Senco Gold vs Avanti Feeds Q3 FY26

Senco Gold delivered a historic Q3 FY26 with revenue of ₹3,000 Cr (+50% YoY), EBITDA of ₹400 Cr (13.2% margin, +210bps YoY), and PAT of ₹264 Cr (+689% YoY). The stellar performance was driven by strong festive and wedding demand, a shift to lightweight and diamond studded jewelry (studded value +38% YoY), and operating leverage from higher own-store sales (65% of revenue). Management guided for Q4 revenue growth of 25-30% YoY and a sustainable EBITDA margin of 7.5-7.8% for FY27, with near-term margins benefiting from elevated gold prices. Key risks include gold price volatility impacting volume growth (gold volume -10% in 9M) and working capital strain from high inventory levels (₹4,602 Cr).

Guidance read

Q4 FY26 revenue growth of 25-30% YoY: Management guided for 25-30% revenue growth in Q4, conservatively, despite gold price volatility and seasonal factors like Holi. FY27 sustainable EBITDA margin of 7.5-7.8%: For FY27, management expects EBITDA margin of 7.5-7.8% at current gold prices, with 7.3-7.5% if prices moderate. FY27 store addition of 18-20 stores: Plans to open 18-20 stores in FY27, with a mix of 8-10 own stores and 8-10 franchise stores, focusing on franchise expansion. Hedging ratio to remain 55-60% near-term: Hedging ratio will stay at 55-60% due to gold price volatility and working capital constraints; may increase to 80-90% if stability returns.

Risk read

Key risks include Gold price volatility impacting volume — Gold volume declined 10% in 9M FY26; further price spikes could compress consumer budgets and reduce footfalls, pressuring revenue growth.; Working capital strain from high inventory — Inventory value rose to ₹4,602 Cr (from ₹2,963 Cr), funded by borrowings; elevated gold prices increase working capital needs and interest costs.; Hedging policy opacity and margin call risk — Management declined to disclose detailed hedging strategies; recent gold price swings caused margin calls, and low hedging (55-60%) exposes balance sheet to price drops.; Realization gain dependency on gold price rise — 2-2.5% of EBITDA margin in 9M came from realization gains; if gold prices stabilize or fall, margins could revert to 7.5-7.8% guidance..

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Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

AV

Avanti Feeds

Q3 FY26 · Other

Avanti Feeds reported Q3 FY26 consolidated gross income of ₹1,447 crore, up 3% YoY but down 13% sequentially, reflecting seasonal feed volume decline. PBT grew 21% YoY to ₹222 crore, aided by lower raw material costs in feed and improved realizations in processing. Feed division PBT margin was 16% for 9M FY26, but management expects full-year PBT margin to moderate to 14.5-15% due to rising fish meal and soybean meal prices. Processing division saw 39% YoY revenue growth, driven by higher volumes and better realizations. The US tariff situation has improved with the removal of IEEPA-based duties, though a 10% import surcharge remains. Pet care sales reached ₹1.36 crore in Q3, with a manufacturing facility under development. Guidance for FY27 is preliminary, with expectations of 10%+ feed volume growth. Key risk: sustained raw material inflation could compress margins in Q4.

Guidance read

FY26 feed sales target of ~5,55,000 MT: Management expects full-year feed sales volume to reach around 5,55,000 MT, implying strong Q4 volumes. FY26 PBT margin guidance of 14.5-15%: Full-year PBT margin expected to be 14.5-15% for the feed division, down from 16% in 9M due to raw material cost pressures. FY26 processing export target of ~16,500 MT: Shrimp processing exports are estimated at 16,500 MT for FY26, up from 14,149 MT in FY25. Feed volume growth of at least 10% in FY27: Management expects minimum 10% growth in feed sales volume in FY27, driven by positive farmer sentiment and expanded culture area.

Risk read

Key risks include Rising raw material prices — Fish meal and soybean meal prices have increased sharply, with fish meal at ₹145/kg currently, which could compress feed margins in Q4.; US tariff uncertainty — Although IEEPA tariffs were removed, a new 10% import surcharge under Section 122 has been imposed, with potential increase to 15%, creating ongoing uncertainty for exports.; Pet care project execution delay — The pet food manufacturing facility is still in design and approval stage; management could not provide a clear timeline for commissioning, indicating potential delays.; Competition from e-commerce private labels — Amazon has launched its own pet food brand, which could pose a threat to Avanti's online sales channel, though management downplayed the risk..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.