Federal Bank Management Guidance Tracker
27 forward-looking guidance items tracked across 7 quarters.
Growth
Management confirmed they are on track to achieve 1.4% ROA by end of 2024, with an aspirational target of 1.5% over the next 18 months.
Q3 FY24Loan growth guidance of 18% maintainedActiveDespite deposit cost pressures, the bank expects to sustain loan growth of around 18%, with possible mix adjustments.
Q4 FY24Credit cost around 30 bps in FY25TrackedGuidance for credit cost to normalize to around 30 basis points in FY25, up from 23 bps in FY24.
Q1 FY25ROA improvement to 1.30-1.35%TrackedTargeting return on assets to improve from current 1.27% to 1.30-1.35% over the year.
Q2 FY25Loan growth guidance maintained at ~18%ActiveManagement reiterated loan growth guidance of around 18% for FY25, with focus on deposit mobilization rather than slowing advances.
Q4 FY25Loan growth to improve from 12%ActiveManagement expects overall loan growth to be better than the 12% reported for FY25, driven by mid-yielding segments and revival in gold loans.
Q4 FY25CASA ratio target of 36% over 3 yearsTrackedMD reiterated the strategic target to reach 36% CASA ratio over three years, from current ~30%.
Q3 FY26Loan growth of ~16% for FY27TrackedManagement indicated a target of high-teens loan growth, around 16% for the next fiscal year, driven by mid-yield segments.
Q4 FY26CASA ratio target of 36%TrackedManagement reiterated the medium-term target of 36% CASA ratio, achievable given recent strong momentum.
Other
The bank plans to bring its CD ratio down from ~83% to ~80% by calendar 2024 through balanced growth in deposits and loans.
Q4 FY25Credit cost guidance of 35-40 bpsTrackedCFO reiterated credit cost guidance of 35-40 bps for FY25, which was achieved at 38 bps.
Q3 FY26Blackstone fund infusion expected in Q4 FY26ActiveThe first tranche of strategic investment from Blackstone is expected to close in Q4 FY26, pending final regulatory approvals.
Margins
Management expects ROA to continue expanding by 4-5 basis points each year, driven by income growth and cost control.
Q1 FY25Credit cost guidance of 30-35 bps for FY25ActiveManagement expects credit cost to remain in the range of 30-35 basis points for the full year, consistent with Q1's 27 bps.
Q1 FY25NIM to sustain near Q1 levelsActiveNet interest margin expected to remain around Q1 levels for the next couple of quarters, with dynamic review thereafter.
Q2 FY25Credit cost guidance unchanged at 29-30bpsTrackedFull-year credit cost guidance remains at 29-30 basis points, supported by strong asset quality and conservative underwriting.
Q2 FY25ROA expected around 1.8% for FY25TrackedROA guided at ~1.8% for the full year, with potential slight improvement if rate cuts occur later.
Q4 FY25Cost-to-income ratio around 53%ActiveCFO guided cost-to-income ratio to remain in the 52.5%-53.5% range over the next few quarters.
Q3 FY26NIM to sustain around current levels in Q4ActiveManagement expects NIM to remain near 3.18% in Q4 FY26, as the full impact of the December rate cut will be offset by liability mix and asset repricing actions.
Q3 FY26Full-year credit cost guidance of 55-60 bpsActiveCredit cost for FY26 is expected to be in the range of 55-60 bps, with Q4 likely lower than Q3's 47 bps.
Q4 FY26NIM expansion to continueActiveManagement expects further NIM improvement through deposit repricing, liability mix shift, and asset mix optimization.
Q4 FY26Credit cost guidance maintained at 50-60 bpsActiveCredit cost guidance remains unchanged at 50-60 basis points, though subject to review based on geopolitical clarity.
Revenue
Expansion
Plans to add at least 100 new branches in FY25, continuing the network expansion strategy.
Q1 FY25Branch addition of ~100 in FY25TrackedPlans to add approximately 100 branches in FY25, with ~40 in H1 and balance in H2.
Q4 FY26100 new branches in FY27TrackedPlanned branch expansion of about 100 branches in the next fiscal year, supported by data-driven network strategy.