Vaibhav Global · risk themes across the available quarters.
Bear-case history
Despite starting in-house jewelry casting in US, overall product costs still increased 489bps due to tariffs on non-jewelry products. 5.5% tariff only applicable on value-addition portion per Custom Border Protection ruling.
Management admitted to shifting from low price-point ($10-30) to higher value customers, resulting in lower unique customer count in US. Previous cohort of budget customers may not be giving anticipated LTV.
Revenue run-rate stuck at $4 million since acquisition despite 75% gross margins. Management cited customer acquisition cost constraints as limiting growth. Q4 may see further degrowth before recovery in Q1 FY27.
Elevated gold/silver/platinum prices and lower consumer confidence causing customers to defer discretionary jewelry purchases across US and UK markets. No near-term relief expected.