Bear Cases vs Reality
Middle East revenue growth decelerates Alive 1, weakening 2, dead 0.
View Bear Cases →Kalyan Jewellers delivered a stellar Q3 FY26 with consolidated revenue of INR 10,343 crore (+42% YoY) and PAT of INR 416 crore (+90% YoY), driven by strong festive demand, same-store sales growth exceeding 30% during Diwali, and margin expansion from improv...
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Kalyan Jewellers delivered a stellar Q3 FY26 with consolidated revenue of INR 10,343 crore (+42% YoY) and PAT of INR 416 crore (+90% YoY), driven by strong festive demand, same-store sales growth exceeding 30% during Diwali, and margin expansion from improved studded mix, procurement changes, and operating leverage. Candere turned PAT-positive with revenue growth of 144% to INR 135 crore. Management remains upbeat about Q4, citing strong wedding season momentum despite gold price volatility. Key risks include potential demand moderation if gold prices continue to surge, impacting volume and inventory turns. The company plans to launch a regional brand in Goa this quarter and maintain store additions of 80-90 per year in India.
कल्याण ज्वैलर्स ने तीसरी तिमाही में शानदार प्रदर्शन किया। कंपनी की कुल कमाई 10,343 करोड़ रुपये रही, जो पिछले साल से 42% ज्यादा है। मुनाफा 416 करोड़ रुपये रहा, जो 90% बढ़ा। यह त्योहारी मांग, दिवाली पर 30% से ज्यादा की दुकान-दर-दुकान बिक्री बढ़ोतरी, और ज्यादा हीरे-जड़ित गहने बेचने से हुआ। कंपनी ने खरीदारी के तरीके बदले और खर्च कम किए। कैंडेर ने पहली बार मुनाफा कमाया, उसकी कमाई 144% बढ़कर 135 करोड़ रुपये हुई। कंपनी को चौथी तिमाही में शादियों के सीजन से अच्छी उम्मीद है, भले ही सोने के दाम बढ़ रहे हों। खतरा यह है कि अगर सोना और महंगा हुआ तो बिक्री और स्टॉक पर असर पड़ सकता है। कंपनी गोवा में नया ब्रांड लॉन्च करेगी और हर साल 80-90 नई दुकानें खोलेगी।
Middle East revenue growth decelerates Alive 1, weakening 2, dead 0.
View Bear Cases →0 delivered, 0 close, 2 missed.
View Promises →Gold price volatility impacting volume and inventory turns
View Risks →Full transcript text is available on this route.
Read Transcript →Like-for-like growth during the 30-day period ending Diwali exceeded 30%.
Candere recorded 117% revenue growth for the nine months ended December 2025.
Total franchisee showrooms in India exceed 200, with ~30 in South India.
Gold exchange contributed over 30% of revenue, slightly higher than last year.
Management guided for 80-90 new Kalyan Jewellers stores in India annually for the next two years.
Middle East and other overseas markets will see 6-7 new showrooms annually for the next couple of years.
Candere will add 30-40 stores with a capital expenditure of INR 2-2.5 crore per store.
A new regional brand will be launched in Goa during the current quarter (Q4 FY26).
Management plans to open 84 Kalyan-branded stores in India this fiscal year, with 40 already opened as of the call date.
Candere is expected to achieve PAT neutrality for the full fiscal year, with revenue target of around ₹500 crore.
The company targets reducing non-GML debt to approximately ₹400 crore by the end of FY26, with debt-free status next year.
Sharp rise in gold prices may reduce volume of jewelry sold and increase inventory carrying costs, pressuring cash flows.
18-karat and lower-karat jewelry adoption is slower in South India, which could limit margin expansion in that region.
Management plans to reduce pledges over next six months, which may involve share sales or additional borrowing.
Competitors are investing in LGD, but Kalyan has no immediate plans, potentially missing a growth trend.
As the share of franchisee (FOCO) stores increases, overall EBITDA margins may continue to decline due to lower margins in that channel.
Overall employee attrition rose to 52%, driven by My Kalyan's field marketing staff; management indicated this is an industry norm and unlikely to improve.
Candere store openings are behind schedule (30 opened vs 80 target), due to location upgrades; execution risk remains for meeting the full-year target.
Middle East revenue grew only 8% YoY with 7% SSG, impacted by timing of festivities; sustained slowdown could affect overall growth.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q1 FY26, Q2 FY25, Q3 FY25
Management plans to add 80 Candere showrooms in India during the current financial year.
Mentioned in Q1 FY26, Q2 FY26, Q4 FY25
Candere is expected to achieve PAT neutrality for the full fiscal year, with revenue target of around ₹500 crore.
Mentioned in Q2 FY25, Q3 FY25
Plan to further reduce debt by approximately ₹150 crore during Q4 FY25.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q1 FY26
Management guided that India PBT margin should be on the upper side of 5% for the current quarter and year.
Mentioned in Q1 FY25, Q2 FY25
Local competitors are becoming more active with increased branding and festive promotions, which could impact market share and pricing.
Management guided for 80-90 new Kalyan Jewellers stores in India annually for the next two years.
Sharp rise in gold prices may reduce volume of jewelry sold and increase inventory carrying costs, pressuring cash flows.
View Risks →