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Slower ramp-up of KG 98/2 due to weather
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Oil & Natural Gas Corporation — Q1 FY25
ONGC reported a 15.1% YoY decline in standalone PAT to INR 8,938 crore for Q1 FY25, driven by lower natural gas realization, higher exploration write-offs (up INR 627 crore), and increased depletion costs.
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ONGC reported a 15.1% YoY decline in standalone PAT to INR 8,938 crore for Q1 FY25, driven by lower natural gas realization, higher exploration write-offs (up INR 627 crore), and increased depletion costs. Consolidated PAT fell 42.79% to INR 10,236 crore, impacted by HPCL and MRPL. Crude oil realization rose 10.4% to INR 6,928/bbl, but statutory levies surged 31% due to SAED. Management highlighted KG 98/2 ramp-up: oil production expected to reach 30,000 bpd by Q3 and 45,000 bpd peak, with gas at 6 MMSCMD by March 2025. Guidance includes 12% oil production growth over two years and 27% gas growth. Key risk: slower-than-expected ramp-up due to weather or operational delays.
ONGC ने पहली तिमाही (अप्रैल-जून 2024) में अपने शुद्ध लाभ में 15.1% की गिरावट दर्ज की, जो 8,938 करोड़ रुपये रहा। इसकी वजह गैस की कम कीमत, अधिक खर्च (जैसे 627 करोड़ रुपये का अतिरिक्त लिखना) और तेल निकालने की बढ़ी लागत है। कंपनी का कुल लाभ 42.79% घटकर 10,236 करोड़ रुपये रहा, जिस पर HPCL और MRPL का असर पड़ा। कच्चे तेल की कीमत 10.4% बढ़कर 6,928 रुपये प्रति बैरल हुई, लेकिन सरकारी टैक्स 31% बढ़ गया। ONGC ने KG 98/2 से तेल उत्पादन बढ़ाने की योजना बताई: सितंबर 2024 तक 30,000 बैरल प्रतिदिन और मार्च 2025 तक 45,000 बैरल प्रतिदिन, साथ ही गैस 6 मिलियन क्यूबिक मीटर प्रतिदिन। अगले दो साल में तेल उत्पादन 12% और गैस 27% बढ़ने का अनुमान है। मौसम या देरी से यह लक्ष्य प्रभावित हो सकता है।
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KG 98/2 Oil Production Rate
12,000 bpd
+0% vs prior quarter
Current oil production from KG 98/2 field; expected to reach 30,000 bpd by Q3 FY25.
KG 98/2 Gas Production Rate
0.4 MMSCMD
+0% vs prior quarter
Current gas production from KG 98/2; expected to reach 1.4 MMSCMD by August 2024.
Crude Oil Realization (USD)
$83.05/bbl
+8.8% YoY
Billing net of VAT/CST for crude oil in Q1 FY25 vs $76.36/bbl in Q1 FY24.
Exploration Write-offs
INR 1,643 crore
+61.7% YoY
Increase due to unsuccessful wells at Western Offshore and KG Basin.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
KG 98/2 oil production to reach 30,000 bpd by Q3 FY25
Management expects oil production from KG 98/2 to increase from current 12,000 bpd to 30,000 bpd by Q3 FY25, with peak of 45,000 bpd in subsequent quarters.
NEW
KG 98/2 gas production to reach 6 MMSCMD by March 2025
Gas production from KG 98/2 is expected to reach 6 million standard cubic meters per day by end of March 2025.
NEW
Standalone oil production target of 20.5 MMT for FY25
ONGC standalone oil production target for FY25 is 20.5 MMT, with JV contributing 1.71 MMT, totaling 22.3 MMT.
UPDATED
CapEx guidance of INR 32,000-33,000 crore for FY25 standalone
ONGC standalone CapEx for FY25 is planned at around INR 32,000-33,000 crore, excluding green energy investments.
DROPPED
KG-98/2 ramp-up: oil to 45,000 bopd, gas to 10 MMSCMD by Q4 FY25
Oil production to increase from 12,000 bopd to 20,000-30,000 bopd in Q3 FY25 and 45,000 bopd in Q4 FY25. Gas to reach 10 MMSCMD by Q4 FY25.
DROPPED
Production target of 47 MMtoe by FY27
Overall production to increase 20% to 47 MMtoe by FY27, with oil at 21.87 MMtoe and gas at 25.5 BCF.
DROPPED
OPaL restructuring expected to improve profitability in 1-2 years
Management expects OPaL to turn around in 1-2 years after equity infusion, feedstock resolution, and SEZ exit.
NEW RISK
Slower ramp-up of KG 98/2 due to weather
Management cited rough weather as a cause for slower production ramp-up; further delays could impact production targets.
NEW RISK
Windfall tax applicability on KG Basin oil
Analyst raised concern about windfall tax on KG Basin oil; management stated they do not anticipate it currently, but uncertainty remains.
NEW RISK
Mozambique project delays
TotalEnergies' Mozambique LNG project faces delays due to elections; OVL's CapEx may increase once force majeure is lifted.
NEW RISK
OPaL losses continue
OPaL reported PAT loss of INR 983 crore in Q1 FY25; restructuring awaits government clearance, posing downside risk.
RISK GONE
KG-98/2 ramp-up execution risk
Ramp-up to 45,000 bopd and 10 MMSCMD by Q4 FY25 depends on weather and installation timelines; delays could push targets.
RISK GONE
Windfall tax policy uncertainty
Windfall tax at $75/bbl cap may not be revised despite rising OpEx; management is engaging with government but no assurance.
RISK GONE
OPaL losses persist despite restructuring
OPaL reported negative EBITDA in FY24; turnaround depends on regulatory approvals and market conditions, which are uncertain.
RISK GONE
Natural decline in mature fields
Gas production declined 3% in Q4 due to 7-8% natural decline in mature fields; mitigation depends on new projects.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Management expects oil production from KG 98/2 to increase from current 12,000 bpd to 30,000 bpd by Q3 FY25, with peak of 45,000 bpd in subsequent...
Management cited rough weather as a cause for slower production ramp-up; further delays could impact production targets.
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