Vikram Solar · risk themes across the available quarters.
Bear-case history
EVA and aluminum costs increased in Q4 due to crude oil and aluminum price hikes, partially offset by lower cell prices. EBITDA per watt guidance of ₹1.75-2 for non-DCR may be at risk if input costs rise further.
9 GW cell plant has a tight timeline with first cell by Dec 2026 and full ramp by Q2 FY28. Any delay could impact backward integration benefits and DCR margin capture.
For FY27, 2 GW of DCR modules rely on a procurement deal with Jupiter International. Any disruption in supply or unfavorable pricing could affect margins.
Exports to the US have nearly zeroed out; 1 GW of US orders may face execution challenges due to traceability and tariff issues. Management is exploring alternative supply chains.