HPCL vs Reliance Q4 FY26

HI

HPCL

Q4 FY26 · Energy

HPCL delivered a strong Q4 FY26 with standalone PAT of ₹4,901 crore (+46% YoY), driven by robust Jan-Feb momentum and lagged crude benefits in March. Full-year standalone PAT of ₹17,175 crore (133% YoY) was 17% above the previous best. Key drivers included cost savings of ₹1,691 crore under the Samriddhi program, tight working capital management reducing debt by ₹15,724 crore to ₹47,599 crore, and lower interest costs. The Barmer refinery (HRRL) commissioning was delayed by a minor fire but is expected to achieve COD shortly, with ramp-up to 60% capacity in June. The new RFCC unit at Mumbai refinery is stabilizing after catalyst clogging issues. However, Q1 FY27 is expected to be very tough due to high crude prices and product price caps, with management acknowledging losses but declining to quantify. The key risk is prolonged geopolitical turmoil further squeezing margins and delaying the recovery of marketing losses.

Guidance read

Barmer refinery COD in Q1 FY27: Expect to achieve COD shortly, operate at 60% capacity in June, full ramp-up from Q2. RFCC unit full ramp-up in 1-2 months: After catalyst clogging, unit is back on stream; full benefits expected from end of Q1 or Q2. Q1 FY27 expected to be loss-making: Management guided that Q1 will be very tough with losses due to high crude and low product prices. Capex flexibility in FY27: Projected capex slightly lower than FY26; discretionary spends deferred; committed capex continues.

Risk read

Key risks include Prolonged geopolitical crisis — Continued supply disruptions and high crude prices could deepen losses and delay recovery.; LPG under-recoveries escalating — LPG loss per cylinder rose from ₹84 in Q4 to ₹170 in April and ₹670 in May, straining finances.; Barmer refinery startup delays — Fire incident on April 20 delayed commissioning; any further setbacks could impact self-sufficiency.; No forward guidance on losses — Management declined to quantify daily loss rate, leaving uncertainty for investors..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

RE

Reliance

Q4 FY26 · Conglomerate

Reliance Industries reported a mixed Q4 FY26 with consumer businesses (Jio + Retail) delivering 14% EBITDA growth, offsetting energy weakness. Jio added 9.1M subscribers (524.4M total), ARPU grew 4% YoY to INR 214, and EBITDA margin expanded 230bps YoY to 56.2%. Retail posted record revenue of INR 98,000 crore (+11% YoY), with hyperlocal commerce orders surging 300% YoY. O2C faced severe headwinds from the Strait of Hormuz crisis, but agile crude sourcing kept throughput near capacity. Management highlighted strong momentum in 5G (268M users), Jio AirFiber scaling, and retail's omni-channel strategy. Risks include sustained geopolitical disruption, SAED impact on refining margins, and potential demand slowdown from high oil prices. Guidance remains qualitative, with focus on market share gains and digital services ramp-up.

Guidance read

Jio IPO imminent: IPO work is largely done; announcement expected in coming days. Jio to continue gaining market share: Expect subscriber growth and ARPU improvement from organic levers and 5G differentiation. Retail square footage to grow mid-single digit: Store footprint expansion will continue, especially in tier 2+ cities. Gigawatt-scale AI data centers progressing: Work on captive and partner data centers ongoing; gigawatt-scale centers to update in coming quarters.

Risk read

Key risks include Geopolitical disruption in Middle East — Strait of Hormuz blockade caused crude supply shortages, freight spikes, and margin compression; situation remains fluid.; SAED impact on refining margins — Reintroduction of SAED on diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel from March 27 will weigh on O2C profitability.; Retail margin dilution from quick commerce mix — Hyperlocal commerce growth is pressuring overall retail EBITDA margins; stabilization timeline unclear.; Oil & gas production decline — KG-D6 production declining ~8% YoY; mitigation through workovers and new wells may not fully offset..

Promise ledger

Of 2 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 2 missed.