VEDL Q4 FY24 earnings call.
A source-linked concall view: reported numbers, management language, guidance, commitments and risks that should carry forward.
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Revenue
₹35,509 Cr
verified against source
Revenue YoY
—
reported change
EBITDA
₹8,969 Cr
latest reported figure
Source
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record provenance
Actual signal trajectory
Where this quarter sits.
Quarter read
What the record says.
Vedanta delivered a steady Q4 FY24 with revenue of INR 34,937 crore and EBITDA of INR 8,969 crore, up 3% QoQ with 75bps margin expansion. Full-year FY24 revenue stood at INR 141,793 crore with EBITDA of INR 36,455 crore and 30% margin—driven by INR 10,000 crore cost savings YoY. Management characterized FY25 as transformative, targeting record volumes and margins through $1.9 billion growth CapEx deployment. Key expansions include Lanjigarh Train 2 (Q2 FY25), BALCO to 1MTPA (Q3 FY25), and ESL Steel to 3.5MTPA. Domestic demand outlook is robust at 15%+ for aluminium. On deleveraging, net debt fell INR 6,155 crore in Q4 to INR 56,388 crore with net debt/EBITDA at 1.5x. The demerger remains on track for FY25 completion pending lender NOCs. Risk factors include uncertainty around steel plant divestment timing, zinc international production ramp, and commodity price sustainability amid macroeconomic headwinds.
Colored figures show movement against the previous available record.
Guidance to track
- Based on spot commodity prices and management's volume/cost guidance midpoint; represents significant upside from FY24 given aluminium prices at $2,600/ton and zinc above $2,800/ton.
- Strategic investment to complete major expansions including Lanjigarh Train 2, BALCO 1MTPA, ESL Steel 3.5MTPA, and Gamsberg Phase 2, targeting 10% additional capacity through de-bottlenecking.
- Target range for FY25, down from $1,823/ton in Q4 FY24, contingent on coal mine ramp-ups (Kuraloi Q4 FY25, Radhikapur operational) and Sijimali bauxite mine commissioning.
- FY25 production range vs 118 KBPD in FY24, with production expected to increase through surfactant injection at Mangala, infill drilling, offshore jackup deployment, and new well stimulation programs.
Risks flagged
- Strategic sale of ESL Steel contingent on regulatory clearances in Q1 FY25; timing may slip to Q2 if clearances delayed. Management deflected on price range, citing confidentiality.
- Gamsberg facing overburden removal challenges, resulting in 160-180 KT MIC guidance vs historical targets. Phase 2 ramp-up delayed to Q2 FY26. Production behind schedule for multiple quarters.
- Only 5% of aluminium volume (~120 KT) and 2-2.5% of zinc (~30 KT) hedged despite commodity price volatility. Management cited forward curve in contango as rationale but coverage leaves significant upside unrealized.
- NCLT hearing postponed to May 17; lender NOCs still being received. While management expressed confidence, any delay in bank approvals could push FY25 completion target. Analyst raised debt-to-EBITDA allocation concern; management gave vague assurances.
Key quotes
- FY25 is going to be a transformative year for Vedanta, with the completion of most of our growth projects... We believe this is going to be our historically best-ever year in terms of volume, revenue, cost, and bottom line.
- If you simply look at our guidance value and transport with the spot aluminum, EBITDA will be no less than $6.5 billion. So over the next three years, cumulatively, our EBITDA will be almost $20 billion+, and we've got the cash flow of $7-8 billion.
- We have engaged with analysts and investors over the last few weeks. There has been significant inbound interest from marquee domestic and foreign investors. Over the last few months, our stock price has surged to a two-year high.
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