Thermax · forward-looking guidance across the available source record.
Guidance tracker
Management expects Q1 to be a trough quarter with margin recovery in subsequent quarters barring unexpected hits, as sulfur recovery unit project (95%+ complete) and bio-CNG plants are now better understood.
Management expects good year for industrial products with double-digit order and revenue growth, driven by water, wastewater, air pollution control and international recovery.
From INR 175 crore base, chemicals business expected to reach INR 200-250 crore run rate in FY25 with Dahej plant utilization improving and construction chemicals scaling up.
Pipeline of 3 refinery projects (CPCL in H2, Paradip and Bina Refinery next year) and thermal power orders expected from split packages; CEA breaking projects into smaller boiler packages making them more manageable.
Management expects order inflow growth to accelerate to double-digits in FY26, driven by robust inquiry pipeline across power, cement, steel, and international markets. Industrial Products has been delivering double-digit growth, and Industrial Infra pipeline is the highest in four years.
Chemicals EBITDA margin is expected to recover to 12-13% in Q2 from Q1's ~9.3%, driven by volume ramp-up with new capacity utilization improving. Long-term target remains 16-17% as growth delivery catches up to investments.
International order book from exports (excluding Danstoker, PT TII) is targeted to cross INR 1,000 crore, with Middle East showing strongest traction (qualified at ADNOC, pursuing Aramco qualification). Southeast Asia and Africa pipelines developing.
Green Solutions portfolio expected to cross 300 MW operational capacity this fiscal year, with another 300+ MW in construction across Gujarat and ISTS projects (Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu). Equity investment of INR 400 crore planned at 30/70 debt-equity ratio for new projects.
FEPL currently has 200 MW operational plus 100 MW under construction. Board approved INR 700 crore equity investment for 600 MW target. Subsequent phase to scale to 1 GW by FY27-28.
Dedicated team developing first hydrogen electrolyzer product for India market, targeting September 2025 product release. Initial manufacturing capacity planned at 100-300 MW range.
Management expects Q3 and Q4 profitability to improve sequentially as the least profitable FGD projects complete execution and exit the project pipeline. The most challenging FGD project is in its final execution phase.
No new orders being taken in near term pending resolution of plant performance issues. Medium-to-long-term outlook remains positive given large market pipeline and expected government policy improvements for sector viability.
Management commits to at least 20% order growth year-on-year on total Thermax portfolio, driven by strong H2 with Q3 and Q4 expected to be up well above 30% each vs weak comparable base.
Management expects big revenue catch-up in Q3 driven by execution of INR 700 crore of water projects and overall strong H2. Expects Q3 and Q4 both to match Q4 FY25 levels.
New project orders expected at 5-8% PBT for domestic and 10%+ for international, with services included aiming for ~10% blended margins at PBT level for industrial infra going forward.
Currently at INR 200 crore quarterly order book; expects to reach INR 230-240 crore imminently in Q3 and INR 250 crore where business can return to 'teens' profitability.
Management expects Q4 to deliver revenues and orders exceeding INR 3,000 crore each, with profitability expected north of 10%. This guidance comes after a difficult Q3 where INR 500 crore revenue was deferred.
Project business profitability is expected to cross 5% next year from current 1-2% level, contingent on securing INR 250-300 crore quarterly project inflows to cover INR 80-100 crore base costs.
Company expects to start taking new Bio-CNG orders again in the second half of FY26 after current plant stabilization and technology understanding are completed. Only one Bio-CNG order taken this entire year.
Exports expected to be in the INR 2,000-3,500 crore range going forward, representing 25-30% of total revenue. Q3 was one of the highest export quarters ever.
Management expects Q4 to deliver double-digit revenue growth quarter-over-quarter, with backlog substantially better in quantity and quality, though full-year FY26 will not achieve double-digit YoY revenue growth.
Chemicals business targeting 13-14% EBITDA margins, recovering from current depressed levels, with North American market share losses reversing starting Q4 and continuing into next year.
TBSPL BioCNG projects to convert from loss to profit in Q4/Q1; FGD and NRL issues to fully resolve by Q2 FY27, leaving only NRL to close out next year.
Management signals upcoming capacity and CapEx investments in cooling business and TBWES in the coming year, citing potential capacity constraints before demand issues.
Management expects industrial infra segment to outperform FY25 levels, driven by pipeline in steel, power, waste-to-energy, and refining/petrochemical projects in H2 FY26.
Two new Bio-CNG orders expected in Q1 FY26 with established JV partners, featuring reduced yield guarantees aligned with current operational performance.
Bio-CNG expected to reach break-even to low single-digit profitability in FY26, with technology risk addressed and guarantees renegotiated.
FEPL losses expected to reduce significantly in FY26 due to resolution of insurance matter, interest capitalization changes, and improved execution.
Planned capex includes ₹150 crore regular and ₹100 crore for capacity expansions in boiler and cooling facilities.
Management expects better revenue execution in FY27 given the strong order backlog, though caution on execution delays and Middle East risks.
Mix shift towards biomass boilers and better export opportunities should aid margins, subject to commodity cost management.