Vishnu Prakash R Punglia · risk themes across the available quarters.
Bear-case history
Water segment receivables of ₹500 crore have been stuck for 22-23 months. While management expects normalization in 2-3 quarters, analyst questioned whether execution can scale to ₹1,000 crore in H2 if cash collections remain constrained.
Analyst flagged that competitive intensity remains high with 5-6 bidders per project, raising concern about potential price undercutting pressuring margins.
An investor from South India directly challenged management on ₹90 crore of promoter stock sales that caused stock price to fall from ₹180 to ₹90, expressing deep disappointment and questioning whether alternatives like stock pledging were considered.
The ₹8.5 crore ECL provision taken purely based on aging (not recovery concerns, per CFO) suggests management is being highly conservative, potentially masking underlying asset quality issues.