bps in FY26, reflecting normalization and prudent provisioning. PSLC fee income to potentially reach ₹1,000 crore: Management indicated that PSLC fee income could return to ₹1,000 crore plus levels in FY27, similar to FY25, after a lower contribution in FY26.

Risk read

Key risks include West Asia geopolitical disruption impact — Ongoing West Asia conflict could stress energy-sensitive sectors and remittance flows, though management sees no material impact yet.; Elevated SMA1 levels — SMA1 loans nearly doubled sequentially, indicating potential stress in the near term, though management attributed it to migration from SMA2.; NIM compression from rate cuts — Further repo rate cuts could compress NIM, though management expects to defend margins through liability mix improvement.; Deposit growth lagging credit growth — Total deposit growth of 2.72% YoY trailed credit growth of 9.74%, potentially constraining future loan growth if not addressed..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

Niva Bupa delivered a strong Q4 FY26 with GWP growth of 27.4% to ₹9,433 crore, driven by retail health growth of 35% and market share expansion to 10.4% in Q4. PAT surged 80% to ₹366 crore, with combined ratio improving 160 bps to 101.4% on operating leverage. Management guided for sustained retail industry growth of 17-19% CAGR and expects combined ratio to reach ~99% by FY29, with expense ratio savings offsetting modest loss ratio uptick. Key risks include potential commission cap regulation and competitive pressure from GST-driven volume growth normalization.

Guidance read

Combined ratio target of ~99% by FY29: Management expects combined ratio to improve to ~99% by FY29, driven by expense ratio savings of 200-250 bps. Retail health industry growth of 17-19% CAGR over 5 years: Management reiterated view that retail health industry will grow at 17-19% CAGR over a 5-year horizon. Loss ratio may inch up by ~150 bps: Management guided that loss ratio may increase by about 150 bps over time, offset by expense ratio improvements.

Risk read

Key risks include Potential commission cap regulation — Regulatory changes could cap commission rates, impacting distribution costs and growth. Management awaits clarity but believes single expense limit is preferable.; Normalization of GST-driven growth — Industry growth may moderate as the GST tailwind fades. Management expects stabilization at 17-19% CAGR, but near-term volatility is possible.; Group health loss ratio volatility — Group health loss ratio was ~60.5% for FY26, and IFRS loss components on onerous contracts could signal underwriting risk..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.