Ntpc vs Maruti Q4 FY25

NTPC reported a strong FY25 with consolidated revenue of INR 1,90,862 crore (+5% YoY) and PAT of INR 23,953 crore (+12% YoY), driven by higher generation, improved JV profits, and renewable expansion. Standalone PAT grew 9% to INR 19,649 crore. The group added 3,972 MW capacity, with 3,312 MW from renewables. Management guided for record capacity addition of 11,806 MW in FY26, including 7,226 MW renewable. Thermal PLF remained best-in-class at 77.44%. Risks include potential delays in renewable project execution due to land and connectivity constraints, and thermal project slippages (Obra/Anpara) due to coal and water issues.

Guidance read

FY26 group capacity addition target of 11,806 MW: Includes 3,518 MW thermal, 1,000 MW hydro, and 7,226 MW renewable. Standalone adds 2,019 MW. FY27 group capacity addition target of 9,904 MW: Comprises 1,460 MW thermal, 444 MW hydro, and 8,000 MW renewable. Group CapEx of INR 55,920 crore in FY26: Rising to INR 97,363 crore in FY27 and INR 1,12,172 crore in FY28, totaling INR 2,65,455 crore over three years. Captive coal production target of 45 MMT in FY26: Rising to 56 MMT and 60 MMT in subsequent years, with ~7% CAGR.

Risk read

Key risks include Renewable project execution delays — Land and transmission connectivity remain key challenges; management acknowledged connectivity may become available only by FY29-30.; Thermal project slippages at Obra and Anpara — These projects are on hold due to coal availability and water issues, potentially impacting thermal capacity addition targets.; PPA status uncertainty for renewable pipeline — Management did not provide a clear breakdown of PPA coverage for the 17 GW pipeline, leaving revenue visibility unclear.; Chhabra plant acquisition delays — Discussions on modalities and coal arrangements are still ongoing; no timeline for completion was provided..

Promise ledger

Of 2 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 2 missed.

Maruti Suzuki reported Q4 FY25 net sales of ₹38,800 crore (+5.7% YoY) and net profit of ₹3,710 crore (-4.1% YoY), impacted by higher other expenses, new plant overheads, and adverse mix. Volumes hit a record 604,635 units (+3.5% YoY), driven by exports (+8.1%) and calibrated wholesale dispatches. EBITDA margin contracted due to 90 bps lumpy expenses, 40 bps adverse mix, and 30 bps from Kharkhoda plant ramp-up, partly offset by lower sales promotion and operating leverage. Management guided for ~20% export growth in FY26 and two new SUV launches, including the e Vitara EV. Domestic industry growth is expected at a modest 1-2%. Key risk: sustained pressure on entry-level demand and potential steel price hikes post-safeguard duty.

Guidance read

Export growth of ~20% in FY26: Management expects exports to grow by at least 20% in FY26, building on the 17.5% growth in FY25. Domestic industry growth of 1-2% in FY26: Maruti forecasts a modest 1-2% growth for the domestic PV industry in FY26, with the company aiming to outperform. Two new model launches in FY26: Plans to launch the e Vitara EV and another SUV in FY26, with e Vitara sales starting in H1. Capex guidance of ₹8,000-9,000 crore for FY26: Capital expenditure for FY26 is expected to be in the range of ₹8,000-9,000 crore, including SMG.

Risk read

Key risks include Steel price inflation post-safeguard duty — Management flagged that domestic steel producers may use the safeguard duty to raise prices, impacting margins.; Sustained weakness in entry-level demand — Chairman noted 88% of the country is not participating in car growth, with entry-level segment shrinking.; EV profitability overhang — Management acknowledged EVs will have much lower profitability than ICE vehicles, potentially dragging overall margins.; New plant ramp-up costs — Kharkhoda plant contributed 30 bps margin headwind in Q4; full benefit of scale will take time..

Promise ledger

Of 3 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 3 missed.