TCI Express · risk themes across the available quarters.
Bear-case history
MSME segment contributes approximately 49% of revenue; while management claims no customer attrition, analysts questioned whether MSMEs facing macro headwinds might shift to lower-cost logistics models (like CPL) rather than premium express services.
EBITDA margin of 11.6% remains below historical peak of 16%; management targets only 100bps improvement annually, reaching 15%+ only by FY28-29. The expansion phase in new services (Rail, C2C, Air) creates near-term margin pressure.
Net working capital cycle extended to 21 days from previous quarter due to festive season volumes and timing of collections; receivable days maintained at 60 vs industry benchmarks. CFO acknowledged this requires attention in coming quarters.
An analyst pointed out that the related party transaction policy link in the press release was not working. Management deflected by saying 'nothing new has been changed' without detailed explanation, creating a transparency concern for governance-sensitive investors.