Tejascargoindia · risk themes across the available quarters.
Bear-case history
Market hiring margin declined from 7.31% to 6.04% due to rising toll (8-9% increase) and insurance costs (0.9% to 1.1% of revenue). Management is renegotiating contracts but margin recovery is uncertain.
Captive diesel procurement benefit reduced drastically from 10-14% discount to only 3-4% over retail pump prices in H2 FY26, impacting cost competitiveness despite supply security.
New segments like mining logistics and EV fleet deployment (Dalmia cement 10-vehicle contract) require different operational capabilities and higher capex. Long-term contract profitability remains unproven.
Top 10 customers contribute 73% of revenue (improved from 84% in FY24). While improving, any loss of major corporate clients could significantly impact financials.