Mahindra & Mahindra FY24 Annual Earnings Summary
4 quarters covered · ₹1,39,079 Cr revenue · ₹12,270 Cr PAT · 4.5% average EBITDA margin.
Quarter-by-quarter progression
Management promises made during the year
Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q2 FY24Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q2 FY24Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q3 FY24Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q3 FY24Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q4 FY24Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q4 FY24Risks flagged during the year
Tech Mahindra reported its worst quarter ever, and management acknowledged it will take 2-3 years to fix, posing a drag on consolidated earnings.
Q3 FY24 · highTechM profit down 61%; management acknowledged it as a sore spot and expects recovery but with uncertainty.
Q4 FY24 · highA INR 136 crore fraud in Aizawl branch raised concerns about internal controls; management claims strengthened processes.
Q1 FY24 · mediumManagement cautioned that semiconductor issues could resurface, potentially impacting production volumes.
Q1 FY24 · mediumAnalysts raised concerns about the lack of immediate tangible benefits from the RBL Bank investment, with management citing a long-term optionality that may not materialize.
Q1 FY24 · mediumManagement noted difficulty in forecasting tractor demand due to monsoon variability and base effects, with potential downside if rains disappoint.
Q2 FY24 · mediumManagement flagged a three-digit crore one-time expense in Q3 for World Cup sponsorship, which could pressure margins.
Q2 FY24 · mediumManagement indicated a 3-year timeline for TechM's turnaround, but analysts questioned whether FY25 would see significant improvement; response was cautious.
Q2 FY24 · mediumM&M has not yet applied for final PLI certification for the XUV400, while a competitor has already received it, posing a competitive risk.
Q3 FY24 · mediumTractor industry down ~5% due to weak rural sentiment; recovery depends on monsoon and government spending.
Q3 FY24 · mediumBookings fell as deliveries improved; management sees this as positive but risk of demand softening if perception of long wait persists.
Q4 FY24 · mediumGlobal EV slowdown and low penetration in India may impact BEV launch success; management relies on 'wow' products to drive demand.
What changed through the year
Q1 FY24 · Auto capacity to reach 39,000 units per month by Q4 FY24
Management confirmed that production capacity will increase to 39,000 units per month by the end of Q4 FY24, with current production already at that level.
Q1 FY24 · EPS growth target of 15-20%
Management reiterated a long-term EPS growth target of 15-20%, despite a strong 60% growth in Q1.
Q1 FY24 · ROE threshold of 18%
Management committed to maintaining an ROE of at least 18%, with current ROE at 24%.
Q1 FY24 · Farm machinery growth target of 40% for FY24
Management expressed confidence in achieving at least 40% growth in farm machinery revenue for the full year.
Q2 FY24 · Auto production capacity to reach 49,000/month by March 2024
Production is currently at 42,000/month and on track to hit 49,000 by end of fiscal year.
Q2 FY24 · Farm machinery revenue growth target of ~40% for FY24
Management expects farm machinery revenue to grow about 40% for the full year, up from 35% in H1.
Q2 FY24 · Mahindra Finance credit cost target of 1.5%-1.7% for FY24
Credit cost expected to decline from 2.3% in H1 to 1.5%-1.7% by year-end, driven by structural asset quality improvement.
Q2 FY24 · Susten capacity target of 7 GW in 4 years
Susten plans to grow from 1.5 GW to 7 GW in 4 years, with 1 GW of bids already won in H1.
Q3 FY24 · SUV volume growth mid-to-high teens in FY25
M&M expects to grow faster than the UV industry (SIAM forecast 10-12%), targeting mid-to-high teens growth.
Q3 FY24 · Auto capacity to reach 49,000/month by Q4 FY24
Capacity expansion on track to 49,000 units per month by end of current quarter, though near-term volumes may be impacted by XUV300 ramp-down.
Q3 FY24 · Tractor industry Q4 FY24 decline of 10%
Management guided for tractor industry to decline 10% in Q4 FY24, with full-year decline around 5%.
Q3 FY24 · Farm machinery breakeven in 1.5-2 years
Farm machinery business expected to break even in about 1.5 to 2 years with current growth plans.
Q4 FY24 · Auto volume growth mid-to-high teens in FY25
Management expects auto volume growth in the mid-to-high teens for FY25, driven by new launches like XUV 3XO and Thar 5-door.
Q4 FY24 · Farm sector growth of ~5% in FY25
Farm sector expected to grow around 5% in FY25, with potential upside from favorable monsoons and farmer terms of trade.
Q4 FY24 · Auto capex of INR 27,000 crore over three years
Includes INR 12,000 crore for EVs, INR 8,500 crore for SUV ICE, INR 4,000 crore for CVs, and INR 1,500 crore for Susten.
Q4 FY24 · Farm capex of INR 5,000 crore over three years
Includes INR 2,800 crore for product development, INR 700 crore for capacity, and INR 600 crore for TREM V readiness.