Triveniengineeringand · risk themes across the available quarters.
Bear-case history
Order booking in Q3 was muted despite strong inquiry pipeline. Management attributes this to delayed customer decisions driven by geopolitical uncertainty, not business fundamentals. Even aftermarket orders—typically mission-critical—were deferred, which management found surprising.
The upcoming Cycle 2 tender (Q3-Q4 supply) will focus primarily on rice-based ethanol (NCI rice) followed by B-heavy and C-molasses. Maize-based ethanol faces marginal treatment, despite maize being the highest-margin feedstock. This may compress distillery margins in H2 despite lower rice costs.
Shamblali factory underperformed due to whitefly pest outbreak affecting rattoon crop, farmer practice issues from newer relationships, and equipment breakdowns. Management conceded it is fair to assume the unit will remain loss-making through FY26 and requires turnaround next year.
NY March contract at 14.7 cents/lb and London at 405.1—near historic lows. Global commodity weakness has sentiment impact on India. Management questions whether full 1 million MT export target will be achieved at these prices, though contracted quantities may still move.