Venky's (India) · risk themes across the available quarters.
Bear-case history
Day-old chick prices have fallen from 51 Rs in Q4 to 21-35 Rs by mid-May, and broiler bird prices dropped from 102 Rs/kg to 90-93 Rs. Management acknowledged this softening trend, which could compress Q1 margins significantly.
Crude oil prices at elevated levels linked to soy/corn via bio-diesel demand. Government ethanol policies creating corn price inconsistency. International prices from Brazil/Argentina already lower than domestic India prices, creating export competitiveness issues.
Analyst specifically asked about SPF division margins (current and forward); management responded 'We'll get back to you on this question' without providing any answer, suggesting potential underperformance or operational concerns not yet disclosed.
Venky's received a Competition Commission of India notice regarding parent breeding farm practices. While management stated Venkys India does not deal in those products and should not be affected, this represents regulatory uncertainty pending legal clarification.