Lupin vs Apl Apollo Tubes Q4 FY26

LU

Lupin

Q4 FY26 · Other

Lupin delivered a stellar Q4 FY26 with revenue of ₹7,475 crore (+32% YoY) and EBITDA of ₹2,171 crore (+68% YoY), marking the 15th consecutive quarter of growth. The US business was a standout, reaching $1.31 billion for the full year (+40% YoY), driven by complex generics like Tolvaptan and Mirabegron. India prescription business grew 14.5% YoY, outperforming IPM. Management guided for high single-digit revenue growth and ~25% EBITDA margin in FY27, factoring in competition on key products and higher R&D spend. Key risks include potential generic competition for Mirabegron and Tolvaptan, and inflationary pressures from global trade disruptions.

Guidance read

FY27 Revenue Growth: High Single Digit: Management expects high single-digit revenue growth in rupee terms for FY27. FY27 EBITDA Margin: ~25%: EBITDA margin guided to around 25% for FY27, down from 29.7% in FY26, factoring in competition and higher R&D. R&D Spend: ~8% of Sales in FY27: R&D expenditure expected to be around 8% of sales for the next fiscal year. US Business: Sustain >$1B in FY27: US revenue expected to remain above $1 billion in FY27 despite competition, supported by new launches.

Risk read

Key risks include Mirabegron Competition — A third player has settled and may enter the market, potentially pressuring Lupin's market share and margins.; Tolvaptan Patent Expiry — Patent expiry in September 2026 could bring generic competition, impacting US revenue.; Inflationary Pressures — Rising freight and raw material costs due to geopolitical tensions could impact margins, though management has factored this into guidance.; Dapagliflozin 505(b)(2) Launch Delay — Challenges in achieving product PK for the Dapagliflozin 505(b)(2) could delay launch beyond FY27..

Promise ledger

Of 2 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 2 missed.

APL Apollo reported a strong Q4 FY26 with 9% volume growth YoY and EBITDA per ton exceeding ₹5,500, driven by market leadership, product innovation, and steel shortages. Full-year operating cash flow was ₹20 billion and free cash flow ₹13 billion, with net cash of ₹15 billion+. However, the Middle East crisis, gas shortages, and steel price volatility disrupted operations, particularly in Dubai (40% utilization) and domestic galvanized lines. Management maintains FY27 guidance of 15-20% volume growth and 20-25% PAT growth, focusing on margin protection over volume. Risks include prolonged geopolitical disruption, energy shortages, and potential demand slowdown from construction site halts.

Guidance read

Volume growth 15-20% in FY27: Management targets 15-20% volume growth for FY27, with a focus on margin protection. PAT growth 20-25% in FY27: PAT growth target of 20-25% for FY27, supported by margin expansion. EBITDA per ton sustainable at ₹5,000-5,500: Management expects EBITDA per ton to remain in the ₹5,000-5,500 range going forward. Capex of ₹14,500 crore for 8 MTPA capacity by FY28: Total capex of ₹14,500 crore over next 2.5 years to reach 8 million tonnes capacity by FY28.

Risk read

Key risks include Prolonged Middle East crisis — The ongoing war has disrupted global supply chains and impacted Dubai operations at 40% utilization.; Energy shortages in India — Gas shortages caused temporary shutdowns in March; fear of recurrence may limit production to 80-85%.; Demand slowdown from construction halts — Construction sites halted due to labor shortages and raw material price inflation, delaying purchases.; Steel price volatility and inventory risk — Rapid steel price increases may lead to destocking; however, low inventory days mitigate mark-to-market risk..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.