Ongc FY25 Annual Earnings Summary
3 quarters covered · ₹1,37,361 Cr revenue · ₹56,532 Cr PAT · 0.0% average EBITDA margin.
Quarter-by-quarter progression
Management promises made during the year
Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q2 FY25Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q4 FY25Current-quarter commentary contains related evidence, but delivery is not conclusive enough for a clean met verdict.
Q4 FY25Risks flagged during the year
OPaL reported PAT loss of INR 983 crore in Q1 FY25; restructuring awaits government clearance, posing downside risk.
Q2 FY25 · highOPaL reported a PAT loss of ₹637 crore in Q2 FY25; management declined to provide near-term profitability guidance, citing dependence on product and feedstock prices.
Q4 FY25 · highGas production currently at 2.75 MSCMD; target of 6-7 MSCMD hinges on installing a living quarters platform, delayed due to weather.
Q1 FY25 · mediumManagement cited rough weather as a cause for slower production ramp-up; further delays could impact production targets.
Q1 FY25 · mediumAnalyst raised concern about windfall tax on KG Basin oil; management stated they do not anticipate it currently, but uncertainty remains.
Q1 FY25 · mediumTotalEnergies' Mozambique LNG project faces delays due to elections; OVL's CapEx may increase once force majeure is lifted.
Q2 FY25 · mediumSales revenue decreased 3.5% YoY in Q2 due to lower crude realizations (₹6,561/bbl vs ₹7,013/bbl). Further price declines could pressure earnings.
Q2 FY25 · mediumOVL's Russian assets are underperforming due to the Ukraine conflict, and Venezuelan operations face sanctions and operational uncertainty.
Q2 FY25 · mediumDespite new well gas, overall gas production declined 2.1% YoY in Q2; management expects a natural decline rate of 7.5% for nominated fields, which could offset gains.
Q4 FY25 · mediumExploration write-offs surged to INR 4,257 crore in FY25; management noted unpredictability in dry well incidence, which could pressure earnings.
Q4 FY25 · mediumOPaL's ethane import from US is targeted for 2028; any delay could prolong reliance on costlier naphtha (60% of feedstock).
What changed through the year
Q1 FY25 · KG 98/2 oil production to reach 30,000 bpd by Q3 FY25
Management expects oil production from KG 98/2 to increase from current 12,000 bpd to 30,000 bpd by Q3 FY25, with peak of 45,000 bpd in subsequent quarters.
Q1 FY25 · KG 98/2 gas production to reach 6 MMSCMD by March 2025
Gas production from KG 98/2 is expected to reach 6 million standard cubic meters per day by end of March 2025.
Q1 FY25 · Standalone oil production target of 20.5 MMT for FY25
ONGC standalone oil production target for FY25 is 20.5 MMT, with JV contributing 1.71 MMT, totaling 22.3 MMT.
Q1 FY25 · CapEx guidance of INR 32,000-33,000 crore for FY25 standalone
ONGC standalone CapEx for FY25 is planned at around INR 32,000-33,000 crore, excluding green energy investments.
Q2 FY25 · Peak oil production of 45,000 bopd from KG-DWN-98/2 by FY25-end
Management confirmed on track to reach 45,000 barrels of oil per day from the KG field by the end of the current financial year.
Q2 FY25 · Gas ramp-up to 10 MMSCMD from KG field by FY25-end or early FY26
Gas production from the East Coast is expected to reach 10 MMSCMD by the end of FY25 or early FY26.
Q2 FY25 · Capex guidance of ₹34,000-36,000 crore for FY26 and FY27
Capital expenditure is expected to remain in the range of ₹34,000-36,000 crore for the next two financial years.
Q2 FY25 · OPaL turnaround expected from FY26 onwards
Management expects OPaL to improve significantly from next year due to lower interest costs and cheaper feedstock from new well gas allocation.
Q4 FY25 · Standalone crude oil production target of ~21.5 MMT for FY26
Management expects crude production to rise to 21.5 million metric tons in FY26, driven by TSP initiatives and new wells.
Q4 FY25 · Standalone gas production target of ~21 BCM for FY26
Gas production expected to reach 21 BCM in FY26, with 5 MSCMD incremental from DUDP by Q4 FY26.
Q4 FY25 · CapEx guidance of INR 30,000-35,000 crore for FY26
Total CapEx including E&P and renewables expected to be INR 30,000-35,000 crore, lower than FY25 due to falling service costs.
Q4 FY25 · New well gas to add INR 1,500-2,000 crore revenue in FY26
Revenue from new well gas pricing expected to double from INR 700 crore in FY25 to INR 1,500-2,000 crore in FY26.