Powergrid vs Insolation Energy Q3 FY26

Power Grid reported a strong Q3 FY26 with standalone revenue of INR 12,436 crore (+7% YoY) and PAT of INR 4,160 crore (+7% YoY), driven by improved project execution and resolution of right-of-way issues. Management raised FY26 CapEx guidance to INR 32,000 crore and capitalization to INR 22,000 crore, with FY27 CapEx guided at INR 37,000 crore and FY28 at INR 45,000 crore. The order book stands at INR 1.95 lakh crore, with 80-90% from TBCB projects. Key growth drivers include renewable evacuation, HVDC projects, battery storage, and international expansion (e.g., Kenya). Risks include supply chain constraints for transformers and potential delays in HVDC project awards.

Guidance read

FY26 CapEx raised to INR 32,000 crore: Management increased FY26 CapEx guidance from INR 28,000 crore to INR 32,000 crore, citing strong execution momentum. FY26 Capitalization raised to INR 22,000 crore: Capitalization guidance increased from INR 20,000 crore to INR 22,000 crore, with 9M already at INR 12,915 crore. FY27 CapEx of INR 37,000 crore and FY28 CapEx of INR 45,000 crore: Management provided multi-year CapEx guidance, reflecting strong pipeline of TBCB and HVDC projects. FY27 Capitalization of INR 30,000 crore and FY28 of INR 35,000 crore: Capitalization trajectory aligns with project commissioning timelines, with HVDC spending peaking in FY27-28.

Risk read

Key risks include Transformer supply chain constraints — Domestic transformer capacity (228,000 MVA) is insufficient vs demand (421,000 MVA in FY27), potentially delaying projects unless Chinese component imports are allowed.; Right-of-way issues persist despite improvements — While new guidelines have helped, ROW remains a challenge in some states; execution depends on timely adoption by local authorities.; HVDC project award delays — Two major HVDC projects (Barmer II-Srikakulam, Bikaner V-Begunia) may slip beyond FY27, impacting CapEx phasing.; Intrastate project risks — Intrastate projects (e.g., Maharashtra, Karnataka) involve higher execution risks; management will bid selectively based on risk assessment..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

Insolation Energy delivered a strong Q3 FY26 with revenue of ₹575 crore (+77% YoY) and EBITDA of ₹81.7 crore (+175% YoY), with EBITDA margin expanding 560 bps to 14.2%. Growth was driven by higher dispatches (364 MW) from the new INA3 line and improved operating leverage. The order book stands at 2.1 GW, providing 6-9 months visibility. Management guided for 40-45% revenue CAGR and sustained EBITDA margins of 14.5-15% (ex-cell). The 4.5 GW cell plant at Nirmadapuram is on track for Q3 FY27 commissioning, expected to add 400-500 bps to margins. Key risk: rapid price volatility in polysilicon and solar cells could pressure fixed-price order profitability.

Guidance read

Revenue CAGR of 40-45% over medium term: Management expects to sustain 40-45% revenue CAGR, targeting $1 billion (₹8,000 crore) top line in 2-3 years. Q4 FY26 dispatches of 450-500 MW: Management guided for dispatches of 450-500 MW in Q4 FY26, up from 364 MW in Q3. Cell plant commissioning in Q3 FY27: The 4.5 GW cell plant at Nirmadapuram is expected to be commissioned in Q3 FY27, with full ramp-up in 3 months. EBITDA margin expansion of 400-500 bps with cell integration: Once cell production starts, EBITDA margins are expected to increase by 400-500 bps, reaching ~20%.

Risk read

Key risks include Raw material price volatility — Rapid changes in polysilicon and solar cell prices make it difficult to maintain long-term fixed-price orders, potentially squeezing margins.; Delay in cell plant commissioning — The cell plant is critical for margin expansion; any delay beyond Q3 FY27 could impact profitability targets.; Overcapacity concerns in solar manufacturing — Despite management's rebuttal, industry overcapacity could lead to pricing pressure and lower capacity utilization.; Revenue guidance miss for FY26 — Management revised FY26 revenue guidance down to ~₹2,000 crore from earlier ₹3,300 crore due to capacity ramp-up delays..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.