Swiggy vs Apl Apollo Tubes Q4 FY26

Swiggy reported Q4 FY26 results with a focus on quick commerce (QC) achieving contribution margin break-even in March, exiting at +110 bps CM. Food delivery grew 18-20% YoY, with steady-state margins of 5%. QC GOV reached ₹1 lakh crore medium-term ambition, driven by differentiation via private labels (e.g., 'Noise') and improved take rates. Management emphasized balancing growth and profitability, deliberately churning low-AOV users to improve unit economics. MTU additions slowed to 0.5M net, but high-value cohorts retained well. Risks include sustained competitive intensity from multiple players, which could pressure marketing spend and delay EBITDA profitability. Capex is moderating after warehousing investments.

Guidance read

Quick Commerce Contribution Margin Break-Even in Q1 FY27: Management confirmed achieving contribution margin break-even for the full quarter in Q1 FY27, with March exit at +110 bps. Quick Commerce Medium-Term GOV Target of ₹1 Lakh Crore: Target to reach ₹1 lakh crore GOV in 3.5-5 years, implying 35-50% CAGR, driven by store densification and geographic expansion. Food Delivery Steady-State Margin of 5%: Food delivery business expected to maintain steady-state EBITDA margin of 5% with medium-term growth of 18-20%. Capex to Moderate Significantly: Capex expected to decline as warehousing investments are largely complete; Q4 capex was ~₹195 Cr.

Risk read

Key risks include Sustained Competitive Intensity in Quick Commerce — Multiple players (6-7) remain aggressive, potentially pressuring marketing spend and delaying EBITDA profitability.; MTU Growth Headwind from Low-AOV Churn — Deliberate churn of low-AOV users may suppress MTU growth for another two quarters, impacting top-line momentum.; LPG Crisis Impact on Food Delivery Volumes — March LPG shortage caused <0.5% price increase; situation easing but could recur.; Uncertainty in Toy Business Model — Toy (low-price food app) is early-stage; cannibalization risk and unclear path to profitability..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

APL Apollo reported a strong Q4 FY26 with 9% volume growth YoY and EBITDA per ton exceeding ₹5,500, driven by market leadership, product innovation, and steel shortages. Full-year operating cash flow was ₹20 billion and free cash flow ₹13 billion, with net cash of ₹15 billion+. However, the Middle East crisis, gas shortages, and steel price volatility disrupted operations, particularly in Dubai (40% utilization) and domestic galvanized lines. Management maintains FY27 guidance of 15-20% volume growth and 20-25% PAT growth, focusing on margin protection over volume. Risks include prolonged geopolitical disruption, energy shortages, and potential demand slowdown from construction site halts.

Guidance read

Volume growth 15-20% in FY27: Management targets 15-20% volume growth for FY27, with a focus on margin protection. PAT growth 20-25% in FY27: PAT growth target of 20-25% for FY27, supported by margin expansion. EBITDA per ton sustainable at ₹5,000-5,500: Management expects EBITDA per ton to remain in the ₹5,000-5,500 range going forward. Capex of ₹14,500 crore for 8 MTPA capacity by FY28: Total capex of ₹14,500 crore over next 2.5 years to reach 8 million tonnes capacity by FY28.

Risk read

Key risks include Prolonged Middle East crisis — The ongoing war has disrupted global supply chains and impacted Dubai operations at 40% utilization.; Energy shortages in India — Gas shortages caused temporary shutdowns in March; fear of recurrence may limit production to 80-85%.; Demand slowdown from construction halts — Construction sites halted due to labor shortages and raw material price inflation, delaying purchases.; Steel price volatility and inventory risk — Rapid steel price increases may lead to destocking; however, low inventory days mitigate mark-to-market risk..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.